Daily Energy Market Update March 23,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies have dropped dramatically this morning as President Trump tweeted on Truth Social that the US & Iran have had "good and productive" talks the past 2 days that could yield "a complete and total resolution of our hostilities". He added that talks would continue throughout the week. But, energy prices have rebounded off the session lows as Iran’s Fars news said  that there’s no direct or indirect communication with the US. (Reuters)

President Trump has said that he will extend his deadline to Iran for opening the Strait of Hormuz to 5 days from the  2 day ultimatum he gave over the weekend. Trump said that the suspension of his threat to attack power plants was “subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.” (AP)  President Trump did not elaborate on the diplomatic negotiations that had taken place. And Iran did not immediately acknowledge any talks between the countries, but the Iranian Foreign Minister did say he spoke by phone with his Turkish counterpart. Turkey has been an intermediary before in negotiations between Tehran and Washington. (AP)

Energy prices had risen Sunday night as President Trump on Saturday gave Iran a two-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or have its power plants bombed. Iran countered that — if its power facilities are attacked — it would close the Strait of Hormuz “completely.” And the Iranian military said that if its power plants are targeted that it will target “all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure” linked to the US and Israel in the region, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said. The Israel Defense Forces began a wave of strikes on infrastructure in Tehran, according to an IDF post on Telegram on Monday that did not provide details on the targets. The US Treasury Secretary said in an interview on NBC on Sunday that attacks are aimed at destroying Iran’s fortifications along the Strait of Hormuz. (Bloomberg)

The IEA is consulting with governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more oil stocks "if necessary", the head of the IEA said today. Although the IEA is discussing further releases of oil stocks, such action wouldn't resolve the crisis. At least 40 energy assets across 9 countries in the Middle East are damaged, he added. He said damage to oil and gas fields, refineries and pipelines across the Middle East would take some time to repair.  (CNBC/Reuters/WSJ)

Iran's President said on Saturday that there needs ‌to be an "immediate cessation" of what ‌he described as U.S.-Israeli aggression to end the war ​and wider regional conflict, Iran's embassy in India said in an X post on Saturday. The Iranian President told India's Prime Minister that there should be guarantees to ⁠prevent a recurrence of such "aggression" in the future. (Reuters)

Iraq on Friday declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil companies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq’s Oil Minister said crude production at Basra Oil Company has been cut to 900 MBPD from 3.3 MMBPD after exports from the country’s southern ports were halted, according to a ministry statement on Friday. The produced quantities were being pumped to operate refineries, the ministry statement said.( Reuters) 

European and U.S. gasoline cargoes are heading to the Asia Pacific after Asian prices surged on tightening supply, Reuters said. At least three gasoline cargoes totaling about 1.6 MMBBL have loaded last week.

U.S. crude exports are on track to hit a record 4.6 MMBPD in March, according to analytics firm Kpler. In December 2025, US crude exports averaged 4.146 MMBPD. (EIA.gov) Exports of refined products, mainly gasoline and diesel, are also expected to reach an all-time high of about 3.2 MMBPD, as per Kpler data. (LSEG)

U.S. energy firms increased the oil ​rig count by two to 414 this week, the highest since mid-December, Baker Hughes said in its weekly report on Friday. (Reuters)

CFTC data issued Friday showed money managers added modest amounts of length to their positioning in WTI, RB and ULSD. WTI net length on ICE/CME combined rose by 9,381 contracts. The net-long position money managers held on the CME was the most bullish in more than eight months, as per Market News analysis. RB net length rose by 2,851 contracts and ULSD net length rose by 3,630 contracts. The CFTC data was for the week ended March 17.

Gasoline and diesel prices at the pump in the US continue to rise. Today the AAA says that the US national average gasoline price is $3.956, which is up 97.4 cents from February 27. The average diesel price today is $5.285, which is up $1.528 from February 27.

Energy Market Technicals

May RB and ULSD made fresh contract highs overnight. The stochastic momentum indicator for the energies has turned downward with today's sharp selloff. The ULSD RSI momentum indicator remains overbought.

WTI spot futures have support at 85.62-85.69 and then at 81.20-81.30. Resistance comes in at 94.75-94.80 and then at 97.65-97.74.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas-May NG is down 14.4 cents at $2.920
NG futures prices are lower today having been dragged down by the sharp pullback in energy prices seen this morning on the back of President Trump's tweets. NG futures are also being weighed down by the prospect for overall tepid gas demand as shoulder season is upon us in the US, even as record warmth invades the Western portion of the US.

The  US Lower 48 states' HDD count in the 11-14 day period fell to 28.1 in the latest run from 33.54, which is 20.47 HDD below the 10-year normal. (Market News)

Spring officially arrived Friday, March 20, and new forecasts say it's shaping up to be a warm few months for most Americans. The news comes as much of the Western United States has already been enduring a summer preview from a huge, record-smashing heat dome across the region. Meanwhile, drought conditions are forecast to worsen or develop for many areas in the West and south-central Plains, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Spring Outlook released March 20 for April through June. That means that hydropower will be lost, making possibly for more NG demand for power generation. (USA Today)

US Lower 48 states dry natural gas production is estimated 0.234 BCF/d higher today at 112.38 BCF/d compared to a 30-day average of 113.39 BCF/d, BNEF data shows.

European TTF prices could average €75/MWh ($25.4/MMBtu) in Q2 2026 and Asian JKM around $26.8/MMBtu on LNG supply disruptions, according to Citi forecasts cited by Reuters. The outlook remains highly uncertain and hinges on the duration and severity of the disruption to LNG flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. TTF could fall to €40/MWh if the conflict ends within one to two weeks and the strait fully reopens. According to a report by British bank HSBC Holdings, as reported by Bloomberg, European natural gas prices this year will be 40% higher than previously forecast and will remain elevated through 2027 amid supply shortages Goldman Sachs warns prices could more than double from here if the Strait stays closed another month. (Forbes) The flow of LNG from the Gulf comes to an abrupt end in the next 10 days, when a handful of final tankers from the region reach their destinations. (Financial Times) Reuters said Saturday that the EU pushed members to scale back gas-storage refill goals to 80% from 90%. Officials, it seems, want to avoid fueling more upside. (Reuters)

Japanese utilities are holding back on LNG purchases for now, a trader confirmed. “Only a few buyers are considering spot cargoes.” While Japan is the world’s second biggest LNG importer after China, it is less exposed to the disruption of flows from the Middle East as only 6 per cent of its supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed. China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed. (Financial Times)

CFTC data from Friday's COT report showed money managers reduced their net short position in NG futures/options on the CME by 17,975 contracts in the week ended Tuesday March 17. This brought their total net short position down to 44,600 contracts.

Early estimates seen for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a draw of 46.6 to 54 BCF. That compares to last year's build of 33 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 21 BCF.

Technically the May daily NG chart has negative momentum. Support is seen at 2.844-2.849 and then at 2.807. Resistance lies at 3.09-3.096 and then at the double top from Friday/today at 3.134-3.136.

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