- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update November 3, 2026
Crude has rebounded this morning following Monday's sharp selloff, with U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island bringing some geopolitical risk premium back into the market. Crude traded as much as 3.8% above yesterday's low.
The rebound comes after losses of more than 7% on Monday, as hopes for progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations weighed on prices. However, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran and Washington remain far from reaching an agreement. Qatar continues to mediate, with both sides reviewing proposals.
The U.S. described the strikes on Qeshm Island as limited defensive measures targeting Iranian air-defense capabilities, amid concerns over further threats to commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The latest developments have shifted attention back to the risk of further escalation and potential supply disruptions.
Refined products are also higher. Heating oil (HOZ26) traded as much as 4.9% above yesterday's low, reaching 4.6010 before giving back some of its gains. It is trading at 4.5110 heading into the U.S. open.
Elsewhere, a Ukrainian drone attack reportedly damaged Russia's Yaroslavl refinery overnight, with fires reported at the facility.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude rallied overnight; however, the recovery has been relatively limited, retracing only approximately 50% of yesterday’s selloff. The advance is now stalling just below 98.84, a key confluence level that represents both last week’s channel support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from Friday’s high to yesterday’s low.
A failure to reclaim this level would reinforce the bearish near-term technical outlook and suggest that the overnight recovery is corrective rather than the beginning of a sustained move higher.
Momentum has crossed lower and is moving out of overbought territory, with the indicator continuing to point down.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance
98.84 – Confluence of last week’s channel support and 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement.100.07 – 50% Fibonacci retracement.
101.23 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Support
97.25 – 20-day moving average.
95.50 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October 6 low to Friday’s high.
93.25 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil traded higher overnight, reaching 4.5933 heading into the U.S. session (7:00 a.m. at the time of writing), following yesterday’s close at 4.4174.
The rally has pushed prices back above the 50-day moving average (4.4850), after heating oil closed below this level yesterday for the first time in nearly four months. A close back above the 50-day moving average would suggest that the broader bullish trend, reflected in the alignment of the moving averages, remains intact.
Momentum is beginning to turn higher, although it has yet to produce a bullish crossover. Confirmation of a momentum reversal would strengthen the case for a continuation of the move higher.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance
4.6517 – 20-day moving average.
4.8552 – Upper Bollinger Band.
4.8585 – Last Monday's reversal bar high.
Support
4.4850 – 50-day moving average.
4.4475 – Lower Bollinger Band.
4.2233 – October 6 low.
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The crude oil spread staged a relatively modest bounce overnight but has since given up its gains and is trading close to unchanged heading into the U.S. session (7:30 a.m.).
Yesterday’s sharp decline found support at the 16.85 level, where the 20-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement converge. Price action overnight has held above this support zone, making it an important pivot to watch during today's session.
Momentum has moved out of overbought territory and continues to point lower, suggesting that downside pressure remains in place in the near term.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance
21.49 – Monday's high.
22.90 – Friday's high.
23.49 – Upper Bollinger Band.
Support
17.33 – 20-day moving average.
16.85 – 50% Fibonacci retracement.
15.97 – 50-day moving average.
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Price action in natural gas was relatively muted overnight, with the market trading slightly higher at 2.885 heading into the U.S. open (7:50 a.m.), compared with yesterday’s close of 2.864.
The bullish divergence that formed with Friday's new low is worth watching for a potential bounce, but we still need to see some price confirmation. For now, there is a double bottom at 2.851, which is an important level to hold. A close above yesterday's high would be a positive sign and could signal a near-term bounce.
The underlying price structure remains bearish, however, with the key moving averages all trending lower. This could limit the extent of any recovery if we do see a bounce.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance
2.978 – Monday's high.
3.144 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 14 high to Friday's low).
3.241 – 50% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average.
Support
2.851 – Double bottom.
2.830 – Friday's low.
2.722 – Lower Bollinger Band.
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply