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- Daily Energy Market Update March 4,2026
March 4, 2026
WTI is down 52 cents at $74.04 RB is up 1.89 cents at $2.4763 ULSD is up 0.80 cents at $3.1949
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are mixed at this time--with RB up slightly, while crude oil and the distillates are lower. Conflicting news stories are moving the markets. As Bloomberg wrote today: " Oil pared gains on a report that Iran indirectly reached out to the US in a bid to end the war in the Middle East." But, prices were supported by news of another attack on the large Saudi Ras Tanura refinery. But, the energy markets have been pressured since yesterday after President Trump suggested the U.S. Navy could escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
The New York Times reported that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out to the CIA through another country’s spy agency with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict. (Bloomberg)
A midday headline Tuesday suggesting that the US was considering offering oil tanker insurance to ease Mideast shipments saw energy prices pull back quite a bit. (Reuters) Trump claimed Tuesday that Iran’s “air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone.” (Bloomberg) The President that he had ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf. (Reuters)
A second attempted attack on the large Saudi Ras Tanura refinery happened overnight. A Saudi defense ministry official stated that the attack did not damage the refinery nor has supply been disrupted, but that it was carried out by a drone. (Jerusalem Post/agbi.com) The kingdom also confirmed it’s diverting supplies away from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea as part of a plan to keep operations running. (Reuters) Major oil storage sites in Saudi Arabia are rapidly filling up, according to Kayrros, a satellite imaging intelligence company. Four of the six tanks at the Ras Tanura refinery were full and the Ju’aymah terminal on the country’s east coast is quickly running out of spare capacity, they said.
Iraq is said to have had to cut some of its crude oil production due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure is forcing the country to slow production at its Rumaila field and the West Qurna-2 project, Bloomberg reported. Iraq has cut output by nearly 1.5 MMBPD, about half its production, due to storage limits and the lack of an export route, officials told Reuters. The sources further said the country may have to shut nearly 3 MMBPD of output within days if exports do not resume.
API Forecast Actual
Crude Oil +1.6/+2.3 +5.6
Gasoline -0.8/-1.0 +3.286
Distillate -2.6/-2.8 +0.516
Cushing n/av +1.54
Runs Unch/-0.3% n/av
A Reuters analyst details how China's "buying spree" of crude oil may be slowing. Kpler data suggests Chinese crude oil imports from Nigeria and Angola are set to decline to 1.04 million barrels daily in March, from 1.25 million barrels daily in the final quarter of last year. African oil imports are also set for another decline in April, to 978 MBPD, the data shows. Freight rates for VLCC's from the Mideast to China have tripled since the beginning of 2026. The Reuters analyst adds that China, while not as sensitive to international oil prices as its neighbor India, is still sensitive to these prices. And it has built up a nice inventory of crude. A recent report said that Chinese refiners and traders have been buying record amounts of Russian crude, with the average daily for February estimated at close to 2.1 MMBPD, according to Kpler. That would be up from 1.7 MMBPD in January and a result of Indian refiners’ pullback under U.S. pressure to stop buying Russian crude. Because of that pullback, Russian oil is fetching even deeper discounts than before, which is very welcome news for Chinese buyers. But it is not only Russian crude that is getting discounted. Reuters’s Clyde Russell this week reported, citing traders, that Angolan and Nigerian sellers were also cutting their prices, with local crudes being sold at $5 discounts to Dated Brent, up from $3 earlier in February. According to Russell, this is an early sign that Chinese oil imports may weaken from April onwards, not least because of higher freight rates, which are hitting demand for oil from Western Africa—and for Middle Eastern oil.
The volume of WTI futures traded on the CME Tuesday was exceptionally heavy at 3,396,006 contracts. Can this suggest that an interim top was put in place for the WTI contract?
Open interest in RB & ULSD futures fell by 13,698 and 15,843 contracts respectively Tuesday. We suspect that this was overall more so shortcovering happening. In ULSD the decreases were seen in the April through July strip. In RB, the decreases were seen in the April, June and September through November strip.
The retail prices for gasoline and diesel at the pump in the US rose quite a bit again today. Gasoline is up 8.9 cents from Tuesday, priced at $3.198. The diesel price today of $4.038 is up 14.7 cents from Tuesday.
Energy Market Technicals
Crude oil is having an inside trading day today versus yesterday's price range. The products made fresh highs overnight for the recent rally on the back of the news of the Saudi refinery attack. RB DC chart based momentum is overbought.
WTI spot futures have support at 71.63-71.70 and then at 70.09-70.16. Resistance lies at 75.69-75.75 and then at 77.23-77.32. The DC chart's upper bollinger band lies at 73.72.
RB spot futures see support at 2.4327-2.4343 and then at 2.3933-2.3949. Resistance comes in at 2.5025-2.5036 and then at 2.5328, which is yesterday's high. The DC chart upper bollinger band lies at 2.4375.
ULSD spot futures support is seen at 3.1442-3.1457 and then at today's low at 3.1141-3.1160. Resistance comes in at 3.2280-3.2292 and then at 3.2690-3.2707. The DC chart upper bollinger band lies at 3.1905.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 8.9 cents at $2.965
NG futures are lower today as the market has seen the TTF marker retreat in the face of the story of Iran reaching out to possibly end the conflict. The TTF spot futures price is down almost 14% today. NOAA weather forecasts showing above normal temperatures focused in the Eastern and Southern portions of the US is also weighing on NG prices.
TTF European futures have retreated today after the very sharp rise seen the past 2 days. Prices rose by almost 70% in the past 2 trading sessions. Today's pullback is said to stem from a report from the NY Times that Iranian operatives have made an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict with the U.S. and Israel. (Investing.com)
Henry Hub (HH) next day cash traded $2.990 in the late morning Tuesday versus April NG spot futures trading $3.134. Thus the cash fell to a discount of near 14.5 cents to the spot futures, versus Monday when the HH cash held a small 3 cent premium and Friday when the premium was 13 to 17 cents. The futures flipping to a premium is clearly a reflection of the worries over global LNG supply going forward ---given primarily the Qatari force majeure announcement heard Monday and the resultant large jump in TTF and JKM futures prices --with the US seen as a possible alternate source for LNG.
Comments seen Tuesday regarding NG futures values indicated some skepticism about further upside for futures prices. “We are in a geopolitical conflict, which can move prices for a while. Eventually, however, the true fundamentals draw the price charts. The front end of the NG curve may be living on borrowed time , the analyst added. " Another analyst added :"While a colder mid-to-late March and Iran war risks may align with supportive technicals to drive short-term upside, the medium-term fundamental picture remains weak."
An LNG tanker initially headed for Europe has reversed course and is now sailing toward Asia as global natural gas prices surge, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. The vessel is the first known example of a tanker diverting from Europe to Asia during the current price spike, the firm said. (turkiyetoday.com) No LNG-laden carrier has crossed the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, according to energy markets tracker Vortexa, and only a few empty vessels are available to load supplies in Qatar and the UAE. (agbi.com) Qatar LNG normally sees more than 80% of its shipments going to Asia.
In LN/NG options trading on the CME Tuesday, the October $3.00/$2.25 put spread traded in a 1x2 ratio at a cost of 11.2 cents. The October $3.00 puts went 21.0 cents in a separate trade with 0.23 delta futures buys at $3.69. The September $3.00/$2.50 put spread traded in a 1x2 ratio costing 5.1 cents. These September and October put options saw their open interest rise. The October January CSO -$0.75 call traded 2.7 and 2.8 cents 750 contracts each. These trades closed out positions. The October January futures spread settled Tuesday at - $1.368.
TTF options traded on the CME Tuesday. Notably the April Euro 40 put traded at a cost of 4.125 Euro with 0.25 delta April futures buys at Euro 55.25. April TTF futures settled Tuesday at Euro 54.290. Today, the spot April TTF futures are trading near Euro 47. Also on Tuesday, the October, November and December Euro 30 puts traded Euro 2.55 with 0.14 futures bought in the strip at Euro 49.00. The October through December TTF strip settled Tuesday at Euro 45.83.
Natural gas futures open interest on the CME rose by 18,959 contracts in Tuesday's activity. We see this as more new shorts than longs. The contract months that saw increases were April, May, June, October, and December 2026 through February 2027.
Technically, momentum is positive basis the DC chart for NG futures, but the price pattern of the past few sessions suggest more so that a trading range has been established. Support for the spot NG futures is seen at the overnight low at 2.910-2.912 and then at 2.818-2.826. Resistance comes in at 3.070-3.076, which are the highs from Monday and today. Above that resistance comes in at 3.130-3.135.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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