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- Daily Energy Market Update November 4, 2026
Crude oil is under pressure once again this morning, with optimism surrounding US-Iran negotiations remaining the dominant driver of market sentiment. Traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough that could ease regional tensions and restore disrupted Gulf oil supplies, weighing on prices as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds.
However, the downside remains somewhat contained. The US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island earlier this week and continued regional tensions are providing a degree of support, while a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories, with API reporting a 5.27 million-barrel decline, is also helping cushion the selloff. Notably, despite today's weakness, prices remain above Tuesday's lows, suggesting some near-term support is emerging following the recent sharp decline.
For now, the market remains firmly headline-driven, with traders weighing the prospect of a diplomatic resolution against the risk that renewed military escalation could quickly revive supply concerns.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude bounced after hitting a two-week low of 93.59, but still recorded its second consecutive close below the 20-day moving average (97.52), the first time it has done so in more than three weeks.
As long as prices remain below the 20-day moving average, the short-term bias remains to the downside. However, the key moving averages continue to trend higher, suggesting the broader technical picture remains supportive.
Momentum has also turned lower, having moved away from overbought territory towards more neutral levels over recent sessions. However, it continues to point lower, indicating that downside pressure remains in place.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
97.52 – 20-day moving average
97.94 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Friday's high to Tuesday's low)
99.29 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support:
93.59 – Tuesday's low
91.93 – 50-day moving average
89.80 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil printed a bullish reversal yesterday after hitting a new multi-week low of 4.3800. The reversal also pushed prices back above the 50-day moving average (4.4984), after closing below it on Monday for the first time in several months. This comes as momentum moves further into oversold territory, increasing the potential for a further retracement.
The key moving averages also remain supportive in the bigger picture, continuing to trend higher despite the recent weakness.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
4.6502 – 20-day moving average
4.8563 – Upper Bollinger Band
4.8585 – Last Monday's reversal bar high
Support:
4.4984 – 50-day moving average (prices were trading just above this level at the time of writing, 7:10 AM)
4.4436 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.3800 – Tuesday's low
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The spread found support yesterday at the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement before bouncing. However, it is back under pressure this morning and trading just above the 50-day moving average (16.14). The spread has not closed below the 50-day moving average in over a month, making this an important level to watch on a closing basis.
Momentum is pointing lower and has moved out of overbought territory. The short-term picture looks heavy, although the broader outlook remains supportive, with the longer-term moving averages continuing to trend higher.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
17.54 – 20-day moving average
19.17 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (Friday's high to yesterday's low)
20.05 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support:
16.14 – 50-day moving average (trading just above at 7:30 AM)
15.35 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (October 6 low to October 23 high)
11.89 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas traded lower initially overnight but has since recovered and is trading close to unchanged at 2.907 (7:45 AM). Prices have remained in a relatively tight range since making a new low on Friday, suggesting some consolidation following the recent selloff.
Momentum has been moving sideways in oversold territory since late October. However, neither price action nor momentum has provided a clear signal of a potential retracement or that the broader selloff is coming to an end. For now, the technical picture remains weak.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
3.092 – Last Wednesday's high
3.114 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 14 high to Friday's low)
3.212 – 20-day moving average
Support:
2.830 – Friday's low
2.769 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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