Daily Energy Market Update March 26,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as hopes of an imminent peace deal between Iran and the U.S. have faded. The geopolitical risk premium remains elevated.

President Trump today tweeted : "They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won't be pretty!".  US-Iran indirect talks are taking place through messages being relayed by Pakistan, according to a post on X by the Pakistani deputy Foreign Minister. A Mideast Axios news reporter reported earlier that Iran had rejected the initial US list of demands but did not rule out negotiations altogether, citing a source involved in the negotiation efforts. Iran ​is reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war, but has no intention of holding ⁠talks to end the conflict, Iran's foreign minister said on Wednesday. President Trump will hit Iran harder if ​Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. (Reuters) Iran has also threatened to control or close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passageway that controls sea traffic toward the Suez Canal. That passageway is the one through which Saudi Arabian crude exports from the Western port of Yanbu would be shipped. The waterway handles around 12% of global seaborne oil. (WSJ)
 
The DOE stats seen Wednesday showed a build in crude supplies of 6.926 MMBBL. This was the 5th consecutive increase. That put crude stocks at their highest since June of 2024 in EIA data. (Market News)  The stock build saw supplies flipping from a deficit to a surplus versus the 5 year average for the first time in over a year, as per Celsius Energy analysis. The crude build was due mostly to an increase in net crude imports of 846 MBPD, equal to 5.922 MMBBL. Crude oil exports fell to their lowest level since November 2025. (ING) Crude inputs to refineries rose by 366 MBPD to 16.598 MMBPD, which is the highest level seen since the stats of Jan. 22. Market News reports that the run rate is the highest seasonally since 2018. The rise to 92.9% capacity utilization came largely due to a rise in Gulf Coast processing, which was at the highest level on record in data that go back 29 years. (Market News) Gasoline supplies fell by 2.593, which was better than forecast. Gasoline demand rose by 196 MBPD to 8.924 MMBPD, beating the prior 2 years by 281 and 209 MBPD. Distillate demand fell on the week by 831 MBPD to 3.568 MMBPD, lagging the prior 2 years demand by 68 and 460 MBPD. Cushing inventories surged by 3.4 MMBBL to 30.9 MMBBL, the biggest weekly gain since January 2023. (ING)

Adding to supply concerns, at least 40% of Russia's ​oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks and the seizure ​of tankers, according ⁠to Reuters calculations based on market data. The Primorsk Baltic export terminal is capable of exporting 1 MMBPD of crude oil.

Valero Port Arthur began preparing for a restart of its refinery this week after shutting due to a fire on Mar. 23, Reuters sources said. The refinery's diesel hydrotreater, which exploded on Monday night, will remain idle for repairs while other units are restarted around it. The Texas refinery has a capacity of 380 MBPD.

The Dallas Fed quarterly Energy survey of about 200 oil and gas firms was released Wednesday. On average, respondents expect a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $74 per barrel at year-end 2026. When asked about longer-term expectations, respondents on average said they expect a WTI oil price of $73 per barrel two years from now and $79 per barrel five years from now. (dallasfed.org)

The UK Prime Minister said on Thursday he had authorized the military to board and detain Russian ships in British waters to disrupt a network of vessels that his government says enables Moscow to export oil despite Western sanctions. A British official said at least a dozen Russian sanctioned vessels had been passing through the English Channel each month, on average, over the last year. The British authorization to board Russian ships may mean these vessels will avoid the Channel, forcing them to take longer, more expensive routes. Britain has placed sanctions on 544 Russian shadow fleet vessels. About three-quarters of Russia’s crude oil is transported by these ships, Britain estimates.  (Reuters)

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated on Thursday that the country could reinstate a ban on gasoline exports if circumstances require such a measure. In February 2026, after the (prior) ban on petroleum product exports had been lifted a month early, the IEA calculated that Russia exported 90 MBPD of gasoline. Novak also reported that Russia’s flagship Urals crude oil has been trading at levels equal to, or higher than, Brent crude prices. Platts assessed Urals DAP West Coast India versus Forward Dated Brent at a record high premium of $7.20/b on March 23. Urals traditionally traded at a $1-3/barrel discount to Brent crude oil due to its higher sulfur content and lower API gravity.  (Investing.com/Interfax/OilPriceapi.com)

The Japanese ​Prime Minister has asked the ​IEA chief ⁠for an additional coordinated release of oil stockpiles on Wednesday, as Tokyo seeks to hedge against a prolonged conflict. (Reuters)

As expected, the US EPA has relaxed fuel regulations to allow the sale of E15 gasoline during the summer, thus dropping Clean Air Act stipulations. (WSJ) Today, the gasoline price at the pump has fallen for the first time since the beginning of the Iran conflict. The AAA says the average gasoline price at the pump is $3.981, down 0.2 cents from yesterday. Yet, the price remains 99.9 cents higher than that seen February 27. The diesel price at the pump though has risen further. Today's price is up 0.9 cents from yesterday at $5.375. This is up $1.618 from February 27.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum remains negative for the energies, but the price action of the past few days suggests support has been found.

