Daily Energy Market Update November 10,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil is higher, supported by a better than expected Chinese CPI figure and by the prospect of the U.S. government shutdown ending, thus raising demand.  We suspect that the news of a Lukoil force majeure in Iraq is also supporting prices.

The U.S. Senate on Sunday moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending a now 40-day shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and snarled air ⁠travel. The end to the shutdown is said to be lifting risk on appetite. (Reuters) The agreement funds operations through Jan. 30, 2026, reverses certain employee firings, secures SNAP benefits through fiscal 2026 and sets up a December vote on Affordable Care Act subsidies. (cryptonews)

Air traffic was snarled this weekend due to the ongoing shutdown. Airlines canceled more than 2,800 U.S. flights and delayed more than 10,200 on Sunday in the worst day for disruptions since the start of a U.S.​ government shutdown. (Reuters)

The Chinese CPI reading for October showed inflation was up 0.2% year on year. The forecast was for zero growth. October’s reading was the strongest since January this year, and the first positive growth in consumer prices since June. (CNBC)

Russian oil major Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield, according to sources, as per Investing.com reporting. Iraq has frozen all payments to Lukoil, both in crude oil and cash, as Baghdad seeks legal avenues to maintain operations at the giant oilfield, according to three of the sources. Lukoil has warned Iraqi officials it may exit West Qurna-2 if the force majeure situation continues, the sources added. Lukoil has a 75% equity stake in Iraq’s giant West Qurna-2 oilfield, which produces more than 400 MBPD of crude oil. (Oil Price)

Commentary seen Friday suggested that the glut in crude oil narrative might be "overstated". A Kpler analyst said :" While data points to an oversupplied market through the first quarter of next year, the analyst says that it isn't comparable to the massive glut seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. Furthermore, although the volume of oil barrels on water has increased, part of this rise is attributed to a greater volume of sanctioned barrels. "I think glut is the wrong word here."  (WSJ)

Reports are of Brent crude oil speculative short positioning having increased; we have not seen an exact figure given. Quantum Commodities reports that :" Money managers were more bearish this week, loading up on short positions in the Brent crude futures complex."

This week will see the release of the monthly oil market reports from the EIA ( Wed. 11/12), OPEC (Wed, 11/12) and the IEA (Thurs. 11/13).

The Baker Hughes oil rig count was unchanged in Friday's report.

Energy Market Technicals

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas --NG is up 5.7 cents at $4.372
NG is up, having risen overnight to a fresh high for the recent rally, boosted by a colder weather forecast and strong LNG export feed gas demand. US gas production remains strong.

LNG terminal feedgas is today estimated .081 BCF/d  lower at 18.02 BCF/d, having risen by 0.445 BCF/d on Sunday to a record 18.10 BCF/d, amid higher activity at Plaquemines. (Market News)

Over the weekend, weather forecasts added some demand, especially in the 5 to 13 day period, as per NatGasWeather. And NatGasWeather adds that the forecast for the first 2 weeks of December shows cooler air in to the Northern US. But, they also add that next weekend will see demand return to a warmer than normal pattern.

Bloomberg data estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 111.04 BCF/d, down from the previous day of 111.79 BCF/d.

Celsius Energy points out that the natural gas portion of power generation has declined dramatically year on year. Of the six major components of the power stack, gas is the only one that has seen a year-over-year decline, down a huge -7.8% vs 2024 over the past week. This is due to gains by coal (+1.5%), solar (+2.8%), & wind (+2.3%), nuclear (+1.0%) among others. Celsius Energy suggests that if the pattern of a declining gas portion of electrical generation were to continue that it may cap upward price potential this winter.

The natural gas rig count rose by 3 units in Friday's Baker Hughes report.

In the NG/LN options market on Friday, the January and February $13/$14/$15 call butterflies traded actively at a price of 0.15 cents. In the December January 1 month Calendar Spread Option (CSO), 3,000 contracts of the -25 cent put was purchased against selling of the -15 cent call for a cost of 0.8 cents. Additionally, in the December January 1 month CSO, 5,000 contracts of the -25 cent/-15 cent call spread traded 4.3 cents. The December January one month futures spread settled -22.4 cents Friday; today, the spread rose as high as -19.0 cents. In the March April 1 month CSO, the $1.00/$2.00 call spread traded 3.9 cents. Open interest in the December put options rose by a total of 16,294 contracts. Specifically, in the December put options, the $4.10/$3.80 put spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio for a cost of 3.6 cents. Similarly, in the January put options, the $4.35/$4.00 put spread traded actively in a 1 by 2 ratio for a cost of 0.6 cents.

Technically, basis the DC chart, the RSI remains over 70--indicating an overbought condition and the stochastic momentum indicator is trying to turn negative from an overbought condition. One colleague terms the current price as seeing "overvaluations widen". Resistance to the upside is seen at 4.471-4.476 and then at the overnight high at 4.509-4.518. Support below lies at 4.328-4.334 and then at 4.268.

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