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- Daily Energy Market Update November 11, 2026
Crude prices are higher this morning, rebounding from yesterday's two-month lows as hopes for an imminent resolution to the conflict with Iran begin to fade. Iran's security chief said Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, a position that complicates negotiations with Washington, which has insisted that nuclear issues be part of any initial agreement. The comments have raised doubts about the prospects for a quick resolution.
The market is also continuing to focus on attacks against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker was struck off the coast of Oman on Tuesday, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said two other tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines while traveling through what Tehran described as unauthorized routes. Even if a deal is reached, restoring normal shipping flows could take time given the risks surrounding mine clearance, insurance costs and vessel security.
On the supply side, API data showed US crude inventories rising by approximately 9 million barrels last week. The official EIA inventory report has been delayed until tomorrow. Separately, a drone attack caused a fire at Russia's Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga, while Ukrainian drone attacks have reportedly reduced Russian refining capacity by around 30% since late October.
The market is attempting to balance fading hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution against the potential for further supply disruptions. While Trump's comments helped drive crude lower earlier in the week, the latest developments suggest that the geopolitical risk premium may be difficult to unwind completely.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude bounced off the 100-day moving average yesterday and continued higher overnight. Tuesday produced a bullish reversal, making a new low for the move before closing above Monday's close. Volatility has risen to multi-month highs following the sharp swings over the past week, while momentum remains pointed lower and is still in oversold territory.
A break below yesterday's low at 83.88 would open the door for a test of the 200-day moving average at 78.84. On the upside, if the retracement continues, the first resistance level comes in at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 91.94.
Key Levels
Resistance
91.94 – 38.2% Fibonacci (October 30 high to yesterday's low)
92.48 – 50-day moving average
94.44 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
84.74 – Lower Bollinger Band
83.88 – Yesterday's low
78.84 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil briefly traded through the 100-day moving average (4.0305) yesterday before recovering most of the day's losses. The recovery from the lows continued overnight, with heating oil trading near its session high of 4.2236 as of 7:10 a.m. Volatility is expanding to multi-week highs, while momentum remains oversold and pointed lower.
For now, 4.3247 is the first resistance level to watch if the retracement higher continues, while 3.9947 remains the key downside level if the market comes under renewed pressure.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.3247 – 38.2% Fibonacci (October 26 high to yesterday's low)
4.4266 – 50% Fibonacci
4.5285 – Confluence zone (61.8% Fibonacci / 20-day and 50-day moving averages)
Support
4.1162 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.0305 – 100-day moving average
3.9947 – Yesterday's low
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The spread printed a double bottom yesterday, holding just above support at the 100-day moving average (11.48). The bounce off yesterday's low continued overnight, with the spread trading at 13.57 heading into the US open (7:30 a.m.), up approximately 1.8% from yesterday's low. Initial resistance comes in at 15.96, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The double bottom remains the key level to watch on the downside, particularly on a closing basis.
Momentum remains oversold and continues to point lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
15.96 – 38.2% Fibonacci (October 23 high to this week's double bottom)
16.46 – 50-day moving average
17.34 – 50% Fibonacci (17.53 is the 20-day moving average)
Support
11.74 – Lower Bollinger Band
11.47 – Double bottom and 100-day moving average
8.26 – 200-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas retraced higher overnight, reaching the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with the session high aligning closely with that level. The 50-day moving average (3.326) also comes in just below, creating a significant resistance zone. This is the first test of the pivotal 50-day moving average in over a month. The key moving averages are still trending lower, which could limit further upside from here. A close above the 61.8% retracement would open the door for a test of the upper Bollinger Band at 3.491, while failure at this resistance zone could see the broader move lower resume.
Momentum is approaching overbought territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.338 – 61.8% Fibonacci (50-day moving average at 3.326)
3.491 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.525 – 100-day moving average
Support
3.148 – 38.2% Fibonacci (October 30 low to overnight high)
3.117 – 20-day moving average
3.088 – 50% Fibonacci
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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