Daily Energy Market Update March 11,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as the market weighs continued disruptions to supplies and continued offensives by Iran, Israel and the US in the ongoing conflict versus a possible large release of oil from reserves by the IEA.

The International Energy Agency has ‌proposed the largest ‌release of oil reserves in ​its history, as per a WSJ report issued Tuesday. The release would ‌exceed the 182 MMBBL of oil that IEA member countries put onto the market ‌in two releases ​in 2022. ​In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs ⁠analysts said that a stockpile release of that size would offset 12 days of the investment bank's estimated 15.4 million-barrel-per-day Gulf exports disruption. (Reuters) " [It] ​doesn't look like the oil market thinks that "largest ever" release of strategic reserves will help much against current crisis," one bank analyst said.

Iran said it had begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, in a move that will lead to further disruption for tankers. The U.S. military said Tuesday it had destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz, though U.S. President Donald Trump said in social media posts that there were no reports yet of Iran mining the passage. If the strait is mined, it could take at least weeks to clean it up once the conflict is over.  (The Telegraph/AP)

Trump has repeatedly said the U.S. is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz ​when necessary. However, sources told Reuters the U.S. Navy has refused requests from the shipping industry for military escorts as the risk of attacks is too high ‌for ⁠now.  (Reuters)

OPEC said on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia sharply increased oil ​production in February ahead of ‌U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and kept its forecasts for relatively strong global ​oil demand growth this year unchanged. OPEC said that Saudi Arabia told OPEC​its oil supply to the ​market ⁠in February was 10.111 MMBPD,  while production was 10.882 ⁠million ​bpd. Saudi Arabia reported ​its production at 10.10 MMBPD for January. Global oil demand growth in 2026 is seen at +1.38 MMBPD and +1.34 MMBPD in 2027. Non OPEC+ supply growth in 2026 was kept unchanged at +630 MBPD. OPEC oil production in February rose by 164 MBPD to 28.63 MMBPD. (Reuters/WSJ)

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait have cut oil production by as much as 6.7 MMBPD, according to a Bloomberg report issued Tuesday.

Two Iranian drones hit near Dubai International Airport, home to the world’s busiest airport for international travel. Four people were wounded but flights continued, the Dubai Media Office said. Iran's joint military command announced it would start targeting banks and financial institutions in the Middle East. That would put at risk particularly Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, which is home to many international financial institutions, as well as Saudi Arabia and the island kingdom of Bahrain. (AP)

An Israeli minister today said there is no time limit on the offensive against Iran. (Bloomberg)

The EIA in its monthly STEO issued Tuesday saw them increase their 2026 and 2027 global oil demand figures. 2026 global oil demand was raised by 400 MBPD to 105.2 MMBPD, while the 2027 global oil demand's estimate rose by 500 MBPD to 106.2 MMBPD. The EIA reduced their global oil production forecast for 2026 by 800 MBPD to 107.0 MMBPD, but they raised 2027 production's estimate by 800 MBPD to 109.6 MMBPD. The EIA significantly raised their US oil production estimate for 2027 by 510 MBPD to 13.83 MMBPD as the oil price rise they foresee will give producers incentive to increase output. The EIA raised their Brent price forecast for 2026 by $21.15 to $74.84. 2027's average Brent price forecast was raised by $11.47 to $64.47. The EIA wrote : " We forecast the Brent crude oil price will remain above $95/b over the next two months, before falling below $80/b in the third quarter of 2026 and around $70/b by the end of the year."

Tuesday's price action in energies was volatile as a tweet on X by the US Energy Secretary that claimed the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz drove prices down only for prices to rally back as the tweet was deleted from X and the Iranian IRGC denied that a ship had been escorted by US forces. (Reuters/Bloomberg)


API                 Forecast        Actual
Crude Oil     +1.1/+2.0        -1.7
Gasoline     -2.04/+2.6        -1.8
Distillate     -0.453/-1.0      -2.3
Cushing           n/av              -0.37          
Runs            -0.2/+0.3%       n/av


Retail gasoline and diesel prices in the US have risen further today. The gasoline rice is $3.578 today, as per AAA data. That is up 3.9 cents from Tuesday and up 59.6 cents since before the Iran war. The diesel price at the pump is up 5.0 cents today at $4.830. It is now up $1.073 since the start of the Iran war.

Yesterday Bloomberg reported that the Brent second month call-put skew was currently up to around +26.9% and just above the highs seen last June. The second month WTI call-put spread has also risen to +27.8%.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum for the WTI basis the DC chart remains negative, but that for the May RB and ULSD look to be turning neutral.

WTI spot futures have support at 81.18-81.19 and then at 76.73-76.84. Those are the prior 2 days' lows. Resistance comes in at 91.45-91.53 and then at 97.19-97.38.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 8.2 cents at $3.102
NG futures are higher as in a few days the weather will pivot to stronger heating demand. NG prices are higher today even as yesterday's EIA STEO forecasts painted a slightly negative picture for NG prices and suggested record NG production is forthcoming. The ongoing threat to global LNG supply due to the Iran conflict is also cited as giving NG futures a boost, as per NGI commentary.

U.S. natural gas output will rise to a record high in 2026, while demand will decline, the EIA said in its monthly STEO on Tuesday. The rise in crude oil production will bring with it associated natural gas production. The EIA projected dry gas production will rise from a record 107.7 BCF/d in 2025 to 109.5 BCF/d in 2026 and 112.3 BCF/d in 2027. Demand will fall from a record 91.9 BCF/d in 2025 to 91.4 BCF/d in 2026 before rising to 92.1 BCF/d in 2027. The EIA lowered their NG price forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The Henry Hub average price for 2026 was lowered by 55 cents from last month's forecast to $3.76. The 2027 average price forecast for US NG was lowered from last month by 53 cents to $3.85. The EIA also wrote :" Although reduced LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz have caused the price of natural gas in Europe and Asia to increase, we expect U.S. natural gas prices to be relatively unaffected by this development."  The EIA projects end of March 2026 gas in storage to be 1.842 TCF; this is down 24 BCF from last month's projection. The EIA's forecast compares to the Desk's survey forecast for end March 2026 inventories to be 1.835 TCF. The EIA sees end October 2026 gas in storage to be 3.971 TCF. That is down 17 BCF from their projection seen last month and compares to the Desk's survey of 3.889 TCF.

Celsius Energy highlights the fact that the NG power burn share has risen of late and is strong versus 2025 power burns. Celsius says that NG's share of "fossil fuel consumption" is now consistently up 5%-7% vs 2025. If this continues, it will support powerburn demand in the Shoulder & Cooling Seasons, they opine.

Notable from Tuesday's LN options trading on the CME was the October November CSO minus 20 cent call open interest falling by 2,900 contracts. The call was bought against selling of the  minus 50 cent put at a cost of 0.5 cents. The October November futures spread settled Tuesday at -28.7 cents. In the July October CSO, the flat call traded 0.8 cents. This was a closing trade. The July October futures spread settled Tuesday at minus 13.3 cents. The October January CSO minus 50 cent/minus 75 cent call spread traded in size at 2.9 cents cost to the minus 75 cent call buyer. The October January futures spread settled Tuesday at -$1.402. The March April 2027 $2.00 call CSO traded 2,100 times at a cost of 18 cents. The March April 2027 futures spread settled Tuesday at  31.3 cents.

Technically the April NG daily chart has positive momentum, although prices look to be rangebound. Support for the spot NG futures lies at 2.998-3.000 and then at 2.910-2.912. Resistance comes in at 3.188-3.190 and then at 3.280.

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