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- Daily Energy Market Update March 2,2026
March 4, 2026
WTI is up $4.98 at $72.00 RB is up 11.72 cents at $2.4027 ULSD is up 35.94 cents at $2.9554 (these prices reflect the change from the April futures settlements from Friday)
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are much higher today, gapping up over the weekend on the back of the US/Israeli attacks on Iran and the fallout from the attacks.
A wave of attacks on the Mideast region stretched into a third day, resulting in the suspension of most oil production in Iraqi Kurdistan and several major Israeli gas fields, throttling exports to Egypt. (Reuters) As one analyst quoted by Barron's said :" the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed". Although Tehran maintains that the waterway remains open, several shipping companies have begun rerouting vessels away from the narrow passage as a precaution. (Trading Economics) US Defense Secretary Hegseth said today that "this is not Iraq; this is not an endless war." Hegseth further stated that the US' objective is to "destroy Iran's missiles, Navy and deny Iran nuclear weapons." (Bloomberg) Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary, officially declared on Sunday : "We will not negotiate with the United States". (Al Jazeera)
Saudi Aramco shut its Ras Tanura refinery after a drone attack. The refinery is Saudi Arabia's largest with a capacity of 550 MBPD. (Reuters) Asia's jet fuel and diesel cash premiums rose to 3 1/2 year highs today amid concerns over supply disruptions. Asian Jet fuel cash differentials ended the trading session at a premium of $4 a barrel, LSEG pricing data showed, more than $2 higher than the previous close and at levels last seen in September 2022. Diesel cash differentials were at premiums of around $4.25 a barrel, levels last hit in November 2022. Benchmark European diesel refining margins rose about 26% on Monday, to their widest since November 20. Roughly 6 MMBPD of refined products flow out of the Persian Gulf. (ING) Nearly 600,000 metric tons of diesel flows per month from exporters in the Strait of Hormuz went to Europe last year, Kpler shiptracking data showed. Jet fuel flows on this route averaged 1.1 million tons per month. Around 40% of jet fuel exported from refiners via the Strait of Hormuz were bound for Europe last year, the data added. (Reuters)
The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Saturday, killing Iran's Supreme Leader and many key military officials. Iran retaliated, striking several different targets in the region. Ports in Dubai and Oman were hit by drones as Iran has launched missile and drone barrages at Gulf states. (Al Jazeera) Vessels in the area were instructed on Saturday by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country's leading military intelligence force, over the radio that "no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz," according to Reuters. At least three ships have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. At least 150 tankers have dropped anchor in open Gulf waters beyond the Strait of Hormuz, although a handful of Iranian and Chinese vessels have passed through today, according to ship-tracking platform Kpler. (BBC News) Insurers are reported to be pulling back on offering coverage on vessels in the region, hampering any oil flows even if ships wanted to try. (Market News) Marine insurers are cancelling war risk coverage for vessels and oil shipping rates are set to surge further. Brokers pegged the spot rate for hiring a very large crude carrier on the key Middle East to China route early in Asia on Monday about 4% higher than on Friday, or equivalent to at least $12 million. (Reuters)
Indian refiners may revert to buying Russian crude oil amid the events unfolding in the Mideast. The state-held refiners of India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, and Indian government officials met over the weekend to discuss emergency supply plans following the events in the Mideast. India’s current commercial and strategic crude reserves could be sufficient to cover only two weeks of consumption, the sources have told Bloomberg. India has drastically reduced intake of Russian crude in recent weeks, while boosting imports from the Middle East, Venezuela, West Africa, and the Americas. (Oil Price)
The Baker Hughes oil rig count issued Friday showed a drop of 2 units.
CFTC data seen Friday showed increases for the RB,ULSD and WTI net length held by money managers. WTI net length rose by a total of 13,173 contracts on ICE/CME combined for the week ended Tuesday Feb. 24. RB net length rose by 11,085 contracts, while that for ULSD rose by 9,933 contracts.
Energy Market Technicals
The energies have gapped up over the weekend. The RB gapping up over the weekend is also a function of the nearly 21 cent premium that April had over the expired March futures contract. The spot RB and WTI futures saw their session highs on the opening of the market last night, while the ULSD & Gasoil have since made fresh highs. The energies are trading over their DC chart upper bollinger bands. Momentum for the RB and Gasoil are near overbought. Brent and WTI DC chart based momentums have turned positive with today's rally. ULSD DC chart based momentum is trying to turn positive from a neutral condition.
WTI spot futures see the DC chart upper bollinger band intersecting at 69.90. Resistance above comes in at 75.08-75.18. The overnight high is 75.33. Support is seen at 70.41-70.51 and then at 69.20, which is the overnight low. There is a gap down to 67.83. The WTI weekly chart's upper bollinger intersects at 71.82. Weekly chart momentum looks to be cresting.
RB spot futures resistance comes in at 2.4898-2.4914 from weekly chart data. The overnight high is 2.4955. Support is seen at 2.3542-2.3548 via April's 60 minute chart.
ULSD spot futures see support at 2.8945-2.8977 and then at 2.8583-2.8609. The overnight low is below that at 2.7650. Resistance is seen at 3.0476-3.0486, which is the overnight high. Resistance above that is seen then at 3.0936-3.0954 from weekly chart data.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 13.6 cents at $2.995
NG prices have risen in tandem with the other energies after a tepid opening last night and are supported by the news from Qatar of a force majeure on LNG deliveries. TTF European prices have risen dramatically.
Qatar today has declared force majeure on LNG deliveries. (Bloomberg) Qatar's government said an energy facility belonging to gas giant Qatar Energy was attacked by two Iranian drones on Monday, with authorities still assessing the damage. (Reuters) About 20% of global LNG exports come from the Gulf, primarily Qatar, and are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from energy consulting firm Kpler. (CNBC) TTF European spot futures have risen dramatically, gapping higher over the weekend. Currently the TTF spot futures are trading up almost 50% from their Friday settlement.
Money managers added a lot of net short positions in NG futures/options on the CME in the week ended Tuesday February 24. Net short positioning rose by 48,866 contracts to a total net short of 75,706 contracts. The increase was due to over 40,000 contracts of new shorts having been added.
The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued Friday showed an increase of 1 unit.
Technically the NG DC chart's bollinger bands have tightened even further from what we saw last week, thus signaling a breakout is likely from the recent range. Momentum on the DC chart has turned positive. Support for the spot NG futures is seen at 2.910-2.912. The overnight low is 2.867. Below that support lies at recent lows at 2.818-2.826. Resistance comes in at 3.130-3.135 and then at 3.206-3.210.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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