Daily Energy Market Update March 30,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as tension mounts in the Mideast with the increased deployment of US service men, Houthi militants joining the conflict launching missiles at Israel and a threat from President Trump about seizing Iranian oil. The rise in energy prices comes even as more ships are said to be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices retreated this morning, setting fresh lows for the session for May RB and WTI as President Trump tweeted  that great progress has been made" in talks with Iran.

Donald Trump says the US is in "serious discussions" with a new Iranian regime, which the president says could "end our military operations in Iran".  But, he repeated his warning to Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz or risk U.S attacks on its oil wells and power plants. His comments came even as earlier today, a spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry said the points conveyed regarding US demands from Iran to end the war have been “excessive and unreasonable”. (BBC.com/Reuters)

The Houthis fired missiles at Israel over the weekend, and said they would continue operations until attacks on Iran and its proxy militant groups cease. There is some fear that the Houthis may restrict flows of oil through the Bab al-Mandab Strait that leads into the Red Sea. Oil executives and analysts warn that the Strait of Hormuz needs to be reopened by mid-April or oil-supply disruptions will get significantly worse. (CNBC)  Saudi Arabia has increased its use of the Red Sea waterway in recent weeks. Yanbu loadings are at a record level of around 3.4 MMBPD month-to-date in March, according to Kpler data. Aramco can pump up to 7 MMBPD to Yanbu through the pipeline, around 5 MMBPD of which ​could be available for export, with the rest supplying local refineries, the company said on March 10. Crude exports via Yanbu averaged 770 MBPD in January and February. (Reuters)

In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, President Trump said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island. (Bloomberg) The U.S. said that it had deployed 3,500 troops in the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli warship. (investing.com) This brings the total number of US troops in the Mideast to over 50,000, as per NY Times reporting.

Despite the broader standstill, there has been a recent marginal increase in Iran-linked ships — mostly bulk carriers and LPG vessels — attempting to pass through. Tehran has moved to formalize its control of the Strait of Hormuz, barring most vessels, while allowing a handful to pass, including from Pakistan, Thailand and Malaysia. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister separately said on X that Tehran agreed to let 20 more of its ships through the strait. (Bloomberg)

West African crude flows are slowing as sellers hold cargoes amid the Strait of Hormuz closure, tightening global oil markets and reshaping trade flows. Sellers are reserving barrels for their own refineries unless particularly high bids emerge, four crude traders told Reuters.  Yet, around 20 West African crude cargoes on the April loading schedule are available to buy, two traders said this week. One of the traders said, adding that the owners of as many as 15 of the cargoes can refine them if no strong bid emerges. Prices for West African cargoes have soared as refiners snap up available replacement barrels for disrupted Middle East supply. Nigerian Bonny Light crude was valued at a $7.50-per-barrel premium to the dated Brent benchmark last week, according to LSEG data, the highest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. West Africa's top export markets in 2025 were China and India, according to data from Kpler, accounting for nearly 40% of exports.

The Baker Hughes oil rig count fell by 5 units in Friday's report. Baker Hughes said this week’s decline puts the total oil and gas rig count down 8.3% below this time last year.

CFTC data seen Friday shows money managers reduced some net length in RB & ULSD on the CME, while adding a very small amount of net length in WTI. Combined ICE/CME net length in WTI futures/options rose by 2,776 contracts. RB net length fell by 6,208 contracts, ULSD by 4,781 contracts. Market News commentary said that the RB net length position was the lowest seen in 7 weeks. ING writes that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 21,579 lots to 407,125 lots as of last Tuesday, driven largely by a reduction in gross longs.

Since the onset of the conflict on 28 February, jet fuel prices have more than doubled. Jet fuel prices are now over $100 more than crude oil. Platts had the European jet price as of March 20 at $214.67, versus Brent priced at the time at $110.78. As reported by the Financial Times, airlines are reportedly delaying taking out new jet fuel hedge deals in the hope that prices will fall in the coming months. According to the Financial Times, European airlines have, on average, hedged around 80% of their fuel requirements for 2026. Ryanair noted that long-term jet fuel prices for summer 2027 are still trading at around $75 to $80 per barrel.

Today's diesel average price at the pump, as per AAA data, has risen to $5.416, which is $1.650 higher than seen on February 27. The average gasoline price at the pump has also risen to a new high since the Iran conflict began. Today's average US gasoline price is $3.990, which is up $1.008 since February 27.

Energy Market Technicals

Today's highs for the energies basis the May daily charts have risen to their best value other than the spike highs seen one week ago for the products and on March 9th for the WTI. Momentum has turned positive for the energies on the May daily charts.

WTI spot futures have resistance at the overnight high at 103.21-103.38 and then at 105.79. Support lies at the overnight low at 99.43-99.44 and then at 96.86-96.96.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 11.9 cents at $2.906
NG started the Sunday night session printing up 3.2 cents at 3.057, which is the high for the session---in line with the higher energy complex opening--but within 2 minutes of the opening, the NG price fell to the session low of 2.851, as the weak shoulder season weather pattern overall in the US is outweighing the strong LNG feedgas demand and the global LNG supply disruptions from the Mideast and Australia.

Storm damage to Chevron Corp.’s Wheatstone gas plant is hampering efforts to restart operations and the facility won’t be back online fully for “a number of weeks,” the company said Sunday. The facility accounted for 2.4% of global LNG trade in February, shipping 11 cargoes — of which 10 went to Japan and one to Thailand, according to advisory EnergyQuest. Wheatstone was one of three LNG plants in Western Australia that had their output curbed by Tropical Cyclone Narelle late last week. Woodside Energy Group Ltd. said Sunday it’s working to resume normal operations at its North West Shelf facility, while Chevron said its Gorgon site was operating at “full rates” after an outage at one of its three production units. (Bloomberg)

Celsius Energy writes: LNG feedgas demand reached 19.48 BCF/d Saturday, up +3.2 BCF/d vs 2025 and within 0.01 BCF/d of the all-time high set on January 12. Expect new highs soon and expect the year-over-year gain--which has been quite stable--to widen in the weeks & months ahead as some seasonal maintenance is delayed due to the Middle East crisis.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count fell by 4 units in Friday's report, falling to their lowest level since the week of January 30. The Permian and Marcellus basins saw reductions of 2 units each. The Marcellus Basin is overwhelmingly focused on natural gas production, not crude oil. (Reuters)

CFTC data seen Friday showed money managers added to their net short position in NG futures/options on the CME in the week ended Tuesday March 24. The net short position rose by 9,930 contracts to a total of 54,529 contracts.

April NG futures expired Friday with a firm tone, with the front spread rising to its best premium value for the contract. The high for April over May was 8.2 cents. The April settlement was 7.1 cents over May. April's firm tone was said to be due to some short covering and weather forecasts that added some heating demand. (Barchart) Other reasons cited were the global LNG disruptions and the strong EIA storage data seen Thursday. 

Technically momentum is positive for the NG May futures basis the DC and daily charts. Support for the May futures lies at the recent low at 2.807. Resistance comes in at the double top from Friday/today at 3.060/3.057.

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