Daily Energy Market Update March 24,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy prices are higher amid conflicting signals from the US and Iran regarding possible talks to end the war.

After President Trump said Monday that talks were underway with Iran, Iran said that such talks were "fake news". Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament said on social media that no such talks had taken place. (Investing.com/Reuters) Reuters reported that while direct U.S.-Iran talks had not taken place, Egypt, Pakistan, and Gulf states were relaying messages between the two nations. Iran’s foreign ministry was also seen outlining initiatives to reduce tensions. (investing.com) Israeli officials say that it is unlikely that Iran will agree to US demands, even as Israeli officials say that President Trump is determined to reach a deal with Iran. (Reuters) An Iranian military official said Monday that the war continues until all sanctions are lifted. (Bloomberg)

Valero’s 380 MBPD Port Arthur refinery Texas was shut following an explosion and fire at a 47 MBPD diesel hydrotreater unit. The blaze was near the fluid catalytic cracker, and part of the refinery has been shut down. A decision hasn’t yet been made whether to shut the entire plant, Bloomberg sources said. Shutting the refinery is seen as necessary to contain the fire, Reuters sources said. The refinery processes heavy sour crude oil and other feedstocks into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

The US crude export system is approaching its physical capacity limits as a widening US discount to international benchmarks is driving increased flows to Asia following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, experts said at CERAWeek.  Latest data from Platts shows 38 crude fixtures booked between the USGC and Southeast Asia destinations in March so far, compared to just 13 in February. By comparison, tanker fixtures to Europe have fallen to 23 this month to date from 31 seen in February. WTI crude is trading at a $12-$15/barrel discount to Brent and an even wider discount to Asian prices, creating what the director of global refining and products markets at S&P Global Energy CERA, described as a "very wide arbitrage window" for US crude exports to Asia. The discount is sufficient to cover elevated freight costs. Additionally, Asia is drawing not only US Gulf Coast crude but also refined products from the US Atlantic Coast. The shift in trade patterns has been amplified by China's halt in refined product exports. China exported around 700 MBPD of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel last year, but those flows have stopped since the crisis began, further tightening Asian markets. (Platts)

In Asia, state‑owned China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) has cut operating rates by 5% in March to conserve crude, prioritizing domestic fuel supply. China has also tightened fuel export controls and capped domestic price increases to cushion the impact of the conflict. Sinopec said current stockpiles are sufficient to buffer elevated prices for the next two months, with further run‑rate adjustments planned for April and May. (ING)  Iranian crude flows to China have remained steady or increased during the conflict, reaching about 70 MMBBL over five weeks through mid-March, compared with under 40 MMBBL in the prior five weeks, according to analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA.

The discount for Russian oil delivered into India has flipped to a premium after partial sanctions relief from the US for supplies already at sea. Platts assessed Urals DAP West Coast India versus Forward Dated Brent at a record high premium of $7.20/b on March 23.  Iranian crude oil has been offered to Indian refiners at a premium to ICE Brent of $6-$8/bbl after the U.S. temporarily waived sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil already at sea. Some concerns over the payment mechanism for the oil has Indian refiners wavering over buying the oil. India  has not received a cargo ​from Tehran since May 2019 after it came under U.S. pressure not to buy Iranian crude. (Reuters/Market News)

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken steps toward joining the war in Iran, WSJ said, giving the US military access to King Fahd Base, thus raising the risk of escalation, as per ING commentary. 

Fuel prices at the pump in the US have risen further today. The average gasoline price, as per AAA data, is up 2.1 cents from yesterday to $3.977. That is up 99.5 cents from February 27. The average diesel price at the pump has risen by 6.0 cents today from yesterday. Today's price of $5.345 is up $1.588 from February 27.

Energy Market Technicals

The stochastic momentum indicator is negative for the energies and the RSI momentum indicators have fallen such that they are no longer signaling an overbought condition.

Spot WTI futures see support at 89.39-89.43 and then at 86.71-86.73. Resistance comes in at 94.74-94.80 and then at 96.45-96.55.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas --May NG is up 0.8 cents at $2.882
NG futures are higher today--gaining back some of the sharp 20 cent selloff seen Monday. Monday's selloff was driven by the sharp fall in energy prices as well as the shoulder season weak demand/supply balance. Yet, some support may be coming from Monday's better demand and slightly weaker NG production. Some news wire accounts have suggested that NG futures may be supported by the overall global LNG supply disruptions.

US dry gas consumption Monday seen was 81.52 BCF/d --versus the 5 year seasonal average of 75.7 BCF/d, as per Bloomberg data.

Monday's US NG production as per BNEF data was 112.43 BCF/d--down from the 30 day average of 113.40 BCF/d.

TTF European gas prices are lower today. A "surge" in wind power generation is behind today's selloff, as power prices have dropped sharply in Germany and France, as per Reuters reporting. LNG deliveries to Europe have remained relatively stable this month, but replenishing inventories over the summer could prove challenging if disruptions persist and competition from Asia intensifies. EU gas storage currently stands just above 28%, well below the five‑year average of 41%.  The European Union has called on member states to start filling gas storage early to ensure proper refilling for the next heating season. “Starting storage injections as early as possible would allow us to benefit from a longer injection period and adapt to market circumstances to mitigate pressure on prices and avoid end-of-summer rush,” the European Energy Commissioner said.   (MSN/ING) The selloff in the spot TTF futures has seen the gap that was created a few days ago that went down to Euro 56.375 closed . Technically, momentum is negative for the TTF--with support seen at 48 and then 45.435 Euro/Mwh. Resistance lies at Euro 63.15.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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