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- Daily Energy Market Update November 10, 2026
Crude prices are lower this morning, extending yesterday's selloff as President Trump signaled that the conflict with Iran could be nearing an end. Trump said Monday that the war could end "fairly soon" and that Tehran was "talking very politely" with Washington. He also said he plans to hold off on further military action following appeals from regional leaders, including Qatar's prime minister.
Brent briefly fell below $90 overnight for the first time since August 31. The market is continuing to unwind the geopolitical risk premium as expectations for de-escalation improve. However, attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, and the US naval blockade remains in place.
A deal remains far from certain. The US has rejected Iran's proposed terms, and officials on both sides have expressed doubts about the prospects for an imminent agreement. Risks to regional infrastructure and shipping remain.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude made a new low for the move overnight, trading down to the 100-day moving average at 83.98 before bouncing. This marks a new low for the move. The last time crude closed below the 100-day moving average was in early August, making this a key level to watch on a closing basis. A clear break below it would open the door for a test of the 200-day moving average at 78.71.
Momentum is oversold but continues to point lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
85.68 – Lower Bollinger Band (trading just below this level at 7:00 AM)
91.94 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 30 high to overnight low)
96.48 – 20-day moving average
Support
83.98 – 100-day moving average
78.71 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil also made a new low for the move overnight, trading down to 4.0250 before bouncing. The low held at the 100-day moving average, which will be an important level to watch on a closing basis. The last time heating oil closed below the 100-day moving average was in early July. A break and close below this level would open the door for a test of the 200-day moving average at 3.4518.
Momentum has crossed back lower and is moving deeper into oversold territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.1343 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.3434 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 26 high to overnight low)
4.4418 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
4.0165 – 100-day moving average
3.4518 – 200-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The spread made an overnight low of 11.47, just above the 100-day moving average at 11.38, after holding support yesterday as well. Yesterday's close was the lowest in over three weeks, but price is still trading within the broader range and inside the Bollinger Bands.
A close below the lower Bollinger Band and the 100-day moving average, which are closely aligned, would open the door for a test of the 200-day moving average at 8.19.
Momentum is oversold but continues to point lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
15.96 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October high to overnight low)
16.45 – 50-day moving average
17.34 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
11.40–11.50 – Double bottom and 100-day moving average
10.48 – Bullish reversal bar low from October 6
6.00 – 200-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas is higher overnight, trading at 3.273 as of 7:30 AM. A close above 3.205 today would mark the sixth consecutive higher daily close.
Yesterday's high corresponded with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of October's move from high to low. Prices broke above that level overnight, and the next key resistance to watch is 3.329. This is a confluence area where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lines up with the 50-day moving average. A failure at 3.329 would open the door for a retest of the October low, while a break and close above resistance would open the door for a test of the 100-day moving average at 3.532.
Momentum is moving toward overbought territory and continues to point higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.329 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average
3.532 – 100-day moving average
3.548 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.128 – 20-day moving average
3.112 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October low to overnight high)
3.058 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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