Daily Energy Market Update November 28,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Overview
Crude oil is supported by some doubts regarding a Ukraine peace deal, as the special U.S. envoy is heading to Russia next week for further talks, with comments from Russian President Putin injecting some doubt into a possible agreement.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the outlines of a draft peace plan agreed by the U.S. and Ukraine could become the basis of a future agreement to end the war. (CNBC) But, Putin also said that Russia cannot make an agreement with an "illegitimate" Ukraine government, as it was not duly elected he adds. He reiterates that international recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, 'Novorossiya' (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) and the Donbas are non-negotiables in talks with the U.S. (Reuters)

Gasoil pricing is higher today as Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery again overnight. The 150 MBPD capacity refinery has been targeted 3 times this month. (Quantum Commodities)

Russia's seaborne oil buyers imported 23% less crude week over week in the seven days to Nov. 25. As US sanctions took effect, key buyers like India and Turkey curtailed their supplies. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, 20 MMBBL of Russian crude landed at foreign ports in the week to Nov. 25, down from a previous five-week average of 23.42 MMBBL. India remained the largest outlet, taking 12 MMBBL of crude, but deliveries fell from 16.6 MMBBL the previous week. China imported 5.2 MMBBL, down slightly from 5.8 MMBBL the previous week. (Platts) Russian crude exports to China are heading for the lowest since Feb. 2022 at about 825 MBPD in November so far, impacted by sanctions and limited import quotas, Kpler data shows.

Saudi Arabia is expected to lower its January crude price for Asian buyers for a second month to its lowest level for five years, tracking the decline in spot benchmark prices, sources said on Friday. A Reuters survey of 5 Asian refining sources see prices for the flagship A-Light crude grade being reduced by 30 to 40 cents. Prices would thus fall to a premium between 60 cents and 70 cents to the average of Oman/Dubai quotes, which would be the lowest seen since January 2021.

The DOE stats seen Wednesday showed crude inventories rose by 2.774 MMBBL, due to the sharp rise in net crude imports of 1.046 MMBPD, as crude oil exports fell by 560 MBPD and crude oil imports rose by 486 MBPD on the week. On the positive side, crude inputs to refineries rose by 211 MBPD to 16.443 MMBPD, which is more for the period than seen in either of the prior 2 years. Product demand was mixed with distillate demand falling and gasoline demand rising. Distillate demand on the week fell by 520 MBPD to 3.362 MMBPD, which was less than last year's demand of 3.718, but above demand seen in 2023 of 3.014 MMBPD. Gasoline demand rose on the week by 198 MBPD to 8.726 MMBPD---beating each of the prior 2 years demand of 8.506 and 8.206 MMBPD. Gasoline production rose by 286 MBPD to 9.557 MBPD, which is the main reason for the gasoline inventory build of 2.513 MMBBL.

The Baker Hughes oil rig count issued Wednesday saw a sizable drop of 12 units. Texas' rig count fell by eight to 226, the lowest since July 2021. Within Texas, the Eagle Ford Basin, which lies in mid-Texas, dropped 2 rigs and the Permian Basin dropped 3 rigs. The Permian is in Western Texas. The total U.S. oil rig count fell to 407 units, which is the lowest level since September 2021. But, there is a 6 month or more time lag that may occur before the rig count drop translates to oil production being reduced.

A Reuters survey of 35 economists and analysts see Brent oil prices averaging $62.23 in 2026. This forecast is down 92 cents from the forecast of $63.15 seen a month ago. WTI is seen averaging $59.00 in 2026. This forecast is down $1.23 from last month's.  Analysts largely expect the oil market to see a surplus in 2026, but "ongoing political risks will maintain a crucial risk premium, essentially preventing the price from dropping as low as the high supply would otherwise suggest.", as per a comment from the Reuters survey.

The RB and ULSD futures contracts for December expire today. The January Brent futures also expire today. Settlement on the CME for the futures contracts is expected to be held as usual at 2:30 PM (EST) today with the CME's platform then shutting down completely at 2:45 PM (EST).

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum for the RB on the January chart has turned positive, while the ULSD sees momentum to the downside very near oversold. WTI DC chart based momentum is turning neutral.

WTI spot futures have support at 58.20-58.22, which was almost tested with the current session's low of 58.27. Below this, support is seen at 57.66-57.68. Resistance at 59.06-59.11 has been tested with the session high of 59.17. Next best resistance seen lies up at 60.46-60.51.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 17.5 cents at $4.733
NG prices are at their highest spot futures price since March 10, supported by forecasts for cold weather and the continued record amount of LNG feed gas demand for export. On Wednesday, the EIA gas storage data showed a better than expected draw, although Wednesday's market reaction to the data was muted. 

Celsius Energy says that LNG feedgas demand topped 19 BCF/day for the first time Wednesday and Thursday. This is up 5.6 BCF/d from year ago levels, they add. Market News reports that today's feedgas supply to US LNG export terminals is almost unchanged on the day at a record high of 18.89 BCF/d.

U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated 0.559 BCF lower today after reaching another fresh high of 113.95 BCF/d yesterday, according to BNEF data.

Average Lower 48 temperatures are forecast below normal through the coming week but could rise back above normal into the second week of December, as per NOAA forecasts. The Midwest is seeing strong demand forecasts.

The EIA gas storage data seen Wednesday showed a better than expected draw of 11 BCF. This dropped total storage down to 3.935 TCF. This is 32 BCF (-0.81%) below year ago level. But, storage is +160 BCF (+4.24%) versus the 5 year average. Celsius Energy forecasts that the next 4 weeks total gas storage withdrawal will amount to 425 BCF. That would see the surplus to the 5 year average fall by 87 BCF; the large draw over the 4 weeks though will see the storage amount remain equal to last year's level, as per Celsius Energy's data analysis.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued Wednesday showed an increase of 3 units. But, the question is whether the large drop in the oil rig count will cause a drop in associated natural gas production over time.

Bloomberg data sees Chinese demand for LNG imports falling by 15% this year to 65 million tons. Next year's LNG import demand is seen at 73 million tons. Before the Ukraine conflict, Bloomberg had projected 2026 LNG imports rising to 100 million tons. Bloomberg sees this year's LNG import drop being a function of disappointing industrial demand coupled with "persistently" high global prices. The high cost of LNG has seen gas-fired power plants being faced with intense competition from coal and rapidly expanding renewables like solar and wind. Chinese LNG buyers, meanwhile, have more long-term supply contacts starting next year, But given that demand is deteriorating, they may choose to divert some fuel to places like Europe where prices are higher. This is likely to cement China’s role in balancing the global gas market, as companies there shift to becoming traders as well as consumers.

Technically momentum for the spot futures, basis the DC chart, has turned positive as the contract has risen over resistance seen at the high of 4.688 from 2 weeks ago. Next resistance is seen at 4.800-4.806 from January daily chart data. Support is likely at 4.585-4.586. 2 technical elements we see though give some pause to a bullish narrative. The spot futures are testing the DC chart's upper bollinger band that intersects at 4.690. Also the weekly NG chart has momentum that is overbought.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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