- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update June 29, 2026
Weekend developments continue to shape trading to start Monday's session. The U.S. and Iran agreed to halt attacks ahead of another round of talks expected this week, reducing immediate concerns over further military escalation. However, the market continues to treat the agreement as preliminary rather than a final resolution.
One of the more notable developments over the weekend was that vessels continued transiting the Strait of Hormuz despite the recent conflict. Bloomberg reported that some inbound ships are delaying AIS transmissions until reaching their loading terminals, making tanker movements more difficult to track. That reduces transparency into actual shipping activity at a time when the market is closely monitoring crude and refined product flows.
Iran's foreign minister also reiterated that Tehran retains authority over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz under the preliminary agreement, leaving uncertainty over future shipping conditions even as talks resume.
The market's focus this week is likely to remain on diplomatic developments, any changes in tanker traffic through the Strait, and whether additional details emerge from the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations. While the ceasefire has reduced the immediate risk of escalation, traders appear to be waiting for confirmation that the agreement can hold before making larger adjustments to geopolitical risk premiums.
Crude (CLQ6)
Crude is trading down 0.87 to 70.10 at the start of the U.S. session. After opening higher overnight, prices have pulled back and are now trading right around the 200-day moving average at 70.15.
Momentum remains oversold and continues to generate repeated crossover signals, reflecting ongoing market indecision. Price is also forming an inside day relative to both Friday's and Thursday's trading ranges, suggesting a potential breakout setup as volatility continues to contract.
Key Levels
Resistance
78.14 – June 22 spike high
80.61 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to Friday's low) and the 20-day moving average
84.33 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
66.29 – Gap from the start of the war
65.05 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CLQ6)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating Oil opened higher overnight and remains higher for the session, trading at 3.1314, but has given back some of its early gains. The overall trading range has been relatively narrow, with price forming an inside day relative to both Friday's and Thursday's ranges. Friday also traded as an inside day compared to Thursday, creating a coiling pattern that could lead to increased volatility once price breaks out of the current range.
Momentum remains oversold but has crossed higher and has been improving over the past few sessions, suggesting downside pressure may be easing.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.3563 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to June 18 low) and the 20-day moving average
3.4660 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
3.4931 – Previous swing high
Support
2.9714 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (January low to May high)
2.8842 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.7451 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread opened higher overnight but has since pulled back to 2.40 at the start of the U.S. session. It is also trading as an inside day after Friday's inside day, continuing a tightening consolidation pattern. Momentum remains oversold and has continued to generate repeated crossover signals since the beginning of June, reflecting ongoing indecision and a lack of sustained directional conviction.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.17 – Top of the recent coiling range
5.11 – 20-day moving average
5.32 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to Thursday's low)
Support
2.22 – 200-day moving average
1.05 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is trading down 0.018 at 3.261 to start the U.S. session. Friday's price action briefly pushed above the upper Bollinger Band at 3.343 before retreating. The Bollinger Bands continue to contain price action, as they have for the past several weeks. Their continued tightening reflects declining volatility as the market moves into the summer season.
Momentum is slightly above neutral and continues to point higher, but price has yet to break out of its current trading range, suggesting buyers and sellers remain in balance.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.343 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.375 – Double top from Monday and Friday of last week
3.418 – Double top from early June
Support
3.231 – 20-day moving average
3.182 – 50-day moving average (has held multiple tests over the past two weeks)
3.119 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply