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- Daily Energy Market Update March 25,2026
March 25, 2026
WTI is down $4.50 at $87.85 May RB is down 17.50 cents at $2.9196 May ULSD is down 32.59 cents at $3.6874
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are down quite a bit as Tuesday after the close, an Israeli media report was seen that the US is seeking a one-month ceasefire with Iran. (Bloomberg) But, Iran has said this morning that they do not accept a ceasefire with the US and they say that US talks are illogical, as per a news item from the Iranian FARS news wire. (Bloomberg) Crude futures rallied over $1.50 on the FARS news.
President Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was making progress in negotiating an end to the war, while a source confirmed that Washington had sent Iran the 15-point proposal. (Reuters) A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Pakistan had handed over a US proposal --with a possible venue for talks being discussed.
But, Agence France Presse is reporting that the Iranian navy had fired missiles at a US aircraft carrier. And, Iran’s armed forces added to a stream of messaging that ruled out ceasefire talks, according to state-run IRIB News. They added that they wouldn’t allow oil prices to return to their previous levels until all threats against the country were removed. (Bloomberg) And meantime, The US is planning to deploy about 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region, the Wall Street Journal reported, as the White House weighs options to ease Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil exports from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Yanbu port rose to nearly 4 MMBPD last week, a sharp increase from before the war broke out, shipping data showed. Average loadings at Yanbu rose to 2.6 MMBPD so far in March, up from 1.4 MMBPD in February and 1.3 MMBPD in January, LSEG shipping data showed. Yet, Saudi Aramco has cut crude supply to Asian buyers for a second month in April. The producer is supplying only Arab Light crude exported from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to term customers in April. Saudi Arabia has exported 4.355 MMBPD so far in March, data from analytics firm Kpler showed, down from 7.108 MMBPD in February. (Reuters)
A trickle of ships have been making their way out in recent days, though not all of them carrying oil. (Bloomberg)
Russia's Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, major export terminals, suspended crude oil and oil products loadings on Wednesday after Ukrainian drone attacks sparked a blaze which could be seen from Finland, two sources told Reuters. Primorsk is able to export more than 1 MMBPD of crude oil. It is a major outlet for Russia's flagship Urals crude and high-quality diesel. (Reuters)
At the CERA week meetings, Kuwait Petroleum Corp.'s CEO said that Gulf producers will need as many as four months to resume full output. Shell's CEO estimated that the physical disruption will spread to Europe from Asia next month. (Bloomberg)
Chevron Corp. warned that California is careening toward an energy crisis, and that the company may quit refining in the state unless officials rolled back regulations. The state is particularly exposed as it imports about 20% of refined fuels from Asia and diesel prices are at a record above $7 a gallon. (Bloomberg)
In Asia, in Australia, hundreds of service stations have reported fuel shortfalls. At least 600 retail sites have run out of at least one type of fuel, Australia's Energy Minister told Parliament. Elsewhere, the Philippines declared a national energy emergency. There are growing signs that Asian countries are hoarding jet fuel. (Bloomberg)
Energy Market Technicals
The May HO contract has fallen today to its lowest value in 8 days --with the forward curve shrinking considerably. The May August HO spread is narrower by more than 19 cents. Momentum remains negative for the energies.
Spot WTI futures see support at the overnight low at 86.34-86.46 and then at 84.37-84.40. Resistance comes in at 91.99-92.04 and then at 93.32-93.36.
May RB has fallen such that it looks that currently it will be hard to sustain a price over $3.00. May RB sees resistance at 2.9925-2.9930 and then at 3.0214-3.0231. Support comes in at 2.8923-2.8943 and then at 2.8577. The overnight low is 2.8736.
May ULSD futures have support at 3.6840-3.6861 and then at 3.6093-3.6108. Resistance lies at 3.8070-3.8090 and then at the overnight high at 3.8522-3.8556.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--May NG is down 4.3 cents at $2.869
NG futures are down today--having fallen to their lowest spot futures value since February 27. 14 day GWDD's "remain comfortably at 5 year lows", as per Celsius Energy analysis. This weak weather demand is in addition to the strong pullback being seen in the energies, reducing some of NG's allure even as global LNG supply remains tenuous.
Average Lower 48 states temperatures are forecast to bounce around at or above normal throughout the coming two-week outlook, as per NOAA data, thus keeping gas demand on the weak side. On Tuesday, the Commodity Weather Group said forecasts shifted slightly warmer, with above-average temperatures expected to cover most of the US through April 2.
Lower 48 states dry gas production is estimated 0.526 BCF/d lower at 112.13 BCF/d today compared to a 30-day average of 113.35 BCF/d, BNEF data shows.
TTF spot European futures prices have gapped lower today. The gap goes from 52.270 down to 51.760 Euro/Mwh. The TTF is also, like the energy complex, being pressured by the easing of supply concerns as a Mideast diplomatic solution is being sought.
Notable in NG futures settlements seen on the CME Tuesday was the weaker performance in the back portion of the curve. April spot futures rose by 5.2 cents and May by 3.8 cents, while the December 2026 contract fell by 3.7 cents, and January 2027 fell by 3.5 cents. The back months were said to have fallen as any resolution of the Iran conflict is seen easing the concerns over geopolitical risk premiums, as per NGI commentary. The pattern of the front months gaining against the winter strip has continued today. April 2026 is down 3.4 cents, while May 2026 is down 3.8 cents, while December 2026 is down 7.0 cents and January 2027 is down 9.1 cents.
Technically the May futures still have negative momentum, having tested support at 2.844-2.849 today. Below that support is seen at 2.807. Resistance lies at 2.951-2.956 and then at 2.981-2.982
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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