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- Daily Energy Market Update March 3, 2026
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March 3, 2026
WTI is up $6.61 at $77.84 RB is up 14.60 cents at $2.5166 ULSD is up 45.63 cents at $2.3567
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are up strongly today as the conflict widens in the Mideast, heightening supply risks. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz has underpinned prices, but news wire reports tout the greater risk to energy infrastructure in the Mideast region as further supporting prices.
After the close of energy trading Monday news was seen on Reuters that " the Revolutionary guards commander says Strait of Hormuz closed, Iran to set on fire any ship trying to pass." Tankers and container ships are avoiding the waterway after insurers cancelled coverage for vessels and global oil and gas shipping rates soared. (Reuters) United Arab Emirates authorities are dealing with a serious fire at Fujairah port, state media said on Tuesday. Iraq's Kirkuk crude oil loadings at Turkey's Ceyhan port stopped on Tuesday, a shipping source told Reuters. The U.S. embassy in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh was hit by Iranian drones, along with Amazon data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. (investing.com) A fuel tank at Oman’s Duqm commercial port was hit in a drone attack. (Al Jazeera) Iran launched a drone attack on a US base in Kuwait on Monday. (Market News) Israel struck targets in Tehran and Beirut early Tuesday, as Iran continued to fire at Israel and other targets in Gulf states, The Wall Street Journal reported. Senior US officials have indicated that a significant expansion of strikes targeting Iranian missile and naval assets is prepared for the next 24 hours. (Market News)
Fears are mounting over direct damage to Iran's production infrastructure, and the potential for prolonged retaliatory strikes. (Market News) President Trump said on Monday: "we projected four to five weeks but have capability to go far longer." Trump's comment regarding a possible timeline to the Iran conflict was :" whatever it takes." CNN's Jake Tapper quoted President Trump as saying: "we haven't even started hitting them hard, the big waves haven't even happened. The big one is coming soon". Iran’s capabilities to disrupt flows through the Strait "appear limited, and may degrade even further over time," analysts at Wolfe Research said. Wolfe research cites a reduced capability by Iran to effectively close the Strait. "Militarily closing the Strait at this point would need to be done through anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, which the U.S. is actively working to neutralize," the analysts said. (investing.com)
The IEA says that it is ready to "stabilize the oil market." Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting a document prepared by the agency that outlines its commitment to addressing potential disruptions in oil supply. The IEA is currently holding a meeting. Bloomberg reports that the IEA's members have 1 billion barrels of oil in reserve. Bloomberg adds , though, that a document seen from the IEA states that it believes the oil market is ‘adequately’ supplied. The EIA estimated in June 2025 that there is around 2.6 MMBPD of spare capacity from the UAE and Saudi pipelines that could bypass the Strait of Hormuz, mostly by being loaded on the opposite coast along the Red Sea from the Persian Gulf, where the Strait of Hormuz lies.
From a demand perspective, there is an expectation that Asian refiners may cut crude processing rates by 20%-30% if disruption continues. Chinese refiner ZPC has already brought forward maintenance at a 200 MBPD CDU unit as a result of tightening crude supply, a trend that may continue. (Market News)
Supertanker costs in the Middle East have hit all-time highs, according to shipping data and industry sources on Tuesday, as per Reuters reporting. The cost of a VLCC to ship crude from the Mideast to China rose to $423,736 / day.
Russia's Black Sea Novorossiysk oil loadings were suspended Monday due to a drone attack. (Reuters)
WTI futures volume traded on the CME in Monday's session was heavy.
Citigroup see oil trading in the $80-90/bbl range over at least the coming week while Morgan Stanley raised its Q2 Brent forecast to $80/bbl, Bloomberg said. Morgan Stanley's prior forecast was for Brent to reach $62.50 in Q2. A 3–4 week squeeze on Strait of Hormuz traffic could force gulf cooperation council output shut-ins and push Brent above $100/bbl, according to JPMorgan cited by Reuters. An analyst at the Macquarie Group said that the world could handle the Strait of Hormuz being shut in for one or two weeks, but the impact on oil price would escalate rapidly after a third week and definitely after a fourth. The US is not currently discussing releasing oil from the SPR, as per Reuters.
The retail fuel prices at the pump in the U.S. have risen quite a bit today from yesterday in step with the wholesale price increases seen in the futures markets. Gasoline at the pump has risen by 11.2 cents today to $3.109. Diesel prices have risen by 12.1 cents to $3.891. (AAA)
According to the Korea International Trade Association, Korea imports 70.7% of its crude oil and 20.4% of its LNG from the Middle East. Most of those volumes must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Korean government said, "Stockpiles of crude oil and petroleum products are sufficient for 207 days (about 6 months and 3 weeks)." (biz.chosun.com)
As to be expected given the price ranges and the underlying uncertainty over the events unfolding globally, volumes traded on the CME on Monday were heavy. WTI volume was almost 3 million contracts; usually daily volume is around 800-900,000 contracts , although last week with increased tension, volumes rose to near 1.4 million contracts traded. RB volume Monday was near 466,000 contracts; last week volumes were in the range of 200-220,000 contracts. ULSD/HO volume traded Monday was near 668,000 contracts; last week, the CME saw volumes in the range of 265-280,000 contracts.
Energy Market Technicals
The crude oils and the HO spot futures are not yet overbought, but the RB and Gasoil contracts are. The energies are all trading well above their DC charts' upper bollinger bands.
WTI spot futures have resistance at $78.40-78.47 and then at 80.69-80.77 from weekly chart data. Support comes in at 73.38-73.48 and then at 70.80-70.88 from 60 minute April chart data.
RB spot futures see support at 2.4124-2.4146 from the 60 minute April chart. The low overnight is 2.3566. Resistance comes in at the high seen today at $2.5328-2.5331 and then at 2.5800-2.5830.
ULSD support lies at 3.2384 and then at 3.1974 via April 60 minute chart data. The overnight low is 2.9091. Resistance is seen at 3.4066 and then at 3.4781 via weekly chart data.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas --NG is up 20.9 cents at $3.169
NG is up in step with other energies as global natural gas prices have risen dramatically on the back of worries over LNG supply. A slight rise in US weather demand is also helpful.
TTF European prices are up another 28% today after rising by 39% Monday. Currently, TTF spot futures are trading Euro 57/Mwh (=$19.49 /MMBtu). The high today is Euro 65.790/Mwh (=$22.35/MMBtu) Benchmark Asian LNG prices rose as much as nearly 40% on Monday, as per Reuters reporting. The CME's JKM 2nd month May futures rose by 52.57%/$5.68 as per Monday's settlement of $16.485 /MMBtu. In a scenario where flows halt for one month, it is likely that the TTF and JKM benchmark gas prices could climb by 130% to approach 74 euros per megawatt hour ($25/mmBtu), Goldman said. Gulf producers have storage and tanker capacity to cover 25 days of stranded supply, JPMorgan estimates. (Reuters)
India has begun rationing natural gas while countries around Asia looked to the spot market to replace supplies, activated emergency plans and prepared to step up production, as the conflict in the Middle East curtailed shipping and halted Qatari output. LNG buyers in Asia account for more than 80% of shipments from Qatar, the world's No. 2 producer after the U.S., according to data from analytics firm Kpler. (Reuters)
The cumulative Lower 48 US States 11-14 day HDD count rose to 61.4 HDD in the latest run, compared to 49.44 HDD in the previous run. (Market News) NatGasWeather shows the European model having added a total of 13.5 HDD in the latest 2 weather runs.
Daily freight rates for LNG tankers jumped more than 40% on Monday after Qatar halted production. Atlantic rates rose to $61,500 per day on Monday, up 43%, or $18,750, from Friday, according to Spark Commodities. Pacific rates rose to $41,000 per day, up 45%, or $12,750, from Friday. The principal analyst for global LNG at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said spot daily LNG shipping rates could rise above $100,000 this week on tight supply. (Reuters)
US Lower 48 states dry gas production is estimated 0.858 BCF/d lower at 113.6 BCF/d today compared to a 30-day average of 113.33 BCF/d in Feb, BNEF data shows.
NG futures eased back Monday from the early morning high as weather forecasts showed lower demand, thus offsetting the global increase in LNG prices due to the ongoing tension/disruptions in the Mideast. On Monday weather forecasts showed US heating demand for the week ending Mar. 7 was forecast to be 53 heating degree days (HDD) below the long-term normal, according to NOAA.
The Henry Hub next day cash was still valued near $3.00 Monday, thus capping strength in NG futures. The next day cash futures differential was seen at about a 3 cent premium, versus the +13/+17 cent differential seen Friday.
This week's EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 120 to 129 BCF. This compares to last year's draw of 106 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 96 BCF. NGI analysis states that :"If average withdrawals from the previous last five years persist through the end of March, then Lower 48 gas in storage would exit winter at 1,787 BCF. That would be in line with both the 1,799 BCF that remained in storage after the winter of 2024/25 and the median 1,778 BCF end of winter figure since 2010." The EIA in February's STEO forecast EOS inventories at 1.866 TCF. The Desk's latest survey estimates EOS March 2026 natural gas inventories at 1.841 TCF.
Technically NG futures have positive momentum. Upside resistance is seen at 3.202-3.206. There is a gap on the April daily chart to fill from 3.190 to 3.202. Further resistance above is seen at 3.277-3.281. Support is likely at 2.998-3.000, which is above the overnight low of 2.973. Below that support comes in at 2.910-2.912.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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