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- Daily Energy Market Update November 12, 2026
Crude prices are lower this morning, giving back some of yesterday's gains as hopes for progress on Iran and Russia-Ukraine peace efforts weigh on the market. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a major prisoner exchange following talks in Abu Dhabi, but significant differences remain over key issues, including territory. There was no major breakthrough toward ending the war, although the renewed diplomatic activity is keeping hopes for a potential resolution in the market.
Meanwhile, differences between Washington and Tehran remain over the nuclear issue. Iran's security chief has reiterated that Tehran will not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, while Washington continues to insist that nuclear issues be part of any initial agreement. The disagreement remains a major obstacle to negotiations.
The market is also weighing the potential return of Middle Eastern supply. Although crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have moved closer to pre-war levels, physical crude availability remains tight. Exporters continue to rely on alternative routes and shipping arrangements, while ongoing security risks complicate a full recovery in normal shipping operations.
On inventories, API data released Tuesday showed US crude stocks rising by approximately 9 million barrels for the week ending November 6. The market will look to today's EIA report for confirmation of the build. Separately, OPEC+ crude production increased in October, led by higher output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude traded lower overnight and is coming into the U.S. open at 85.94 (6:45 a.m.). The technical picture remains largely unchanged from yesterday, with initial resistance at 91.94 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). On the downside, initial support comes in at the 100-day moving average (84.30), followed by Tuesday's low for the move at 83.88.
Momentum remains oversold but is moving sideways, highlighting the lack of a clear directional bias at the moment.
Resistance
91.94 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 30 high to Tuesday's low)
92.49 – 50-day moving average
94.44 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
83.84 – Lower Bollinger Band
83.88 – Tuesday's low
78.97 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil is coming into the U.S. open (7:00 a.m.) essentially unchanged, following a modest overnight range. Price action has remained within yesterday's range, creating an inside day so far. Yesterday's high stopped just short of the first key resistance level we identified at 4.3247 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Most of the key levels remain unchanged, with the exception of the moving averages and Bollinger Bands, which adjust daily.
Momentum did cross higher while in oversold territory, but it has crossed back and forth over the past week, offering little confirmation of a sustained directional shift.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.3247 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 26 high to yesterday's low)
4.4266 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
4.5144 – Confluence of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement just above at 4.5285
Support
4.0696 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.0429 – 100-day moving average
3.9947 – Tuesday's low
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
BrentWTI Jan
The arb briefly traded above its 200-day moving average (-6.46) on Tuesday but failed to hold the level, closing back below it. Wednesday's close was also back below the 100-day moving average, and overnight price action has remained below that level. With the key moving averages still trending lower and the market unable to sustain closes above either the 100-day or 200-day moving average, the arb appears to be losing momentum on the recent move higher. A pullback toward the 50-day moving average (-8.93), which has been a pivotal level for the arb, is possible.
Momentum also suggests the recent move has become extended. It remains in overbought territory but has now crossed over and is pointing lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
-7.14 – 100-day moving average
-6.46 – Confluence of the upper Bollinger Band and 200-day moving average
-5.93 – Tuesday's high
Support
-8.93 – 50-day moving average
-9.36 – 20-day moving average
-9.94 – Friday's bullish reversal bar low
BrentWTI Jan
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas briefly traded through key resistance at 3.338 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) yesterday but failed to hold above it, closing back below the level. Overnight price action has also remained below resistance. The key moving averages continue to trend lower, highlighting that the underlying downtrend remains intact despite the recovery that began on November 2.
In the near term, natural gas is trading between the 50-day moving average (3.318) and the 20-day moving average (3.100). A close above the 50-day moving average would open the door for a test of the upper Bollinger Band at 3.426. Failure to break above it would leave natural gas vulnerable to a resumption of the broader downtrend.
Momentum remains overbought and is starting to turn lower, although it has not crossed down yet.
Key Levels
Moving Averages
3.318 – 50-day moving average
3.517 – 100-day moving average
3.933 – 200-day moving average
Resistance
3.338 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
3.426 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.517 – 100-day moving average
Support
3.180 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 30 high to yesterday's low)
3.114 – Confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average
3.047 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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