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- Daily Energy Market Update November 5, 2026
Crude oil extended its decline early Thursday, reaching a new low for the move before managing a modest recovery. Wednesday's sharp selloff was driven largely by the Democrats' sweeping victory in the US midterm elections, which has raised expectations that political pressure on President Trump could make further escalation of the conflict with Iran more difficult. The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a negotiated settlement and the eventual return of disrupted Middle Eastern oil supplies.
The latest EIA report, released Wednesday, showed draws across all three major inventory categories, with crude stocks falling by 865,000 barrels, gasoline by 222,000 barrels and distillates by 3.565 million barrels. The report pointed to tightening US inventories, although the market's attention remained firmly focused on the US midterm election results and what they could mean for the future of the Iran conflict.
Crude has managed a modest bounce from its early Thursday lows. However, a diplomatic resolution remains far from certain. The situation in the Middle East remains fluid, and any renewed military action or disruption to regional oil flows could quickly put some of the geopolitical premium back into prices.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude initially traded lower overnight, printing a new low for the move at 86.65. The subsequent bounce has taken the market back above the lower Bollinger Band, after closing below it yesterday.
If the recovery continues, the 50-day moving average at 91.99 will be an important level to watch. The market also closed below this average yesterday for the first time in several weeks. A failure to close back over it could open the door for a test of the 100 day moving average (83.51).
Momentum is approaching oversold territory but continues to point lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
91.99 – 50-day moving average
93.66 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Friday's high to overnight low)
95.82 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
88.29 – Lower Bollinger Band
86.65 – Overnight low
83.51 – 100-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil also made a new low for the move overnight at 4.1398 before managing a modest bounce. The market has been unable to recover above the lower Bollinger Band (4.2794) after closing below it yesterday. This level will be important in the near term.
A close back above the lower band would open the door for a potential bounce toward the 50-day moving average at 4.5014. Failure to get back over the lower band would leave the market open to a test of the 100-day moving average at 3.9790.
Momentum is in oversold territory and approaching a bullish crossover.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.2978 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.3800 – Double bottom from Monday/Tuesday
4.5014 – 50-day moving average
Support
4.1398 – Overnight low
3.9789 – 100-day moving average
3.4211 – 200-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The spread made a new low for the move overnight, trading down to 12.68 before bouncing. Unlike crude and heating oil, despite yesterday's sharp selloff, price action remains contained within the Bollinger Bands.
Yesterday also marked the first close below the 50-day moving average in four weeks. If the spread continues to recover, the 50-day moving average at 16.21 and the 20-day moving average at 17.48 will likely provide resistance.
On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at 11.79, followed by the 100-day moving average at 11.06, will be important levels to watch.
Momentum is approaching oversold territory but continues to point lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
16.21 – 50-day moving average
17.48 – 20-day moving average
22.90 – Friday's high
Support
11.79 – Lower Bollinger Band
11.06 – 100-day moving average
10.48 – October 6 reversal bar low
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas was quiet overnight, trading in a relatively narrow range. However, the combination of yesterday's bullish engulfing candle, holding above Friday's low and momentum turning higher from oversold territory suggests the market has potential to extend its bounce.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.092 – Last Wednesday's high
3.144 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 14 high to October 30 low)
3.188 – 20-day moving average
Support
2.830 – Last Friday's low
2.670 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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