Daily Energy Market Update May 26, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy Market Update

Energy markets are trading higher this morning (92.72), recovering from an overnight low of 89.41 (CLN6), after U.S. strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and vessels near the Strait of Hormuz increased geopolitical risk premiums across crude markets.

According to U.S. Central Command, the strikes targeted Iranian vessels allegedly attempting to lay mines in the Strait near Bandar Abbas, home to a major Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval base. Washington described the operation as defensive action intended to protect U.S. forces and commercial shipping lanes.

Shipping activity through the Strait remains severely constrained. Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed only five vessel crossings on May 25, with most linked to Iran. The sharp decline in traffic is reinforcing concerns around potential supply disruption through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Despite the rally, crude remains below the $100/b psychological level, suggesting the market is pricing elevated geopolitical risk rather than immediate supply loss. Volatility is expected to remain elevated as traders monitor military developments, shipping flows, and diplomatic negotiations across the region

Energy Market Technicals

Crude (CLN6)

Crude is starting the U.S. session down 3.80 at 92.86. In overnight trading, prices fell to support at the lower Bollinger Band near 89.41 before rebounding. Momentum indicators have only just moved out of overbought territory, suggesting downside pressure may still remain in the near term.

Support Levels

• 86.20 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

• 80.33 — 50% Fibonacci retracement

• 74.46 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Resistance Levels

• 97.43 — First upside objective / gap-fill level

• 97.18 — 20-day moving average

The short-term tone remains cautious while crude trades below the 20-day moving average.

Heating Oil (HON6):

Heating Oil traded down overnight to support at the lower Bollinger Band near 3.5833 before staging a bounce. Momentum indicators have only recently moved out of overbought territory and continue to point lower, suggesting that any recovery rally may remain limited in the near term.

Support Levels

• 3.2876 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

• 3.0430 — 50% Fibonacci retracement

• 2.7985 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Resistance Levels

• 3.7161 — Gap-fill objective

• 3.8204 — 20-day moving average

The broader short-term bias remains cautious while prices trade beneath the 20-day moving average, although the successful having held the lower Bollinger Band could encourage temporary short-covering strength.

Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)

CLZ6/CLZ7 is down 1.52 to start the U.S. session after trading to an overnight low of 6.86 (-2.05). A close below 8.48 would mark the first meaningful close beneath the 20-day moving average since April 20th. Momentum remains in overbought territory, suggesting that any near-term bounces may be limited while momentum indicators continue to work back toward neutral conditions.

Support Levels

• 6.10–6.20 — Confluence zone with the lower Bollinger Band and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

• 4.57 — 50% Fibonacci retracement

• 3.07 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Resistance Levels

• 8.40–8.50 — Confluence zone with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average

• 8.89 — 50% Fibonacci retracement

• 9.37 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

The market remains technically vulnerable below the 20-day moving average, with momentum conditions favoring consolidation to lower trade.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas (NGM6):

Natural gas bounced overnight from a multi-week low at 2.98. Momentum has moved back into neutral territory, and the rebound pushed price back above the 20-day moving average near 3.06.

With momentum now neutral and price trading near the middle of the 4-week range, directional bias is limited for now.

A close above 3.02 — Friday’s settlement — would create a daily reversal bar, which is typically a bullish signal. However, the setup carries less significance since momentum was not in an extreme oversold condition at the lows.

Key levels to watch:

• 3.02 — Friday’s close / reversal trigger

• 2.92 — lower Bollinger Band

• 3.23 — upper Bollinger Band

Near term, the market looks more range-bound.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC