Daily Energy Market Update May 6, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Markets are reacting strongly to signs of a potential de-escalation in the U.S.–Iran conflict, after reports that both sides are nearing a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell sharply (down 8–9%) on the news, while global equities rallied and bond yields declined, signaling a broad risk-on shift. The move comes despite elevated fuel costs for consumers, with U.S. gas prices recently topping $4.50/gallon amid ongoing supply disruptions. The Strait’s partial shutdown has been a key driver of this year’s surge in energy prices, but optimism around a deal is now easing supply fears and boosting market sentiment.

The U.S. is reportedly expecting an Iranian response on key points within the next 48 hours, with potential alignment setting the stage for more detailed talks. Prices were already under pressure earlier after comments pointing to “great” progress in negotiations.

Energy Market Technicals

Crude (CLM6)
Crude broke below the previous pivot and the top of its multi-week channel at 101.00 in early trade. The selloff also pushed prices through the 20-day moving average at 94.66, signaling a loss of near-term momentum. Price is now trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (91.18) of the move from the March 17 low to last week’s high.

On the downside, the next key support zone sits at 79.00–81.00, which aligns with the March 17 low and the lower Bollinger Band.

On the upside, resistance is seen back at 101.00, marking the top of the prior channel.

Heating Oil (HOM6):
Heating oil traded through the 20-day moving average at 3.7540 and has extended lower to around 3.6130, now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the March 17 low to last week’s high.

If this support gives way, the next downside levels to watch come in at 3.3060 (lower Bollinger Band), followed by 3.1701 (March 17 low).

On the upside, if prices bounce from current levels, initial resistance is seen at 3.7532 (20-day moving average), with further resistance at 3.8731, which marks Monday’s low.

Heating Oil Spread (HON6/HOQ6):
The spread is down 4.57 at 9.21 to start the U.S. session, pulling momentum out of overbought territory, though it remains relatively elevated.

On the downside, support is seen at 7.20 (lower Bollinger Band), followed by 6.33 (March 17 low).

If we see a bounce from current levels, 13.04 (20-day moving average) is the first key resistance to watch. On a larger move higher, 18.84 (upper Bollinger Band) should act as additional resistance.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas (NGM6):
Technically, NG broke below the 20-day moving average and is now approaching support at 2.65 (lower Bollinger Band). A sustained move below this level would bring the April 30 low at 2.59 into focus as the next key support. Notably, April 30 marked a bullish engulfing candle that initiated the recent corrective move higher in natural gas.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC