Daily Energy Market Update March 5, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as the Iran was "piles further stress on energy supplies", as Bloomberg's headline reads today. Spot Gasoil futures reached their highest level since October 2022 as the March futures traded as high as $1,130.

Arab states across the Middle East — as well as Israel — reported interceptions of Iranian missiles and drones into Thursday, with Qatar telling residents to remain indoors due to the high level of threat. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said retaliatory attacks will intensify in coming days, according to the (Iranian) Nour news agency.  Turkey came under fire on Wednesday, a first for a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization since the conflict began. Saudi Arabia continued to thwart attacks on Thursday, saying it intercepted multiple missiles and drones overnight. Strikes have mostly been directed at Al Kharj near Riyadh, where the US has a facility, or the east where Saudi Aramco operates its headquarters.  (Bloomberg)

While Iranian military commander Amir Heydari told state TV on Thursday the strait isn’t closed, traders and analysts still expect it will take weeks before flows can resume meaningfully. (Bloomberg)

The Chinese government has told its top refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports. China is the 3rd largest supplier into the region. Japanese refiners asked their government to release oil from strategic petroleum reserves. Earlier this week, a major Indian processor advised customers it would suspend product exports.  (Bloomberg) Two oil refineries in China and India shut their crude units ⁠following the disruption to supplies, as both countries rely on Middle East crude imports. (Reuters) 

In an apparent widening of Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf a tanker in a port near Kuwait was hit with a large explosion Wednesday. An attack on a tanker at anchor in the port would represent significant widening of Iran’s strikes on shipping in the region. The latest attack adds to five others reported in the region in the last 24 hours.  (seatrade-maritime.com) Ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by well over 95%, with major crude carriers and gas tankers avoiding the route. (Bloomberg)

Wednesday's DOE data showed crude supplies rising more than forecast. The increase of 3.20 MMBBL, was more than the estimates for a build of 1.6 to 2.3 MMBBL. Cushing oil supplies rose to their highest amount since August 2024. (Market News) Distillate supplies rose by 0.43 MMBBL, versus estimates for a draw of 2.6 to 2.8 MMBBL. Distillate demand on the week fell by 197 MBPD to 3.698 MMBPD. This figure lagged the prior 2 years demand by 293 and 376 MBPD. Gasoline demand also fell on the week and was well below the demand of the prior 2 years. Gasoline demand fell by 441 MBPD on the week to 8.292 MMBPD. This was 585 and 721 MBPD less than that seen in 2024 and 2025 respectively.

Retail gasoline and diesel prices in the US have risen further today, as per AAA data. Gasoline at the pump is averaging $3.251, which is up 5.3 cents since yesterday. One week ago the price was $2.983. Diesel at the pump is averaging $4.166 today, which is up 12.8 cents from yesterday. One week ago the price was $3.757. 

Energy Market Technicals

WTI, Brent and ULSD momentum basis the DC charts is getting very near overbought. RB and Gasoil basis their DC charts are overbought. ULSD, Gasoil and RB have stepladder up looks from this week's rally. The energies are again today testing the upper bollinger bands basis their DC charts.

Spot WTI sees resistance at 78.40-78.47 and then at 80.69-80.77 from weekly chart data. Support comes in at 74.37-74.41 and then at 71.63-71.65 from April's 60 minute chart data. The DC chart upper bollinger band lies today at 76.97.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is 5.3 cents at $2.970
NG futures are up slightly having again tested $3 overnight. But, NG futures are struggling to rally as mild weather is set to engulf most of the US. Additionally some maintenance and issues at LNG export plants has seen feedgas demand fall in recent days.

Today's EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 125 BCF as per WSJ & Bloomberg surveys. This compares to last year's draw of 106 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 96 BCF.

U.S. feed gas nominations to Gulf Coast terminals have pulled back slightly over the week as disruptions at Cameron LNG and an end of elevated nominations to Golden Pass in Texas cut into overall demand. However, Wood Mackenzie estimated nominations to average 19.2 BCF/d over the next seven days, about 4 BCF/d above the year ago period. Maintenance events and shipping disruptions could see US LNG export shipments drop this week, despite the global LNG market seeing disruptions. (NGI)

The 81-4 day temperature outlook from the NOAA shows much of the Northern half of the US near normal while the Southern half will see above normal, but comfortable temperatures. As NGI says :"Heating demand for gas wavers. Overall gas demand was trending lower on widespread unseasonable warmth."

Demand for more shipping capacity and spot cargoes to Europe is triggering a shock in LNG vessel prices, especially for ships available to load U.S. LNG. The prompt average spot rate for vessels to Europe jumped $116,500 Wednesday to $278,250/day, according to Spark Commodities data. Rates for Asian shipping also rose by almost the same rate to $207,500/day.

Technically NG futures have positive momentum, but the price pattern suggests more of a trading range currently. Resistance comes in at 3.070-3.076 and then at 3.130-3.135. Support is seen at 2.910-2.912 and then at 2.818-2.826.

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