Daily Energy Market Update May 29, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy Market Update

Oil prices weakened during European trading Thursday as markets reacted to reports of progress in ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations that could eventually ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude traded below $95/b while WTI fell toward the upper-$80s after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a preliminary framework agreement had emerged between Washington and Tehran. Reports suggest the proposed framework could include a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire to allow additional negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, although implementation would still require approval from President Trump.

Despite the bearish reaction in crude prices, uncertainty remains elevated. Even if shipping activity through the Strait begins to improve, normalization in tanker traffic and upstream production could take time, with shipowners potentially hesitant to fully re-enter the region amid fears the ceasefire could break down.

Markets also remain cautious as Iran has yet to confirm reports that a preliminary agreement framework has been reached. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said negotiators were “getting very close,” but added that the two sides were “not there yet,” reinforcing expectations that energy markets will remain highly sensitive to diplomatic developments and shipping activity in the region.

Crude (CLN6)

Crude is opening the U.S. session down 0.84 at 87.71, with momentum now moving into oversold territory. Price is currently trading near the lower Bollinger Band at 86.97 after the last two sessions both closed near that support level.

This morning’s weakness pushed crude to within a few ticks of the May 7th low at 86.76 before stabilizing. With momentum now oversold, the market is increasingly vulnerable to a short-term recovery bounce, although the broader near-term trend remains under pressure while price continues to trade below key moving averages.

Key Levels

Support
86.76 — May 7th low
86.13 — May 6th low

Resistance
94.73 — Gap-fill resistance from the beginning of the week
96.05 — 20-day moving average

Heating Oil (HON6):

Heating Oil is also opening lower this morning and is currently trading inside yesterday’s range, setting up an inside day pattern to start the session.

Momentum indicators are continuing to move into oversold territory, increasing the risk of a short-term recovery bounce. However, price has spent the last four sessions riding the lower Bollinger Band, highlighting the persistent downside pressure currently in the market.

Near-term trade will likely depend on whether support around the recent lows can stabilize the market and trigger short-covering activity.

Key Levels

Support
3.4882 — Lower Bollinger Band
3.4466–3.4500 — Wednesday low / May 7th low support zone

Resistance
3.7257 — Tuesday breakdown level
3.7778 — 20-day moving average

Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)

The crude spread is opening the U.S. session down 0.57 at 6.38 and is currently trading inside yesterday’s range, setting up an inside day to start the session.

Momentum indicators are continuing to move toward oversold territory, suggesting downside momentum may be starting to slow after the recent sharp decline in the spread.

The lower Bollinger Band near 5.77 represents the next key support level. A break below that area would shift focus toward the double-bottom support from May 6th and 7th near 5.16.

Key Levels

Support
5.77 — Lower Bollinger Band
5.16 — May 6th/7th double bottom

Resistance
7.93 — 20-day moving average
8.36 — Gap resistance from the beginning of the week

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas (NGN6)

Natural gas is opening modestly higher this morning, up 0.02, after yesterday’s sharp rally. Price is currently trading above the upper Bollinger Band, although the market has pulled back from the overnight high at 3.35.

Yesterday’s move from below the 20-day moving average to a close above the upper Bollinger Band reflects a moved the stochastic indicator toward overbought territory.

The strong close above the upper Bollinger Band suggests that the market has room to move higher in the near term despite the early-session pullback.

Key Levels

Support
3.19 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from this week’s low to today’s high
3.11 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Resistance
3.46 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the January 30th high to the April 30th low
3.63 — 200-day moving average

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC