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- Daily Energy Market Update November 2, 2026
Crude is sharply lower as hopes of progress in Iran-Qatar talks begin to unwind some of the geopolitical premium built into prices. A draft proposal is reportedly circulating, with another meeting possible. While there is no agreement at this stage, the lack of further military escalation over the weekend has been enough to see some risk premium come out of the market.
On the supply side, Reuters reports that nearly 1 billion barrels have been drawn from global oil inventories since the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to ADNOC's CEO. Diesel stockpiles in some regions are also at their lowest levels for this time of year in 35 years.
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts on Sunday, citing elevated supply risks, and warned that Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf oil output remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average. "Intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a more persistent risk premium remain the key triggers of potential upside," the bank said.
For now, diplomatic progress is weighing on crude, with the market trading the possibility of de-escalation rather than the ongoing supply disruption. There has also been speculation about possible US and Israeli strikes on Iran following this week's midterm elections. Any breakdown in talks or renewed military escalation could quickly bring some of that geopolitical premium back into prices.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude was down more than 3.7% overnight, hitting a low of $99.12. The move took prices to the bottom of the channel highlighted last week, with support coming in at the October 23 low of $98.84. Momentum has crossed back to the downside but remains in overbought territory.
The key moving averages are all still trending higher, suggesting the underlying uptrend remains intact despite the latest sell-off. It will be important to watch how crude responds if the selling continues, particularly with several key support levels sitting just below current market levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
104.99 – Friday's high
106.50 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
98.84 – Bottom of the channel
97.74 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 6 low to Friday's high)
96.96 – 20-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil fell 3.8% overnight, reaching a low of $4.4741, its lowest level in three weeks. The sell-off stalled right at the 50-day moving average, which is also sitting just above the lower Bollinger Band.
Momentum is near neutral but continues to point lower, suggesting there is still potential for further downside and a test of nearby support levels in the near term.
As with crude, the key moving averages are still trending higher, indicating the underlying trend remains supportive despite the recent weakness.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.6494 – 20-day moving average
4.7117 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (October 26 high to overnight low)
4.8585 – October 26 reversal bar high
Support
4.4741 – 50-day moving average
4.4474 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.2233 – October 6 low
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The spread also sold off sharply overnight and is now sitting near its overnight low of 18.66. Near-term support comes in at 18.46, which marks the bottom of the channel the spread has been trading in since its sharp rally on October 23 to a high of 23.22. Price has managed to hold within this channel over the past week.
Momentum crossed back to the downside with last night's sell-off. This marks the fifth consecutive crossover, with momentum continuing to move back and forth while remaining in overbought territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
22.90 – Friday's high
23.22 – Channel top
23.68 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
18.46 – Channel support
17.14 – 20-day moving average
15.84 – 50-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas is trading higher overnight after making a new low on Friday. That low produced a bullish divergence, with momentum making a higher low despite price moving lower. This suggests downside momentum is starting to fade and leaves room for a further retracement.
Momentum is also attempting to cross back to the upside while in oversold territory, which could provide additional support for a recovery in the near term.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.092 – Last week's high
3.144 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 14 high to Friday's low)
3.241 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.830 – Friday's low
2.789 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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