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- Daily Energy Market Update June 30, 2026
Overnight news offered few major surprises, with the market continuing to shift its focus from the immediate geopolitical threat toward the broader supply and demand outlook.
Attention remains centered on the expected U.S.-Iran discussions, although reports overnight raised doubts about whether direct talks will actually take place. While the ceasefire remains in place, Iran continues to emphasize its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, leaving traders cautious about removing geopolitical risk from the market.
Beyond the headlines, volatility continues to ease as markets settle following the sharp moves of the past several weeks. At the same time, underlying physical fundamentals remain soft, with signs that crude markets are adequately supplied and buyers are showing little urgency to secure additional barrels.
The market continues to balance stabilizing technical conditions against a still-cautious fundamental backdrop. With geopolitical headlines becoming less dominant, traders are likely to shift more of their attention back toward inventories, technical levels, and any developments from this week's diplomatic discussions.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude is trading up 0.16 to start the session and is posting another narrow-range day. Overnight, price traded just 0.03 above yesterday's high of 71.15 before pulling back, highlighting the lack of follow-through buying.
The recent contraction in daily ranges and declining volatility suggest the market is coiling ahead of a breakout or volatility expansion. However, with the U.S. Independence Day holiday approaching, lighter participation could also be contributing to the subdued price action.
Price continues to trade below the 200-day moving average at 74.22, but selling pressure has also begun to stabilize as downside momentum has slowed. Momentum remains at depressed levels and continues to generate repeated crossover signals, reflecting ongoing indecision.
Key Levels
Resistance
74.22 – 200-day moving average
81.33 – 20-day moving average
87.30 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (April high to Friday's low)
Support
67.83 – Bottom of the gap from the start of the war
63.28 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating Oil is opening the session higher at 3.2259 and is currently trading near the session high, above yesterday's high. The market is beginning to see follow-through buying after last week's bullish momentum crossover from oversold conditions.
Since that crossover, Heating Oil has posted five consecutive sessions with higher lows, suggesting buying interest may be improving. The next key technical test will be the 20-day moving average. The market has not posted a close above this level in more than two weeks, making it an important area to watch for confirmation that the recovery can continue.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.3342 – 20-day moving average
3.3563 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to June 18 low)
3.4660 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.9708 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (January low to May high)
2.8820 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.6765 – 200-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is opening the U.S. session up 0.16 at 3.13. It has broken above the highs from the previous several sessions and continues to trade near the high of the day, indicating improving near-term strength.
Momentum has crossed back to the upside, signaling the potential for a near term bottom. However, momentum has generated several crossover signals over the past few weeks, so additional confirmation is still needed. With the spread having reached deeply oversold levels, continued trading above the recent breakout zone between 2.90 and 3.00 could attract additional buying and support a broader recovery.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.92 – 20-day moving average
5.32 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to last week's low)
6.39 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.24 – 200-day moving average
1.00 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural Gas is trading up 0.05 at 3.231 to start the U.S. session after bouncing once again from the 50-day moving average. Yesterday's price action continued to reflect the market's lack of conviction in either direction. After testing the upper Bollinger Band the previous session, prices pulled back toward the middle of the range near the 20-day moving average.
The 50-day moving average once again provided support, marking the sixth session in which price has tested the level and held. After closing near the moving average yesterday, the market rebounded from it again this morning, continuing to reinforce it as an important near-term support level.
Momentum remains slightly positive but is still close to the neutral zone, suggesting the market continues to consolidate rather than establish a clear trend.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.342 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.418 – Double top from early June
Support
3.182 – 50-day moving average
3.115 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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