Daily Energy Market Update November 25,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies fell to session lows this morning as ABC News is saying that Ukraine has agreed to the terms of a peace deal. ABC News adds that minor details are still outstanding.

But, after the ABC News headline was issued, news from the Washington Post is putting some doubt into a peace deal. From the Washington Post: “U.S. and Ukraine finalizing peace deal but Russia likely to reject changes. Most analysts believe the latest changes will be unacceptable to Moscow, leaving Russia with the choice of trying to revise the draft deal once more or rejecting it outright.”

Further headlines have filtered out of the US/Ukraine talks aimed at achieving a peace deal. Reuters is saying, as per a Ukraine official, that the "most sensitive issues of a (peace) framework (are) to be discussed between Presidents Trump and Zelensky".

The oil market is thinking that sanctions against Russia may be lowered if a peace deal is agreed upon, "potentially boosting oil supplies into a market facing a glut." (Bloomberg)

Before this morning's headlines, Reuters commentary said that prices were lower overnight on overall supply concerns. On Tuesday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Moscow and Beijing have been discussing ways to expand Russian oil exports to China. Deutsche Bank sees a 2026 crude oil surplus of at least 2 MMBPD and no clear path back to deficits even by 2027, the bank said in a note on Monday. (Reuters)

Still, Russia and Ukraine exchanged fire on Tuesday, with loadings of mostly-Kazakh oil exported from a Russian port temporarily halted. Ukraine said it targeted the Tuapse oil refinery and an oil terminal at Novorossiysk — loadings often halt temporarily during drone attacks. (Bloomberg)

Some support for oil prices is said to be coming from increasing expectations the U.S. will cut interest rates at its December 9-10 policy meeting, with Federal Reserve members indicating their support for a cut. The interest rate cut possibility has led to some increased risk on sentiment. Hopes in the oil market are for increased demand and economic growth on the back of an interest rate cut. (Reuters)

WTI open interest on the CME rose by 19,461 contracts in Monday's trading. We believe that new length was added in the February through July contracts based on settlement prices and price action during the course of the session Monday.

The CME will have shortened trading hours  on Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday: Wednesday Nov. 26 will see regular hours. The market will open as usual Wednesday evening at 6 PM EST with the prices traded to be for settlement Friday Nov. 28. The market will close for a brief time Thursday from 2:30 PM to 6 PM EST. The  CME platform will re-open at 6 PM Thursday and stay open until Friday's close. Settlement pricing on Friday will occur at the normal time at 2:30 PM. The CME platform will then close early Friday at 2:45 PM EST. 

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum is negative for the energies. But, the RB chart's momentum looks to be waning to the downside and is such that within a day or so the contract will be oversold.

WTI has dropped to a fresh low for the recent selloff. The low currently is 57.33---breaking below the prior 2 lows of 57.38 / 57.42. The contract today again tested the DC chart's lower bollinger band, which lies at 57.61. Support below today's low lies at the low of 56.35 from October 20. Upside resistance comes in at 59.06-59.11 and then at 60.46-60.51.

.Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas-- January NG is down 23.1 cents at $4.441
NG futures are lower as the market has taken profit after the recent runup and the market reassesses the amount of gas in storage heading deeper into winter.

Celsius Energy detailed yesterday how the storage level will rise to the highest level this year versus the 5 year average. They add that the gas inventories will rise back to a surplus versus last year's level.  As per Celsius :"The gas surplus versus the 5 year average rose to +200 BCF for the first time since September and is set to rise to a 2025 high in the next 48 hours." They add the following opinion regarding NG prices as a result of the storage level: " Despite nearly equal storage levels, current prices are +44% higher compared to last year. This is one of the reasons why I continue to argue natural gas prices are overvalued near-term despite the otherwise favorable temperature outlook." 

 As would be expected, the headline of a peace deal in Ukraine drove the TTF European gas contact to a fresh low for recent trading. Today's low of Euro 28.975 has tested support at Euro 29.15-29.20. Below this support lies at Euro 27.900. The contract has again tested the DC chart's lower bollinger band, which lies at Euro 29.71. We wish to ask if a weakening TTF market will cause some drop in US LNG feed gas demand, given that so much of US LNG exports are now heading to Europe to make up for their loss of Russian supply in recent years. 

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC