Daily Energy Market Update November 3,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

The crude oil is slightly lower, having traded either side of unchanged overnight. Prices were supported by OPEC+'s decision to pause output hikes in Q1 2026, but were hurt by weak manufacturing data from some regions.

OPEC+ --as expected ---decided to raise their oil production for next month by 137 MBPD. The market by trading higher is likely taking heart, though, from their announcement to pause any further production hikes during the first quarter of 2025 due to it normally being a lower demand period. The OPEC+ decision appears to be acknowledgment of the large surplus that the market faces, particularly early next year, as per ING commentary.

China’s factory activity growth in October missed market expectations, dragged down by a sharper drop in new export orders, as trade tensions with the U.S. intensified during the month, according to a private survey released Monday. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, dropped to 50.6 in October from the six-month high of 51.2 in September, missing analysts’ expectations of 50.9 in a Reuters poll. New export orders fell at the quickest pace since May, which the survey respondents attributed to “rising trade uncertainty.”  A gauge on employment at the factories, however, showed the first expansion since March, rising to the highest level since August 2023. One analyst cited by CNBC sees the manufacturing PMI improving in the next few months as a trade truce between the US & China was reached last week.

Euro zone manufacturing activity stagnated in October as new orders flatlined and headcount fell, despite production continuing to edge higher for an eighth consecutive month, a survey showed on Monday. The final HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, registered 50.0 in October, matching a preliminary estimate and up slightly from September's 49.8. But, export orders declined for a fourth consecutive month, acting as a drag on overall demand for European goods. One economist added,  "Job cuts continued and even picked up a bit. This is the result of weak demand, which is forcing companies to cut costs or boost productivity."  (Reuters)

The Energy Information Administration reported on Friday that U.S. crude oil output rose to a record 13.794 MMBPD in August.

The Baker Hughes oil rig count fell by 6 units in Friday's report.

Chinese and Indian refiners have started to seek other crude oil sources to replace some Russian barrels. India’s BPCL purchased 2mbbl of Upper Zakum crude for loading in December in a spot tender to replace oil from Russia, Reuters sources said. Refiners in China are looking to alternatives. Around 400kb/d are impacted or around 45% of China’s Russian oil imports, which is pressuring prices for Russian grades, Rystad said cited by Bloomberg.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday he believes some sectors of the economy are in a recession or at risk of one, blaming the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates fast, just one day after newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran warned of high interest rates triggering a recession in an interview with The New York Times. Miran said that the Fed is too restrictive. (Bloomberg/Forbes)

The latest positioning data for ICE Brent shows that speculators bought 119,046 lots over the last reporting week, according to ING reporting. The gross long increased by 56,968 lots, while the gross short fell by 62,078 lots. ICE Gasoil also saw a big move over the week, with speculators buying 33,930 lots over the last reporting week to leave them with a net long of 79,696 lots. This was likely fueled by concerns over Russian diesel exports.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum is negative for the energies.

WTI spot futures resistance at 61.45-61.50 was tested with the overnight high of 61.50. Above that resistance is seen at 62.17-62.20. Support lies at 59.64-59.60.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas --NG is up 5.3 cents at 4.177
NG spot futures are up today, having risen overnight to their best value since April 3rd, as feed gas demand hit a record over the weekend and weather forecasts turned cooler. The rise in NG futures pricing comes even as production is strong.

The weather forecast has added 13-17 HDD's. Parts of the U.S. are seen very cold on days 8 and 9 of the upcoming weather pattern. The Midwest & East will be 20-30 degrees below average.
 
Over the weekend, the LNG feed gas volume for export rose to a fresh record. On Saturday, LNG feedgas demand was said to have topped 18 BCF/d for the first time to a new record of 18.1 BCF/d, up a huge 6.3 BCF/d vs last year. There remains another approximately 1 BCF/d of demonstrated capacity not being utilized, according to Celsius Energy. On Sunday, though, some LNG volume was seen lost due to a problem at Freeport's facility, although news reports have operations restored to normal. Today's LNG feed gas volume is seen at 17.04 BCF/d, as per Bloomberg data, up from 16.4 BCF/d seen Sunday.

US domestic natural gas production is estimated down 0.966 BCF/d to 109.97 BCF/d today after rising to a record high of 110.94 BCF/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg data. On Friday, th EIA said that in August 2025, dry natural gas production increased year over year for the sixth straight month to a record 109.1 BCF/d. Production was 5.9% (6.0 BCF/d) higher in August 2025 than in August 2024 (103.1 BCF/d). The EIA added that gas consumption in August was down 3.0%/2.7 BCF/d year on year

The Baker Hughes gas rig count rose by 4 units in Friday's report.

Several options trades on the CME in Friday's activity caught our attention. Notably, the TTF options traded. The April through September Euro 30/25/20 put butterfly traded at a cost of 1.345 Euros, with .09 delta futures buys in the strip at Euro 29.75. Also the July, August, September Euro 30/25 put spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 0.75 Euro. In the LN/NG options, the August $6/$7 call spread traded 6.75 cents with delta futures sales at $4.08. Also, in the Calendar Spread Options (CSO), the December/January -30/-40 cent put spread traded 2.0 and 2.1 cents. Also, in the CSO's, the February/March 25 cent put traded 8.5 cents. 

TTF prices are up slightly today as the region’s gas reserves remain below last year’s levels, raising concerns about supply security. "According to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, European Union inventories are currently 82.8% full as the bloc heads into the colder season. The level is approximately 12% lower than last year and 8.2% below the seasonal norm, according to DNB. “There is now limited potential left for additional inventory builds as gas demand increases seasonally with lower temperatures,” analysts at the firm say. “Consequently, we head into the winter with significantly less storage flexibility than last year.” (WSJ)

Technically, NG spot futures have again tested the upper bollinger band on the DC chart in today's session and have also tested the weekly chart's upper bollinger band. Reuters commentary from Friday re NG futures said that the contract was "technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time in four weeks." They added :" For the week, the front-month was up about 25% after gaining 10% last week. That 25% gain would be its biggest weekly percentage gain since the contract rose by a record weekly percentage gain of around 33% in April 2024."

The DC chart upper bollinger intersects at 4.208 .The weekly upper bollinger band intersects at 4.180. Momentum basis both the DC and Weekly charts is positive and not yet overbought, though looks like it will be so in a day or 2 on the DC chart. Resistance for the spot futures comes in at 4.277-4.284, which was tested with the overnight high of 4.298. Above that resistance lies at 4.355.Support is seen at 4.103-4.109 and then at 4.045-4.046. The overnight low is 4.087.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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