Daily Energy Market Update May 12, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Morning Energy Market Update

Oil prices are extending gains today as markets react to renewed uncertainty around U.S.–Iran negotiations and the broader Middle East conflict. Reports indicate talks have stalled on ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, keeping supply risk elevated across global energy markets.

Brent crude is trading up around 3.7% at $108.02 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 3.9% at $101.82. The move follows strong gains in the prior session as geopolitical risk premium continues to reprice into crude.

Iran’s chief negotiator said the U.S. must accept Tehran’s latest peace proposal or risk failure, while President Trump warned the ceasefire is on the brink of collapse. Markets continue to focus on the potential for prolonged disruption to tanker flows through Hormuz, a key artery for global crude exports.

Broader risk assets have turned mixed to weaker, with European equities lower and bond yields rising sharply. The UK 30-year yield hit 5.814%, its highest level since 1998, as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns globally.

Traders are also watching upcoming U.S. inventory data from the API later today, ahead of the official EIA release on May 13.

Crude remains firmly bid in early trade with attention on whether geopolitical headlines continue to drive momentum or if positioning begins to stabilize after the recent spike.

Energy Market Technicals

Crude (CLM6)

Crude is opening the U.S. session roughly $3 higher at 101.15. Today marks the fourth straight session with higher lows and the third consecutive session with both higher lows and higher highs.

Price is now trading near the top of the 80–101 trading channel that has been in place since early March. Momentum remains in neutral territory but appears to be attempting to turn higher.

Key resistance levels on the topside:

• 109.11 – Upper Bollinger Band

• 110.93 – April 30th high

Initial support levels:

• 96.28 – 20-day moving average

• 88.66 – May 6th low

  

  
  

Heating Oil (HOM6):

Heating oil continues to track closely with crude oil, with the chart also showing a strong series of bullish candles over the past several sessions. The main difference is that momentum in heating oil is slightly more elevated and has already crossed higher, suggesting somewhat stronger near-term momentum.

Key resistance levels on the topside:

• 4.2549 – April 30th high

• 4.2620 – Upper Bollinger Band

Support levels to watch:

• 3.8315 – 20-day moving average

• 3.5538 – Spike low from May 6th

Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)

The CLZ6/CLZ7 spread is opening the U.S. session 0.93 higher at 8.56. Momentum is beginning to turn higher, with price now trading near the upper end of its recent range structure.

Key resistance levels on the topside:

• 9.97 – May 4th high

• 10.23 – Upper Bollinger Band

Support levels to watch:

• 6.86 – 20-day moving average

• 5.18 – Double bottom from April 6th and 7th

  

   

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas (NGM6):

Natural gas broke and closed above both previous highs yesterday at 2.88 and 2.90. Bollinger Band width — a measure of volatility — has expanded roughly 25% over the past two sessions after sitting at multi-month lows, suggesting the market may finally be ready to move out of the recent compression range.

Following yesterday’s breakout higher, natural gas is trading slightly lower to start the session. Watch closely for the potential of a reversal setup developing, as the market made a new high but is now trading back below yesterday’s close.

If the move higher continues, the next upside objective comes into the 3.20 area, where both the late-March double top and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the January high to the April 30th low converge.

Support levels to watch:

• 2.78 – 20-day moving average

• 2.64 – Lower Bollinger Band

  

  
  

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC