Daily Energy Market Update November 14,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher, supported by worries over Russian supply from a key hub, as well as by improved Chinese refinery demand.

The Black Sea port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone attack that hit an oil depot in the major Russian energy hub. The port paused oil exports and oil pipeline monopoly Transneft suspended crude supplies to the outlet, two industry sources told Reuters. Reuters reports that loadings have resumed at the port. Industry sources say crude oil shipments via Novorossiysk reached 3.22 million tonnes, or 761 MBPD, in October, with a total of 1.794 million tonnes of oil products exported. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which exports oil from Kazakhstan through a neighboring Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal, suspended oil loadings for a few hours and then resumed them when the air alert was lifted, sources said. (Reuters)

China's crude throughput increased 6.4% on an annual basis in October as refiners increased throughput to improve margins. Refiners processed 14.94 MMBPD in October. This was down from September's run rate of 15.26 MMBPD. But, according to data, the crude oil throughput between January and October was 14.75 MMBPD This is 4% higher than the same period in 2024.  (Reuters)

The DOE data seen Thursday disappointed for crude oil inventories with a large build of 6.413 MMBBL. ING reports that :" this leaves crude stocks at their highest level since June. But, seasonally, they are at their lowest level since 2014." The crude oil build was a function of an increase in net crude oil imports of 0.849 MMBPD--which translates to added supply of 5.943 MMBBL. Also adding to the build in crude oil is the rise in US crude production of 211 MBPD to a fresh record of 13.862 MMBPD. But on the bright side for crude oil is the sharp increase in crude inputs to refineries ---a prospect that we suggested in a recent update might occur; refinery runs rose by 717 MBPD to 15.973 MMBPD, but that figure is still less than that of 16.509 MMBPD seen 1 year ago. Product demand rose on the week to decent levels --although the demand for Distillates still fell below that seen in the prior 2 years. Distillate demand rose by 308 MBPD to 4.018 MMBPD---but that is below the demand seen the prior 2 years of 4.098 and 4.109 MMBPD. Distillate supplies fell by a total of 637 MBBL, but Padd1 --in which the NYMEX delivery location lies--saw inventories rise by 729 MBBL. This week saw distillate fuel production rise by 319 MBPD to a strong figure of 5.028 MMBPD. This may rise further in the coming weeks, with the prospect for higher refinery runs. Gasoline demand rose by 154 MBPD on the week to 9.028 MMBPD. This is below last year's level of 9.383 MMBPD, but above the 2023 demand of 8.949 MMBPD. Gasoline supplies fell by 0.945 MMBBL, which was below expectations for a draw of upwards of 2.0 MMBBL. Stronger production and reduced exports were to blame. 

About 1.4 MMBPD of Russia's oil, or almost a third of seaborne export potential, has been added to stocks held on tankers as unloading slows due to the U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, JPMorgan said on Thursday. Unloading cargoes could become much more challenging after the November 21 cut-off to receive oil supplied by the companies, the bank added.

Open interest in RB futures on the CME rose by 15,669 contracts in Thursday's activity. We suspect that these are more so new longs than shorts in the January through April strip.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum remains negative. but prices are well off the lows seen yesterday.

WTI spot futures sees support at 58.20-58.24. Resistance lies at 61.02-61.09 and then at 61.50.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 17.5 cents at $4.471
NG futures are lower as the market seems to have gotten ahead of itself with yesterday's rally as weather demand has been reduced in overnight forecasts. 

Thursday's rise to the highest spot futures price seen since late December of 2022 was attributed partially to colder weather forecasts---with some market commentary citing "mounting expectations for December heating demand. Also aiding the rally was the strong LNG export demand. We also suspect some short covering occurred--given open interest data seen for the December futures. There may have also been some support from a news story regarding a compressor station issue in the Permian Basin that was seen reducing supply, that was later found out to be a small amount for a limited time.

Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted cooler in the western half of the US in the November 18-22 period and turned colder for November 23-27.  Yet, some of the weather euphoria may be a bit ill-placed. Celsius Energy shows that GWDD's will be below the 5 year average from November 20 and possibly lasting through the end of the month, they say. Another market analyst suggested "current prices appear to embed an outsized risk premium for cold weather and potential supply disruptions." One trader added that the market "is trying to put in a little top here."
 
The EIA gas storage data due out this morning at 10:30 AM (EST) is seen as a build of 34 BCF as per news wire estimates. This compares to last year's build of 45 BCF and the 5 year average build of 35 BCF. This is likely the last injection for the season, as per many comments seen.

NG futures open interest data from the CME from Thursday's trading shows an increase of 12,992 contracts, even as December open interest fell by nearly 14,000 contracts. The December decrease is likely mostly a function of short covering, we believe. The increase seen in the January, March and April months we take to be mostly new length.

Technically NG has momentum basis the stochastic indicator that is neutral, although it remains at an overbought area. The RSI indicator has fallen just below 70 on the back of the steep overnight drop in NG pricing. The past 3 highs at 4.581-4.582 and 4.688 provide current resistance. Support comes in at 4.419-4.420 and then at 4.363-4.369.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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