Daily Energy Market Update November 17,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil prices are near unchanged while RB & ULSD are down around 1 cent. News wires tout the ongoing tug of war between supply risks associated with sanctions on Russian oil and Ukraine attacks on Russian energy infrastructure versus the prospects of supply surpluses touted by the major oil reports seen last week. Overnight crude prices slipped as loadings were seen resuming at the key Russian hub that was affected Friday.

The Russian port of Novorossiysk resumed oil loadings on Sunday, according to two industry sources and LSEG data. The terminal had been closed for some time Friday.

Iran confirmed on Saturday that its Revolutionary Guards had seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman off of the UAE coast carrying an "unauthorized"  cargo of petrochemicals bound for Singapore over alleged violations, Iranian state media reported. (Reuters)

Ukraine's military said on Saturday that it hit Russia's Ryazan oil refinery, and Kyiv's General Staff said on Sunday that the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia's Samara region had also been struck. (Reuters) These refineries have been hit before. The Ryazan refinery had been hit twice before over the last 3 months. In August 2025: An attack forced the refinery to halt half of its capacity.  (Kyiv Post)  Ukrainian drone strikes forced Rosneft's Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Russia’s Volga region to halt all primary crude processing on 19 October, Reuters reported.

On Friday, the UK  paused sanctions that will allow Bulgaria's Burgas refinery and related petrol stations, owned by Russia's Lukoil, to keep doing business with companies and banks. The U.S. has since followed suit. The Trump administration on Friday gave clearance to potential buyers to talk to Russia's Lukoil about buying its foreign assets and allowed business dealings with Lukoil's Burgas refinery after Bulgaria moved to seize the plant. The U.S. will only authorize a transaction involving the sale of those assets if it completely severs ties with Lukoil and if the funds from that sale are placed into an escrow account that Lukoil cannot access as long as it is sanctioned.   (Reuters)

The U.S. Treasury also issued a license to allow transactions with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and Tengizchevroil projects even if they involve the sanctioned oil companies. CPC is a pipeline bringing more than 1.6 MMBPD of crude. It crosses Russian territory and can be fully shut by Moscow if it decides it wants to retaliate against Western sanctions. (Reuters)

The EU Commission raised their GDP growth forecast for 2025 in their Autumn Economic Forecast. They see 2025 growth at +1.4%, up from their projection of +0.9% in their Spring forecast. Economic growth exceeded expectations in the first nine months of the year. Their 2026 GDP growth forecast remained unchanged at +1.4%. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu)

The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 12,636 lots over the last reporting week to 164,867 lots as of last Tuesday. This was predominantly driven by short covering. Speculators also increased their net long in ICE gasoil over the last week amid growing concerns over tightness in the middle distillate market. Speculators purchased 11,797 lots, leaving them with a net long position of 98,286 lots. ING adds :"The impact of sanctions on Russian diesel exports, along with continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, means tightness concerns are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, particularly as we head deeper into winter."

The WTI options for December expire today. The $60 strike has total open interest of nearly 43,000 contracts. This may act as a magnet for the December futures settlement today.

Energy Market Technicals

Technicals
Momentum basis the DC charts for the crude oils have turned upward--even as prices continue to trade in a range. Momentum for the products basis their January daily charts is still negative.

WTI spot futures have support at the overnight low at 59.32 and then at 58.83. Resistance lies at 61.02-61.09 and then at 61.50.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--- NG is down 14.0 cents at $4.426
NG futures prices are lower as near term weather forecasts turned milder over the weekend with many areas in the US to see above normal temperatures during the coming week. The bearish EIA data seen Friday and some long liquidation are said to have contributed to the sell off seen Friday.

Over the weekend, the near-term term temperature outlook trended milder for the November 19-26 period. (Celsius Energy) NatGasWeather reports that "much of the US warms above normal late in the week through next weekend." They see demand as light in the 4-12 day period then rising to moderate-to-high in the 13-15 day period.

The EIA storage data seen Friday showed a build of 45 BCF, which was 11 BCF more than news wires survey estimates. This seems to have been a function of an increase in production on the week of 1.6 BCF/d and a drop in demand of 0.7 BCF/d on the week, as per Market News data. One analyst adds : " mild temperature patterns expected for the remainder of November could bring further injections during the second half of the month, so we may not be at the official inventory peak just yet."

Technically the weekly NG continuation chart shows a mean reversion setup as the contract settled Friday over the upper bollinger band. That band lies currently at $4.76. Also, the stochastic momentum indicator basis the weekly chart is getting overbought. The DC chart shows momentum trying to turn downward from an overbought condition; yet, the spot futures are currently having an inside trading day versus Friday's price range.

Support for the spot futures is seen at the prior highs at 4.419-4.420, which has been tested this morning with a low of 4.409. Next support lies at 4.363-4.369. Resistance is seen at 4.550 and then at the recent highs at 4.581-4.582.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC