Daily Energy Market Update November 12,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are lower-led by the ULSD. The prospect of oversupply weighing on prices. The sharp rally seen in the ULSD Tuesday was said to have supported the crude oil. The EIA monthly oil market report will be issued today. A stronger US dollar is also seen weighing on oil prices today, as per news wire commentary. 

OPEC, in its monthly oil report seen today, moved away from its prior projections for supply and now says they see a surplus of 20 MBPD in 2026. In October they forecast a deficit of 50 MBPD and in September they saw the deficit at 700 MBPD. OPEC kept their oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged. Demand growth for 2025 is seen at +1.3 MMBPD and for 2026 +1.38 MMBPD. But, they raised their Non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast for 2025 by 110 MBPD from 810 to 920 MBPD. Non-OPEC+ supply growth for 2026 was kept unchanged at +630 MBPD.  While demand ‌is seen as steady, OPEC said in the report that OPEC+ in October cut output by 73 MBPD to 43.02 MMBPD, despite the group's output hike agreement for the month, led by a drop of 155 MBPD in ⁠Kazakhstan and Iran falling by 66 MBPD. (Reuters/Bloomberg)

Global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, departing from its previous expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels and predicting that the world will likely fail to achieve climate goals. In its annual World Energy Outlook published on Wednesday, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will hit 113 MMBPD by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption. This year’s outlook ditched the pledges of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century. The international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges back to one that takes into account only existing policies.

Regarding air travel in the US : growth in bookings for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday has halved to about 1% since the end of October, according to aviation ‌analytics firm Cirium, reflecting trepidation among travelers as the shutdown lingered. Industry officials caution that operational disruptions are likely to persist even after the government reopens. Air tickets sold through U.S. travel agencies for travel through the end of November fell 10% year-on-year last month, according to Airlines ⁠Reporting Corp. (Reuters)

The retail diesel fuel price at the pump in the US has risen to $3.757 today, as per data from the AAA. One week ago the price was $3.705. One month ago the price was $3.665 and one year ago it was $3.547. Is the retail price a function of demand? or more so a function of supply, given that refinery runs have been relatively low of late. An estimate seen from Reuters is calling for runs to increase by 0.5% in this week's oil data.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically the ULSD DC chart is showing momentum that has turned downward from an overbought condition. RB momentum is positive, while that for the WTI looks to be turning neutral, befitting the sideways price action that we have highlighted for the past week.

WTI spot futures see resistance at 61.09 and then at 61.50. Support lies at 59.41-59.43 and then at the recent low at 58.83.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 2.0 cents at $4.545
NG futures are lower today as some suggest that the rally seen Tuesday was overdone. Technical indicators suggest such. Production remains strong.

US domestic natural gas production was yesterday holding strong at 111.57 BCF/d compared to an average of 111.08 BCF/d so far this month, according to Bloomberg data.

Tuesday's rally was said to have been a result of a shift in weather forecasts and the record LNG feed gas demand. Forecaster Vaisala said Tuesday that the midday update to the Global Forecast System weather model shifted colder in the North Rockies and in the Northeast for November 14-18.  Also, forecasts moved colder in the central US for November 21-25.  (Barchart) The NOAA shows temperatures in the Eastern half of the US will be above average in the Nov. 19 thru 25 period. Commentary seen on WSJ says with regard to current weather that : " Residential and commercial demand eased as the Midwest and midcontinent warmed slightly, while fading chill in the southeast lowered power-sector demand, Gelber & Associates says in a note. "Price is higher, but the balance loosened as space-heating moderated and burns cooled even as export pull stayed strong," the firm adds.

LNG terminal feedgas is today estimated 0.101 BCF/d lower at 18.21 BCF/d compared to an average of 17.52 BCF/d so far this month. (Market News)  A Reuters analyst said:" Traders expect rising exports to clear excess inventories before the end of winter 2025/26."

Much is being made of the fact that Tuesday's settlement for the spot NG futures ($4.565) was the highest since late December 2022. We only wish to add that on December 2,2022 the EIA storage inventories stood at 3.462 TCF. Last week's inventory level was 3.915 TCF; the prospect in our view is for beginning December gas storage to be at best 3.750 TCF.

Comments seen re the sharp rally seen Tuesday include : " Defying gravity"..."the price run-up was too fast, one trader said, adding "It's got to stop at that $4.60 level, and in an overreaction you might get that."..."thinking (NG price) doesn’t sustain up here."

Technically the DC chart shows the stochastic momentum indicator as overbought and the RSI continuing to show a reading over 70 also suggesting the contract is overbought. The volume traded in NG futures on the CME on Tuesday was very heavy at 694,758 contracts lending some credence to a top in place. There is currently a double top on the DC chart from yesterday/today at 4.581 / 4.582. Above that resistance comes in at 4.653-4.660. Support lies at 4.419-4.420 and then at 4.351-4.355. The weekly chart upper bollinger band is being tested. The band lies at the $4.52 area.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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