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- Daily Energy Market Update June 26, 2026
Crude oil remains under pressure this morning as the market continues to remove geopolitical risk premium from prices. An attack on a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz briefly raised security concerns overnight, but the incident failed to materially change market sentiment as oil flows through the region continued.
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-conflict levels, but tanker traffic has continued to improve as more vessels transit the waterway. While some shipping companies are reassessing routes following the latest attack, there has been no evidence of a significant disruption to crude exports, keeping the focus on the ongoing recovery in Gulf supply.
Price action continues to reflect improving supply expectations despite lingering geopolitical risks. Expectations for rising Middle East exports and improving crude availability continue to outweigh security concerns, contributing to another round of selling pressure. However, with shipping activity still below normal levels, traders remain sensitive to any headlines that could interrupt the current normalization process.
Crude (CLQ6)
Crude oil is opening down $1.75 at $70.16. Overnight price action has remained within yesterday's trading range. Yesterday, crude briefly traded below the 200-day moving average at $70.11 before rallying to settle back above this key technical level. Although the market is posting an inside day so far, prices are currently testing the 200-day moving average.
Momentum remains oversold but is no longer pointing lower, suggesting downside pressure may be easing. With prices hovering around the 200-day moving average and momentum beginning to stabilize, the market appears to be at an important technical pivot.
Key Levels
Resistance
$70.11 — 200-Day Moving Average
$80.82 — 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (May High to Yesterday's Low)
$81.73 — 20-Day Moving Average
Support
$68.90 — Yesterday's Low
$66.57 — Lower Bollinger Band
$66.29 — Gap from the Start of the War
Crude (CLQ6)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is also opening lower this morning at 3.1070. The market is posting an inside day, while momentum remains in oversold territory but continues to point higher. Heating oil continues to show relative strength compared with crude oil, as prices have held above last Friday's low of 3.0013 despite the continued weakness in crude.
A move outside this week's trading range should provide a clearer indication of the market's next near-term direction.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.2206 — Top of This Week's Trading Channel
3.3563 — 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (May High to Last Friday's Low) and 20-Day Moving Average
3.4660 — 50% Fibonacci Retracement
Support
3.0013 — Last Friday's Low
2.9708 — 50% Fibonacci Retracement (January Low to May High)
2.9081 — Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is down 0.84 at 2.21 to start the U.S. session. Yesterday, the spread briefly traded below the 200-day moving average before rebounding to close back above it. This morning, prices are hovering just above the 200-day moving average at 2.20 while posting an inside day.
Momentum remains oversold but appears to be attempting to turn higher. It is worth noting that the stochastic oscillator has crossed higher and then rolled back over several times since entering oversold territory at the beginning of June, highlighting the frequent changes in sentiment at these lower levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.33 — 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (May High to Yesterday's Low) and 20-Day Moving Average
6.40 — 50% Fibonacci Retracement
6.67 — 50-Day Moving Average
Support
1.86 — Yesterday's Low (Lowest Level Since Early March)
1.44 — Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is up 0.046 at 3.339 following overnight trading. Prices are trading near the session high, which remains within the Bollinger Bands, just below the upper band at 3.363. Despite the early strength, the market is still posting an inside day.
Momentum is pointing higher as it begins to move out of neutral territory. However, a break above the recent trading range will still be needed to confirm a stronger directional move.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.363 — Upper Bollinger Band
3.418 — Double Top from Early June
3.628 — 200-Day Moving Average
Support
3.237 — 20-Day Moving Average
3.181 — 50-Day Moving Average and Key Recent Support
3.112 — Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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