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- Daily Energy Market Update May 13, 2026
May 13, 2026
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Morning Energy Market Update
Crude has been gradually grinding higher over the past several sessions following the sharp sell-off earlier this month. Energy markets remain focused on the growing disconnect between tightening physical supply conditions and weakening forward demand expectations as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global oil flows.
Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency updated their outlooks this morning, highlighting the increasingly uncertain balance facing the energy market. OPEC lowered its forward oil demand growth expectations, citing the economic and demand impacts stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict, while maintaining expectations for steady non-OPEC+ supply growth led by the United States and other major producers.
The IEA also warned that the recent oil price spike may be far from over, noting that global oil inventories are being depleted rapidly as supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz continue. Despite concerns surrounding slower economic growth and demand destruction from higher prices, the agency still expects the oil market to remain undersupplied through the remainder of the year.
Crude prices remain elevated as markets continue to price in geopolitical risk premium, tightening inventories, and uncertainty surrounding future supply flows through the Middle East. Attention today will remain on developments tied to the Strait of Hormuz, inventory trends, and whether recent volatility begins spilling further into broader commodity and financial markets.
Energy Market Technicals
Crude (CLM6)
Crude is starting the U.S. session close to unchanged after trading in a relatively small overnight range. Price is having an inside day, signaling continued consolidation following the recent geopolitical-driven volatility.
Price continues to hold above the 101 pivot area, while momentum has crossed higher in neutral territory. Because the crossover is occurring away from overbought or oversold conditions, the signal carries less weight from a momentum standpoint.
Resistance levels to watch:
109.59 – Upper Bollinger Band
110.93 – April 30th reversal bar high
Initial support levels:
101.00 – Pivot level
97.03 – 20-day moving average
Beyond that:
88.66 – Last week’s low
84.47 – Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOM6):
Heating Oil is also close to unchanged to start the US session and having an inside day. Today is the first day not making a higher high but still made a higher low for the 5th day in a row. Momentum is more elevated, approaching overbought territory, and has crossed higher
Key resistance levels on the topside:
4.2549 – April 30th high
4.3025 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support levels to watch:
3.8633 – 20-day moving average
3.5538 – Spike low from May 6th
Heating Oil Spread (HON6/HOQ6)
The HON6/HOQ6 spread is opening the U.S. session down 0.50 at 15.99. Price continues to trade near the middle of its three-week range, while momentum has crossed higher in neutral territory.
One notable development is volatility compression, with Bollinger Band width now at its tightest level since early March. The last time volatility compressed to similar levels back in March, the spread eventually expanded sharply higher, rallying from the 8.00 area to the double top near 25.00.
With momentum still hovering around neutral territory, the focus remains on whether price can break out of the current range and sustain a move away from the recent equilibrium area near 15.70.
Resistance levels to watch:
19.01 – Upper Bollinger Band
19.59 – April 30th high
Support levels:
14.25 – 20-day moving average
9.48 – Lower Bollinger Band
9.00 – Double bottom support
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGM6):
Natural gas has pulled back into its recent range after breaking and closing above the Upper Bollinger Band earlier this week. The pullback itself is not unusual, and the next few sessions should help determine whether this is simply a pause before continuation higher or a failed breakout.
In trending markets, pullbacks are typically shallow, often holding near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement before the trend resumes. The 38.2% retracement of the move from the April 30th low to yesterday’s high comes in at 2.81, which was essentially both yesterday’s low and the overnight low.
If the pullback extends further:
2.76 marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement
2.72 marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
From a bullish perspective, holding above 2.72 would be important. There is also a small upward-sloping trendline that currently comes in near 2.75.
A close back above yesterday’s high would reopen the door for a move toward the 3.20 area, which represents both the late-March double top and the next major Fibonacci objective.
If the Fibonacci support levels and trendline fail to hold, the next downside levels to watch are:
2.65 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.59 – YTD low
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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