Daily Energy Market Update May 15, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy Market Update

Energy markets are starting Friday’s session higher as traders continue to react to ongoing uncertainty surrounding global crude flows and the broader supply outlook. Crude oil extended gains overnight after reports indicated little progress was made during the Trump-Xi summit toward resolving disruptions impacting Middle East energy shipments, keeping concerns elevated around the durability of current supply constraints and the potential for a more prolonged energy shock.

Additional headlines overnight showed the UAE plans to significantly expand its export capacity outside the Strait of Hormuz by 2027 through the completion of a new west-east pipeline project. The development highlights the continued focus among major producers on diversifying export routes and reducing reliance on key geopolitical chokepoints as regional tensions remain elevated.

At the same time, OPEC+ continues to signal plans for additional quota increases in the months ahead, although actual production growth remains constrained by ongoing disruptions across the Persian Gulf region. The latest EIA inventory data also showed another draw in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing the tighter near-term supply backdrop despite broader macroeconomic concerns and persistent volatility across global markets.

Across the energy complex, recent momentum conditions remain mixed. Crude oil and refined products are attempting to stabilize following several recent reversal signals near the highs, while natural gas appears to be breaking higher after it pulled back and held key Fibonacci retracement levels the past 3 days.

Energy Market Technicals

Crude (CLM6)

Crude is opening the U.S. session up 2.30, but price action remains within the broader trading range while continuing to hold above the 101.00 pivot. Momentum indicators have turned higher but remain in neutral territory, suggesting the market has yet to regain strong directional conviction.

Resistance levels to watch:
• 109.05 – Upper Bollinger Band
• 110.93 – April 30th high

Support levels:
• 98.54 – 20-day moving average
• 88.01 – Lower Bollinger Band

Heating Oil (HOM6):

Heating oil is also starting the U.S. session higher, although momentum indicators remain near overbought territory after crossing lower and continuing to point down. Current momentum conditions suggest this morning’s bounce could face resistance if the rally extends further.

Resistance levels to watch:
• 4.2283 – Upper Bollinger Band
• 4.2549 – May 12th reversal bar high

Support levels:
• 3.9029 – 20-day moving average
• 3.5776 – Lower Bollinger Band

Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7- Current Level: 8.89)

The CLZ6/CLZ7 spread made a new high for the week at 9.23 as the market continues to trend higher. Momentum indicators are still pointing up but are beginning to approach overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum may begin to slow if the spread extends further from current levels.

Price has continued to hold above the 20-day moving average, with the last close below that level occurring on April 20th, reinforcing the strength of the broader uptrend.

Resistance levels to watch:
• 9.97 – May 4th high
• 10.20 – Upper Bollinger Band

Support levels:
• 7.48 – Rising 20-day moving average
• 5.18 – Double bottom from earlier this month

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas (NGM6):

Natural gas is starting the U.S. session up 0.02, with price trading near the upper Bollinger Band after holding the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support level at 2.81 the past three sessions. The market continues to sit at an important inflection point as traders watch to see whether volatility expansion develops alongside a breakout above the recent trading range.

Looking at the weekly chart, momentum indicators remain deeply oversold but have now crossed higher and continue to point up, suggesting underlying support may continue to develop and that pullbacks could remain relatively shallow.

Additional support levels to watch:
• 2.76 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
• 2.72 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

A close below 2.72 would negate the recent breakout attempt and suggest the market has returned to the prior range.

If natural gas stabilizes and resumes higher from current levels, 3.20 remains the first upside objective.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC