Daily Energy Market Update March 16,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil prices are lower now after starting last night by gapping higher. News reports cite efforts by President Trump to open the Strait of Hormuz as causing oil prices to ease back.

On Sunday, Trump said he was demanding ⁠that other countries help to protect the key energy route, adding that Washington was in talks with several nations about policing the strait. President Trump has urged allies to deploy warships to help secure the strategic gateway. Trump plans to announce a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as this ​week, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.  (Reuters) Trump said the strait would soon be "open, safe and free," in a Truth Social post Saturday. "Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K., and others that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send ships to the area," he said. Japan's Defense Minister told lawmakers Monday "we are not at the moment considering issuing a maritime security operation," AFP reported.  (Barron's) Australia is also seen declining to send ships to the Strait. (Investing.com)

Crude prices are lower even as loadings at the key Mideast port of Fujairah have been suspended today again as they were Saturday, as another drone attack occurred. “The port (of Fujairah) is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so any disruption to oil loadings would lead to further market tightening,” as per ING analysis. Fujairah is not only a key export route bypassing the critical Strait of Hormuz, but it is also a major hub for crude and fuels in storage and a key bunkering port for refueling ships. The hub can store about 70 MMBBL of oil.  The port of Fujairah is the end point of a pipeline carrying crude from the giant oilfields in Abu Dhabi. The port of Fujairah exports 1 MMBPD of Abu Dhabi's Murban crude oil. The Port of Fujairah exported an average of 1.7 MMBPD of crude oil and refined fuels each day in 2025, Reuters reported.

The rise in energy prices seen Sunday night was to a large degree due to the concern that US attacks on Iran's Kharg Island over the weekend caused. But, the US targeted only military installations on the island, sparing energy infrastructure. (Reuters) Kharg Island, located about 300 miles from the Strait of Hormuz, is key to Iran's oil industry and has refineries that process nearly all of the country's oil exports.  (Business Insider) Trump threatened to reconsider the decision to avoid oil plants if Iran interfered with the safe passage of ships through the strait. (Barron's)

On Sunday, the IEA said more than 400 MMBBL of oil ⁠reserves will begin flowing to the market soon. Stocks from countries in Asia and Oceania will be released immediately, while those from Europe and the Americas would be available at the end of March, the agency said.  (Reuters)

China's crude oil throughput in Jan-Feb rose 1.9% year on year to 122.63 million tons, NBS showed. Apparent oil demand rose 4.46% to 15.347 MMBPD. Bloomberg said. But, the top Asian refiner, China’s state-controlled Sinopec, plans to slash this month its refinery processing rates by 11-13% as crude supply is choked by the Middle East war, Reuters reported on Friday. Sinopec, whose refineries account for a third of all Chinese throughput, plans to lower its crude runs by between 600 and 700,000 MBPD in March. More than half of Sinopec’s daily crude imports of 4 MMBPD, namely 2.4 MMBPD, come from the Middle East via annual term contracts with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. Overall, the war could force up to 6.0 MMBPD cuts to crude runs across Asia in April, as refineries face severe supply disruption with 65% dependency on Middle East crude, Wood Mackenzie analysts said last week. Wood Mac analysis projects that the crude runs for April 2026 would be China cutting rates by 750 MBPD despite adequate stock levels, and India slashing utilization by 8%, that is, reducing runs by 400 MBPD.  (Oil Price)

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicted that Americans will continue to experience the pinch in their wallets at the gas pump for the “next few weeks,” but he was hopeful that prices could drop below $3 a gallon by the summer. “It is a short-term disruption in the flow of energy,”, he added. (NY Post) Today, the gasoline price at the pump has risen to $3.718, which is up 73.6 cents since February 27th. Analysts are forecasting that the gasoline price at the pump will rise to $4 in the coming days. The diesel price is now up $1.334 since February 27; today's average, as per the AAA, is $4.988. 

Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average above $100 a barrel in March and $85 in April. Goldman now assumes the Strait of Hormuz will operate at just 10% of normal flows for 21 days, followed by a 30-day gradual recovery. That is a significant shift from the team's earlier model, which assumed only a 10-day disruption. Goldman has also raised their Q$ 2026 oil price forecasts. They raised them by $5 to $71 per barrel for Brent and $67 for WTI. (The Street)

Speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 65,438 lots over the last reporting week to 351,032 lots as of last Tuesday. This is the largest net long in Brent futures held since February 2020. The move was driven primarily by fresh longs entering the market. (ING) WTI net length in futures/options on ICE/CME combined rose by 17,596 contracts in the week ended Tuesday March 10. This was mostly a function of new longs and less short positions held on the CME. RB net length fell by 8,807 as per the CFTC report. ULSD net length fell by 2,927 contracts.

Flows from small investors into the United States Oil Fund reached a record $115m over the past five trading days, according to figures from VandaTrack. Activity in options linked to USO, typically another hallmark of retail involvement, surged to its highest-ever level this past week, Bloomberg data shows.  (Financial Times)

Energy Market Technicals

Today's session highs were made at the opening of the session last night. Technically the stochastic momentum indicator is positive for the energies as the price chart of the past week shows a stepladder up pattern. But, the RSI momentum indicator still shows an overbought condition.

WTI spot futures see support at 94.21-94.30 and then at 91.70-91.85. Resistance lies at 99.30-99.32 and then at 102.23-102.44.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 3.3 cents at $3.098
NG spot futures are lower now after having started the overnight session higher on the back of Iran conflict concerns; but, the lack of a bullish weather pattern in the US is providing headwinds as weather forecasts are calling for milder weather later this week.

NatGasWeather is calling for the next 3 days to show high natural gas demand, but demand will turn to low for days 4 through 7 and then days 8 through 15 are set to show demand that is moderate to low.

The Henry Hub (HH) next day cash gas price averaged $3.185/MMBtu on Friday, according to NGI’s MidDay Alert, down from $3.295 on Monday. On Thursday, the HH price was $3.26/$3.28. The HH cash continued Friday to hold a 5 cent premium to the spot NG futures. The trend of lower HH prices seen last week may continue in the coming days thanks to planned maintenance on a critical pipeline serving Sabine Pass LNG, as per NGI commentary.

Money managers reduced their net short position in futures/options on the CME by 13,335 contracts in the week ended Tuesday March 10. This lowered their net short total to 62,574 contracts.

European TTF natural gas futures prices are up slightly today, but remain in the trading range seen the past few sessions. WSJ commentary reads a follows: "“Despite war-related disruptions and many cargoes being diverted to Asia, Europe remains well supplied for now, with steady LNG flows and milder demand,” analysts at ANZ say. “However, competition for cargo with Asia is expected to intensify later in the summer.” Meanwhile, traders await more clarity after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is weighing subsidies or a cap on natural-gas prices to protect its citizens. Narrow LNG-to-TTF spreads in Europe are reducing incentives to import LNG and regasify it for sale into the gas market, Platts said.

Technically, the NG futures remain mired in the trading range seen in recent weeks. Momentum has a slight negative downward look on the April daily chart. Support below is seen at 3.019-3.021 and then at 2.958-2.962. Resistance is seen at 3.275-3.280.
 

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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