Spot WTI futures see support at the $90 area and then at the low from yesterday at 86.34-86.46. Resistance comes in at 97.04-97.07 and then at 99.29-99.33.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas-- May NG is up 1.7 cents at $2.929
NG futures are up slightly as they are being buffeted by the geopolitical premium of the Iran conflict, together with strong LNG feedgas demand and an "anticipated strong powerburn" versus the weak weather demand of the shoulder season.

Weather forecasts are showing temperatures remaining warmer than normal through April 8, which would reduce heating demand in the coming weeks. (Tradingview.com) Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) remain at or below the 5-year average. (Celsius Energy)

The April LN NG options expire today with the $3.00 strike on the CME showing open interest of near 62,700 contracts. The individual options show  the $ 2.90 call with 6,297 contracts. the $3.00 call 18,853 contracts  $3.25 call 16,736 contracts   $2.75 put 33,413 contracts  $2.80 put 9,675 contracts  $2.90 put 9,670 contracts  $3.00 put 43,856 contracts  $3.25 put 14,650 contracts. Given the large open interest at the $3.00 strike, will the futures be drawn to that price at settlement today?

The EIA gas storage data due out today is seen as bullish as a draw of 51 BCF is expected, as per the WSJ survey. This compares favorably to last year's build of 33 BCF and the 5 year average draw for the period of 21 BCF. NGI commentary re this week's EIA data reads as follows: " A 43 BCF withdrawal would put Lower 48 natural gas in storage on pace to exit March at 1,846 BCF, 68 BCF higher than the median since 2010. " The EIA in this month's STEO forecasted EOS March 2026 storage to be 1.842 TCF. NGI suggests that the draw is due to increased HDD's during the period.  Heating degree days (HDD) across the continental U.S. states increased by 49 HDDs to 132 HDDs, thus pushing the NG average daily power burn up 6% on the week.

TTF European futures have rebounded the past 24 hours on the back of the raised geopolitical premium. The gap created yesterday early to 51.760 has been filled. Today's spot TTF price is Euro 54.745. Storage across the European Union is running low ahead of the stockpiling season, with inventories in the Netherlands at just 6% capacity and Germany around 22%. “Refilling them prior to the next heating season could fuel competition for cargo if these supply disruptions persist,” analysts at ANZ say. (WSJ)

The Dallas Fed quarterly survey of 200 oil and gas firms has a forecast for the year end Henry Hub gas price of $3.60. Furthermore, when asked about longer-term expectations, respondents on average said they expect a Henry Hub gas price of $4.03 per MMBtu two years from now and $4.42 per MMBtu five years from now. (dallasfed.org)

Analysis seen has detailed the upcoming spring maintenance schedule for some of the LNG export plants in the US.  Sabine Pass maintenance, which begins as early as April, can bring as much as 1.5 BCF/d of feedgas offline in June, when maintenance is at its peak. The Sabine maintenance is seen lasting 20 days. Corpus Christi maintenance is less consistent of a trend, but can see upwards of 0.2 BCF/d less feedgas through the summer.  One analyst has this Corpus Christi maintenance lasting 3 days starting April 22.  The analyst also says that the 0.8 BCF/d Cameron MD normally goes into maintenance for 3 weeks starting around May 3.  Yet, much has been written in the past few days of some of this spring maintenance being delayed due to summer demand that is foreseen. As an example, delayed Cheniere maintenance could add 160 BCF of Summer Demand, as per Market News analysis. Sabine and Cameron delayed maintenance in 2022 due to high netbacks.

Notable in Wednesday's NG futures trading activity on the CME is the very low volume. Total volume in NG futures was 294, 055 contracts. Several comments regarding Wednesday's NG trading used the word "rangebound". One analyst says: Natural gas prices remain in a listless, rudderless environment.

Technically the May NG futures continue to have negative momentum. Support lies at 2.844-2.849 and then at 2.807. Resistance comes in at 2.951-2.956 and then at 2.981-2.982.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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