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- Daily Energy Market Update May 14, 2026
May 14, 2026
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Morning Energy Market Update
Energy markets are stabilizing after another volatile overnight session as easing immediate supply concerns pressured crude oil off earlier highs, with Brent briefly trading above $107 before reversing lower and WTI easing back toward the 100 level.
At the same time, OPEC+ delegates indicated the group still plans to continue its scheduled quota increases through the coming months, although actual production growth remains constrained by ongoing regional disruptions and reduced Persian Gulf exports. The latest EIA inventory data also showed another draw in U.S. crude stocks, while distillate inventories increased modestly.
The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, tightening inventories, and elevated volatility in global energy flows continues to support higher price levels across the energy complex, even as several markets begin to show signs of near-term consolidation and fading momentum following the latest advance. Momentum across crude and refined products has generally shifted closer to neutral following recent reversal signals near the highs, while natural gas remains at a key technical inflection point after last week’s attempted breakout above the upper Bollinger Band failed to hold.
Energy Market Technicals
Crude (CLM6)
Crude has moved back below the 101.00 pivot after posting a bearish reversal candle yesterday and closing back inside the prior trading range. The rejection from above 101 suggests recent upside momentum may be fading.
This may bring light selling pressure into today’s session, although momentum indicators remain near neutral and do not yet point to the start of a broader directional move. For now, the market appears to be settling back into equilibrium following the recent volatility.
Support levels to watch:
• 97.86 – 20-day moving average
• 88.66 – Last week’s low
Resistance levels:
• 103.67 – Yesterday’s reversal bar high
• 110.93 – April high and near the upper Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOM6):
Heating oil is starting the session lower and trading near the 20-day moving average at 3.9265. Momentum indicators have crossed lower and continue to point down from slightly elevated levels, suggesting downside pressure may persist in the near term.
Price is currently sitting near the middle of the range that has contained trade over the past month, keeping the market in a broadly neutral posture unless we see a break toward either edge of that range.
If the move lower extends, the next key support levels come in at:
• 3.5716 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 3.5538 – May 6th low
Resistance levels to watch:
• 4.1750 – Tuesday’s high
• 4.2862 – Upper Bollinger Band
Heating Oil Spread (HON6/HOQ6)
The heating oil spread is opening the session lower following a bearish engulfing candle yesterday and a close back below the 20-day moving average. The recent price action suggests a shift in short-term sentiment and raises the potential for additional weakness in the near term.
Momentum indicators have started to roll over, reinforcing the softer tone following the recent rejection from higher levels.
Support levels to watch on the downside:
• 0.0745 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 0.0686 – May 6th spike low
Resistance levels:
• 0.1147 – Yesterday’s reversal bar high
• 0.1344 – Upper Bollinger Band
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGM6):
Natural gas is starting the session slightly lower at 2.82 and remains at an important inflection point. As discussed in last week’s special report, the market continues to lack clear direction following a period of declining and compressed volatility, with traders focused on how price behaves as volatility begins to expand.
It initially appeared that natural gas was breaking higher on May 11th after price pushed above and closed outside the upper Bollinger Band. However, that move was followed by a bearish reversal bar with a higher high and lower close, with price settling back inside the Bollinger Band structure.
The key question now is whether the May 11th move was a false breakout or the start of a larger move higher that is currently undergoing a corrective pullback.
On the downside, price has so far held the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.81, which has now been tested over the past three sessions, including today.
Additional support levels to watch:
• 2.76 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
• 2.72 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
A close below 2.72 would negate the recent breakout attempt and suggest the market has returned to the prior range.
If natural gas stabilizes and resumes higher, 3.20 represents the first upside objective.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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