Daily Energy Market Update November 19,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are lower on the back of disappointing API petroleum inventory data, although some comments suggest the fall for crude oil is less than could have been due to the strength of the fuel markets that saw the distillate crack spread soar on Tuesday.

API                  Forecast        Actual
Crude Oil    +0.427/-1.3      +4.45
Gasoline        -0.1/-1.9        +1.55
Distillate        -0.5/-2.0        +0.577
Cushing            n/av              -0.8

The distillate cracks rose Tuesday largely on the back of lower Russian exports.  After Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy and port infrastructure, profit margins on diesel fuel surged in Europe, reaching their highest on Tuesday since September 2023, amid an increase in refinery margins globally. (Reuters)

Reflective of the strength in the distillate crack is the retail price for diesel in the U.S. Today, the AAA says that the diesel price at the pump is $3.783, which is up from the price of a month ago of $3.631. The retail price for gasoline today is $3.094, up from a price of $3.036. This week, the EIA showed a retail on highway price for U.S. diesel of $3.868, which is the best price seen since the week of May 6,2024.

Somewhat supportive for crude oil the past 24 hours has been the news that loadings at the key Russian port of Novorossiysk are running 2-3 days behind schedule due to jetty damage sustained in the Ukraine attacks seen recently. Some of the damaged equipment at one of the berths has yet to be fixed, which will make it hard for the port to immediately claw back the days of lost loadings and get back on schedule, a Reuters source said. The port could catch up on the backlog by the end of November as long as storms do not interfere with loadings, Reuters adds. Russia exported 760 MBPD through Novorossiysk in October, according to industry sources, though November volumes are expected to be lower. Novorossiysk accounts for approximately one-fifth of Russia's crude oil exports.

Also supportive is the news seen Tuesday that China continued to build its crude oil inventories. China stockpiled crude oil at elevated rates in October, at a daily rate of some 690 MBPD, up from 570 MBPD in September, a Reuters analyst reported. This stockpiling on the part of China has become a major reason for the relative stability of oil prices, Reuters commentary reads. Over the first ten months of the year, China was stockpiling crude at a daily rate of 900 MBPD, the Reuters report also said.

A negative for the energy markets is data from China seen yesterday that shows government fiscal spending in October fell by the most since "at least 2021", as per Bloomberg reporting. The fall was 19% from last year in October 2024. Bloomberg adds that budget policy “turned less supportive of growth.” This is in addition to sluggish consumption and weaker foreign demand being seen in China. Much of the government's budget decline came from less spending on infrastructure. “The government may continue to direct more resources toward local government debt resolution by year-end, rather than investment."

Energy Market Technicals

Technically crude oil and ULSD have positive momentum. But the crude price pattern remains a sideways one, while the ULSD has a mean reversion setup from Tuesday's close over the daily chart upper bollinger band.

WTI support for January futures lies at 58.66-58.71 and then at the low at 58.11. Resistance comes in at 60.28-60.31 and then at 61.14-61.18. The overnight high is 60.70.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas-- December NG is up 12.8 cents at $4.499
Natural gas prices have rallied further today off the back of a colder forecast for late November. The prospect for the first gas storage withdrawal in this week's EIA report is also seen as supportive. 

Weather forecasts turned colder for the central and eastern US toward the end of the November 23-27 period. (Barchart)

Feedgas demand remains strong with today's volume seen at 18.02 BCF/d compared to an average of 17.76 BCF/d so far this month. (Market News)

US domestic natural gas production was estimated down slightly to 110.14 BCF/d, but remain strong and in line with the 30 day average, according to BNEF.

The EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 12 to 18 BCF. This is versus last year's build of 3 BCF and the 5 year average build for the period of 12 BCF.

Technically momentum is negative, but the strong bounce Tuesday off of the $4.25 area suggests more of a trading range for spot futures prices at present. Resistance above comes in at 4.541 and then at 4.581-4.582. Support is seen at 4.376 and then at 4.316-4.323 from the December 60 minute chart.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC