Daily Energy Market Update March 17,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as one comment reads: "The war, now in its 18th day, shows little sign of abating." Iran's Supreme Leader has rejected proposals to reduce tensions. (Reuters)

Iran continues to fire drones and missiles at Arab states in the Persian Gulf and at Israel, and says it’s not interested in ceasefire talks. Iran hit a "massive" gas field in the UAE, setting it ablaze. The field is close to the UAE's border with Saudi Arabia. The drone attack on the Shah field marks the first time Iran has damaged an oil or gas upstream facility in the country during the war. Operations were suspended at the field. (Bloomberg)  The field supplies at least 0.5 BCF/d of gas to the domestic grid. (Reuters)

Crude loadings from the UAE’s port at Fujairah were again halted, according to a note from Inchcape Shipping Services. The ​third-biggest OPEC producer's daily crude oil output is down by more than half since the conflict ​started, with the effective closure of the strait forcing state oil giant ADNOC to implement widespread production shut-ins, Reuters has reported.

The Iran war has seen Mideast crude grades' prices rise to all time highs. Platts Dubai crude price hit a record $153.24/bbl, surpassing Brent's 2008 high of $147.50. Dubai's premium to Brent crude has jumped to a record $56/bbl; Oman's premium stood at near $51, as Oman crude futures hit ​a record of $147.79 a barrel. Record premiums are stalling trade and distorting prices, traders say. Middle East crude exports to Asia fell to 11.665 MMBPD so far in March, down from nearly 19 MMBPD in February and about 32% lower than March 2025 levels, as the war halts shipping ​through the Strait of Hormuz, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. The surge in the benchmarks, used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude bound for Asia, is pushing up costs for Asian refiners, forcing them to seek alternatives or reduce output further in coming months. Spot premiums for crude from the Americas and Africa have risen as Asian refiners scramble ⁠for supply.  Two ​traders said premiums for Brazilian spot crude hit records of $12-$15 a barrel to ICE ​Brent, while premiums for April-loading West African crude on free-on-board basis rose about $1 a barrel from a month ago, with most cargoes sold, one of them said.  (Reuters)

A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while anchored east of the port of Fujairah in the UAE. The projectile caused minor structural damage and no crew members were injured. (WSJ)

President Trump reiterated his call on other nations to join in helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Yet no country has publicly said it will send warships to escort commercial vessels through Hormuz. Asked Monday if the US could end the war this week, Trump responded, “Sure.” He then added: “I don’t think so, but it’ll be soon.”  (Bloomberg)

Goldman Sachs says that refined products face an even larger shock than crude oil. The impact is driven by three main channels: disruptions to Persian Gulf refined product exports, which heavily affect Asia's naphtha and Europe's jet fuel; refinery outages; and reduced medium- and heavy-crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting global production of diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil. Rising freight rates, higher natural gas costs, and trade restrictions could push prices even higher, the bank's analysts add. Today, the distillates are leading the rally. (WSJ)

Today is the last trading day for the April WTI LO options contracts. The $95 calls open interest on the CME as of Monday's close was 9,856 contracts. The $100 call strike had open interest of 17,439 contracts as of Monday's close. These open interest figures do not indicate any possible untoward futures settlement activity today.

The fuel costs at the pump continue to rise. Today's average gasoline price at the pump in the US has risen to $3.790, which is up 7.2 cents from yesterday and is +80.8 cents versus the price seen before the Iran war began. Diesel prices today are averaging $5.044, as per AAA data. That is up 5.6 cents from Monday and is +$1.39 versus the price seen before the Iran war began.

Three major brokerages have raised their oil price outlooks due to the Iran war. UBS now expects Brent at $90 per barrel by end-June, before easing to $85 by end-September and end-December 2026, and $80 by end-March 2027. UBS had previously in early March forecast an end of 2026 Brent oil price of $65 to $67 per barrel. Barclays analysts warn that the oil supply chain could face weeks of realignment. Barclays raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $84 per barrel and now expects prices to “normalize at a higher level than pre conflict,” closer to $80 per barrel longer term rather than the $70 price they previously projected. Mizuho increased its 2026 outlook for Brent and WTI by roughly 14% and 12%, respectively, to $73.25 and $68.25 per barrel. The broker said even a short period of disruption could materially tighten the market, noting that displaced supply reduces the expected 2026 oversupply and makes a return to lower price scenarios increasingly unlikely. The probability of a sharp drop in prices toward the low-$50 range has become “negligible,” Mizuho noted, while a mid-year rebalancing could keep Brent in a $70–75 range. (investing.com)

Energy Market Technicals

Stochastic momentum indicators for the energies still are positive, although they are getting being near overbought. The RSI momentum indicators remain overbought.

May WTI sees support at 91.81-91.88 and then at 88.71. Resistance lies at 97.88 and then at 99.29.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 5.1 cents at $3.074
NG prices are up slightly today as they continue their overall sideways movement near $3. Yesterday's test of $3 was due to a weaker HH cash price and the retreat of the energy prices, thus reducing some of the war premium. The drop in NG futures prices came even as heating and cooling demand picked up.

On Monday, the next day Henry Hub (HH) cash price fell to near $3.120, which was down 8 cents from Friday's price. The HH versus spot NG futures premium fell to + 2.5 cents, from the +5 cent premium seen late last week.

US dry gas consumption is estimated another 6.68 BCF/d higher today at 103.66 BCF/d compared to the seasonal five-year average of around 77.4 BCF/d, Bloomberg shows.

The HH and futures price falls seen Monday came even as colder weather across the mid-section of the US saw Monday's GWDD's rise to their strongest amount seen in the last 5 years. Celsius Energy data said that Monday saw GWDDs that were 9.4 greater than the 5 year average. The latest winter storm made its way into the Northeast overnight bringing a significant increase in regional heating demand today. Gulf Coast weather switches to CDDs as forecasts call for warmer than normal weather through the end of the month.  (Market News)

Lower 48 states dry gas production was estimated at 113.68 BCF/d yesterday compared to a 30-day average of 113.7 BCF/d, BNEF data shows.

Technically the NG spot futures remain stuck in the range seen the past several sessions. Support for the April spit futures comes in at 2.971-2.975 and then at 2.910-2.912. Resistance is seen at 3.180-3.188 and then at 3.275-3.280. Momentum is negative basis the April futures daily chart.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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