Daily Energy Market Update November 13, 2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher now after dipping overnight--shaking off the IEA's report showing they suggest a wider oil surplus than they had previously forecast. Prices are seen rising today recouping some of the sharp fall from yesterday. Some lingering concern regarding Russian sanctions is seen supporting prices.

The IEA, in today's monthly report, raised their global oil production estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 0.1 MMBPD. Global oil supply will grow by around 3.1 MMBPD to 106.3 MMBPD in 2025, and by 2.5 MMBPD to 108.7 MMBPD next year. But, the agency also raised their global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 70 MBPD to 770 MBPD, citing increased needs in petrochemical plants. The IEA drew attention to a sharp rise in global oil inventories, which rose to their highest since July 2021 in September at just under 8 billion barrels. The increase was driven by a sharp increase in waterborne oil in storage, which rose by 80 million barrels in September. Some of the oil on the water increase though is a function of greater Mideast loadings and longer haul shipments from producers in the Americas to markets East of Suez. By contrast, stocks on land, with the exception of Chinese crude oil and US gas liquids, remain low across key pricing hubs. But, the IEA says that risks to their forecasts "remain plentiful" given Russian sanctions' impact is "yet to become clear" and due to tariff turmoil.

With regard to refining and product stockpiles, the IEA says that global refinery runs slumped by 2.9 MMBPD month on month to 81.5 MMBPD in October, but are set to increase sharply towards year-end. Middle distillate markets appear particularly tight with limited potential for relief, they add.

In the EIA's STEO released Wednesday, they said that they see oil inventories continuing to grow thru 2026 putting downward pressure on oil prices, but they raised their 2026 average prices forecasts from last month as "a result of updated assumptions about inventory builds in China and sanctions on Russia." They see WTI averaging $51.26 in 2026, which is up $2.76 from their forecast from last month. The EIA raised its global oil production estimates from those seen last month by 0.1 MMBPD in 2025 to 106.0 MMBPD and by 0.2 MMBPD in 2026 to 107.4 MMBPD, while also raising global oil demand by 0.1 MMBPD in both 2025 ( to 104.1 MMBPD)  and 2026 ( to 105.2 MMBPD). "Because China's inventory builds have been strategic, they have partly acted as a source of demand, limiting downward price pressures more than our estimated balances would otherwise suggest," the EIA said. The agency is also assuming that U.S. sanctions will push up the costs and risks of shipping Russian oil, leading Russia's production in the first quarter of next year to be 100 MBPD lower. The EIA raised their US oil production estimates from last month's forecast. Production in 2025 is seen at 13.59 MMBPD, up from the 13.53 MMBPD figure seen in October, while 2026 production is seen at 13.58 MMBPD, up from October's forecast of 13.51 MMBPD.

API                 Forecast          Actual
Crude Oil     +0.4/+2.1          +1.3
Gasoline      -1.0/-2.0            -1.4
Distillate     +0.5/-2.15        +0.944
Cushing         +0.396            -0.043
Runs            +0.3/+0.6%        n/av

Marathon’s Galveston Bay refinery is restarting the last repaired section of the residual hydrotreater (RHU) according to Reuters sources late on Wednesday following recent fire damage. Marathon said on its Q3 call that the hydrocracker was expected to restart before the end of November.

Oil Pric.com details how the Indian Oil Corp. (IOC) has set tenders for oil purchases for December and for 2026. IOC is looking to buy non-sanctioned Russian crude oil for delivery in early 2026. IOC has already bought about 3.5 MMBBL of Russia’s ESPO crude at about the same price as the Dubai quotes for delivery at an eastern Indian port in December. IOC is also looking to buy 24 MMBBL of crude oil from the Americas in the first quarter of next year to replace lost Russian supply. Indian refiners are pivoting away from Russian crude and are buying additional barrels from the Middle East and the Americas to offset what is expected to be a steep decline in Russian loadings in December and January. 

Reuters reports Lukoil submitted a request for an extension to the US Treasury deadline prohibiting transactions with the Russian-based company after November 21st.

 The G7 foreign ministers reaffirmed “unwavering support for Ukraine," and acknowledged "leveraging immobilized Russian Sovereign Assets" (Market News)

Energy Market Technicals

Technically RB momentum has turned downward basis the DC chart. ULSD and crude oil have negative momentum as well.

WTI spot futures support at 58.20-58.22 was tested with today's low. Below that support lies at 57.68. Resistance comes in at 60.46-60.51.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 0.9 cents at $4.542
NG futures are up slightly now, after trading lower overnight as the weather is seen as not so strong as to increase demand solidly enough.

NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "A colder trending weather system is expected into the Great Lakes and Northeast early next week with lows of 10s-30s for a modest bump in national demand, but not strong with most of the rest of the U.S. still relatively comfortable," the forecaster says. Another comment re the weather says that milder temperatures will dominate over the next 2 weeks following the Arctic blast that hit much of the US the past 2-3 days. As per the NOAA, Lower 48 temperatures are forecast above normal into the weekend but expected to fall from a peak around Nov. 15 and back near normal next week. NOAA 6-14 day charts still show below normal in the west but above normal in eastern areas.

The EIA raised their NG price forecasts for 2025 ( by 5 cents to $3.47) and 2026 (+8 cents to 4.02) as they see LNG exports increasing, while production growth is seen staying flat. But, they raised their production estimates from last month. NG output is seen at 107.7 BCF/d, up 0.6 BCF/d from last month's estimate, while the 2026 average output is seen at 107.8 BCF/d, up 0.4 BCF/d from the October estimate. The EIA lowered their October 2025 End Of Season (EOS) inventory estimate to 3.950 from October's estimate of 3.978 TCF, but raised their March 2026 EOS inventory estimate to 2.000 TCF --from 1.990 seen in October.

US domestic natural gas production was yesterday holding strong at 111.46 BCF/d compared to an average of 111.1 BCF/d so far this month, according to BNEF.

A Reuters analyst writes how 6 US states have turned to using more coal for power generation as gas prices have risen. These six key states have roughly equal-sized generation shares from coal and gas within their electricity mixes, and so have the capability to replace one fuel with the other whenever market conditions dictate. Additional coal-for-gas switching is likely in areas where utilities are under pressure to keep power bills in check even as demand rises. U.S. coal prices this year have averaged around 20% less than gas prices and have risen only 7% from 2024's average, data from LSEG shows, while gas prices are up 44% from a year ago. Total U.S. coal-fired electricity production through the opening seven months of the year increased by around 16% from the year before, Ember data shows. Over the same period, U.S. gas-fired generation declined by around 4%, in response to some of the cost-saving efforts underway at several utilities. But the "Key 6" states increased coal usage by 26% so far in 2025, while their collective gas use has dropped by 9%, Ember data shows.

Chevron’s CEO has said the LNG market will be oversupplied for ‘a period of time’ and sees LNG prices ‘pressured’ due to high supply. (Market News)

Notable from Wednesday's settlements in NG futures is the fact that the December contract settled down 3.2 cents and January settled down 2.0 cents, while the strip from February to October settled anywhere from +0.3 to 1.0 cents higher. We see this as 1) profit taking and (2) a possible re-evaluation of the value of the 2 front months relative to the rest of the strip.

Technically the stochastic momentum indicator basis the DC chart is neutral at an overbought level, while the RSI indicator continues to register a reading over 70, which signals an overbought condition. Resistance lies at the double top from Tuesday/Wednesday at 4.581/4.582 and then at 4.653-4.660 from data from the December daily chart. Support lies at the prior highs at 4.419-4.420 and then at 4.363-4.369.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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