Daily Energy Market Update March 13,2026

March 13, 2026

WTI is down $1.84 at $93.89     May RB is down 3.48 cents at $2.8868     May ULSD is down 6.66 cents at $3.5932

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy prices have fallen back today on the back of a news report of a tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz and efforts to open the waterway. Additionally, the US has eased some Russian sanctions on oil.  But, prices rose first overnight as attacks of various sorts continued in the Gulf region. A stronger US dollar may also be weighing on energy prices.

Bloomberg reported that India has a tanker "moving out" of the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg later corrected the news to say that the tanker was moving away from the Gulf of Oman in the east of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, “India is in active talks with Iran to allow at least 23 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz with the first crossings expected by the weekend, two Indian government officials told The Wall Street Journal.” “European countries including France have opened talks with Tehran seeking to negotiate a deal to guarantee safe passage for their ships through the Strait of Hormuz." (Financial Times)

The US has issued a 30 day waiver for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea, drawing criticism from Germany and ​other European allies on Friday but approval from Moscow. According to a Russian presidential envoy, this would affect 100 MMBBL of Russian crude, equal to almost a day's worth of global output. Germany's Chancellor said :" "Six members of the G7 expressed a very clear ​opinion that this was not the right signal. We then learned this morning that the American government has apparently decided otherwise,". Vessel tracking service Kpler said on Friday the U.S. waiver was unlikely to create meaningful new demand. "Most cargoes already appear to be placed with Asian buyers, particularly ​India. Instead, the measure mainly allows Russian ​barrels already in transit to complete ⁠their voyage and discharge," Kpler added.  (Reuters)

At least 19 commercial ships around the Gulf region in the Mideast had been damaged in the war as of Thursday. Attacks on shipping nears its export terminal at Basrah have led Iraq to close its oil terminals. (Argus media) Ships, meanwhile, were ordered on Thursday to leave the port of Mina Al Fahal in Oman as a precautionary measure. Oman primarily ships its crude oil from the Mina Al Fahal terminal, which exports about 1 MMBPD. ING commentary adds: ""If disruptions to Omani oil exports turn out to be more persistent, fears over broader regional supply will grow,". "The market will have to start worrying about more than just Strait of Hormuz oil flows."  Bloomberg commentary adds : "Disruptions at Oman's crude export terminals are also significant as the grade is one of two that can still go into setting the Middle East’s Dubai price benchmark, which in turn determines the value of most of the region's supply."

Iran's new Supreme Leader warned Gulf Arab nations to shut U.S. bases, saying the notion of American protection was “nothing more than a lie.” NATO defenses on Friday intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran over Turkey. The targeted air base is used by U.S. forces. Iran launched multiple attacks early Friday on Gulf Arab states, including dozens of drones at Saudi Arabia.  (AP)  Iran’s new supreme leader, in his first public comments, said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. (Bloomberg)

The dollar rose to a three-and-a-half-month high today against a basket of currencies as investors seek havens and oil prices rally due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. (Barron's)

The fuel prices at the pump in the US continue to rise. The gasoline average price is up 3.2 cents from yesterday and 64.2 cents from Feb. 27. Today's gasoline average, as per the AAA, is $3.630.  The average diesel price today has risen to $4.892. This up 3.2 cents from yesterday and up $1.135 since Feb. 27.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum is negative for the energies basis the stochastic indicator, while the RSI momentum indicator is still in overbought territory for the energies.

WTI spot futures have resistance at 97.50-97.60 and then at 100.62. Support is seen at 89.54-89.67 and then at 86.31-86.40.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas---NG is down 5.8 cents at $3.175
NG spot futures are lower now after trading higher today, having been boosted by strong LNG feedgas demand, a supportive cash price, lighter US NG production and the ongoing Iran conflict. The uptick in prices came even as the EIA gas storage data seen yesterday disappointed. NGI cites an ongoing dilemma of the geopolitical uncertainty versus the US " being on the cusp of soft weather demand". 

Celisus Energy analysis says that as per Thursday’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand rose to 19.3 BCF/d, up +4.2 BCF/d vs 2025 & within 0.2 BCF/d of record highs, courtesy of higher Sabine Pass volumes & near-record interstate flows to Corpus Christi.

US NG output on Thursday was seen at 112. 26 BCF/d as per BNEF data. That is down from BNEF's figure from Sunday of 114. 16 BCF/d.

The EIA gas storage data saw a lighter than expected draw from inventories Thursday. The draw of 36 BCF was about 4 to 8 BCF less than forecast. Total storage fell to 1.848 TCF. This is 141 BCF/8.26% above last year's level, but -17 BCF/-0.91% versus the 5 year average. Next week's EIA gas storage is seen as an injection of 24 BCF as per Celsius Energy analysis and +46 BCF as per the BNEF forecast. This would be the first injection of the season. These estimates compare to last year's build of 9 BCF and the 5 year average draw for the period of 29 BCF. 

U.S. spot natural gas prices for Thursday at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas closed in negative territory for a record 25th straight day as pipeline constraints trap gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin, prompting some analysts to project that gas production could be reduced in the short term. “Continued negative pricing in the Permian is expected for much of the spring. As regional production likely ebbs lower, it may dent national-level headline output in tandem in coming weeks,” analysts at consultancy EBW Analytics Group said in a note. Gas production in the basin has climbed by around 12% a year on average over the past five years (2021-2025). But gas output growth in the Permian is expected to slow to around 4% a year on average in 2026 and 2027, according to EIA’s latest estimates.  The cash average price at the Waha Hub fell to minus $6.34 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for Thursday, down from minus $5.40 for Wednesday and a record minus $7.15 for Tuesday.   (Reuters)

Notable in NG settlements Thursday is the fact that the front April May spread flipped to a positive, with April over May for the first time in almost 6 weeks. The stronger April May spread was likely helped by a stronger next day cash Henry Hub gas price. Thursday's Henry Hub (HH) cash gained 12.5 cents to $3.270, per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert. The HH cash also gained on the front end April NG futures. The cash premium to the spot futures rose Thursday to +5/+7 cents, up from the +2 cent premium the cash held versus April futures in the prior 3 sessions. NGI’s Spot Gas National Average price was up 19.0 cents Thursday to $1.910/MMBtu.

Also Thursday on the CME, the back end Dec 26 thru Feb 27 strip again settled at a better value than the April and May contracts in the front. Dec 26 settled +4.5 cents, Jan 27 was up 5.2 cents and Feb 27 was up 4.2 cents --while April was up 2.4 cents and May was up 1.5 cents. We have seen this occur several times in recent weeks with commentary suggesting a demand increase is expected for LNG come next winter.

Asia's scramble for LNG to replace output cut off by war in the Middle East is drawing more cargoes away from Europe, with at least one U.S. shipment switching its destination to China, which would end a year-long halt in such imports due to tariffs. Asian buyers of liquefied natural gas have been paying around $20 to $25 per mmBtu for March and April delivery. (LSEG) By comparison, today the TTF European spot April futures are trading near $16.61/ mmBtu.

On Thursday, the EIA issued a report detailing their opinion about the buildout of data centers and the boost in electrical demand that that will have going thru to 2027. They detail how wholesale electric prices might rise quickly if the supply of electrical generation does not keep pace with their higher demand forecast. They key on the ERCOT and PJM systems to detail the growth. (eia.gov)

On Thursday, in the LN/NG options on the CME, the July and August $4/$6 call spreads traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 14.6 cents --with 0.12 delta futures sold at $3.64.

Technically, NG spot futures have momentum basis the April daily chart looks to be turning downward with today's selloff. Resistance for the spot April futures comes in at the overnight high at 3.317-3.319. Support comes in at 3.099-3.100.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC