Daily Energy Market Update May 5, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude Oil (CLM6)
Crude is down $2.20 to start the session, currently trading around 104.24. Price action is forming an inside day and remains contained within the Bollinger Bands.

Momentum remains overbought but has turned lower, suggesting there is room for a corrective move after last week’s breakout above the multi-week range.

On the downside, 101 stands as the key initial pivot level, followed by support at 94.57.
On the upside, resistance is first seen at the upper Bollinger Band near 108.66, with further resistance at last Thursday’s high of 110.93.

Heating Oil (HOM6)
Heating oil is opening the NY session unchanged and is also forming an inside day. Price is sitting near the top of its recent range, with momentum over bought and has also turned lower - suggesting potential for a pullback.

On the upside, resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band near 4.2095, followed by last week’s high at 4.2549.

On the downside, initial support comes in at 3.7543. Beyond that, the next meaningful support level is the lower Bollinger Band at 3.2995, which previously held as support on March 17.

Heating Oil (HON6–HOQ6)
The spread is opening the US session at 14.54 and appears vulnerable to the downside, with momentum overbought and pointing lower.

Price recently bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 12.96, measured from the March 17 low to last week’s high. However, with momentum still elevated and rolling over, the spread remains susceptible to further downside from current levels.

On the downside, the next key support is at 11.40, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Beyond that, additional support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 7.59.
On the upside, resistance is located at 18.83 at the upper Bollinger Band, followed by last week’s high at 19.59.

 Nat Gas (NGM26)

Price is unchanged at 2.86 to start the US session, holding well above the key pivot at 2.78 — the 20-day moving average. Yesterday marked the first close above that level since March 20th.

If we see follow-through from here, 2.90 (upper Bollinger Band) is the first level to watch, followed by the double top at 3.19 from late March.

On the downside, 2.78 should now act as support on any pullback, with 2.66 (lower Bollinger Band) the next level below.

 Nat Gas Spread (NGV6-F7)

The spread is trading at -1.53, now fully in oversold territory and sitting just above confluence support at -1.56 — where the lower Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement converge. Momentum and structure both suggest bounce risk from this area.

On a bounce, key levels to watch to the upside are -1.46 (20-day moving average) and -1.37, where the upper Bollinger Band and the April 17th high both come in.

If price breaks through support at -1.56, the next levels lower are -1.63 (50% Fibonacci) and -1.69 (61.8% Fibonacci).

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC