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- Daily Energy Market Update June 25, 2026
Oil markets are extending their recent decline as prices continue to drift back toward pre-war levels, with WTI holding around the $69.50 area and Brent in the low $70s. The tone remains soft as the market continues to unwind the geopolitical risk premium built up during the Iran conflict earlier this year.
The main driver has been the ongoing normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic continues to recover steadily, with a higher number of vessels transiting the waterway and efforts underway to clear remaining congestion in the Gulf. That improvement in flow has reinforced the view that supply disruption risk is fading more quickly than initially expected.
As physical supply concerns ease, attention is shifting back toward fundamentals. The market is starting to reassess whether returning Middle East barrels and improving export flows from the region can be fully absorbed, especially with demand signals still uneven across Asia and other key consuming regions. That balance has tilted sentiment more defensive in the near term.
Overall, the energy complex is in a recalibration phase rather than a shock phase. The war premium is still being stripped out of prices, but the pace of normalization in shipping and supply chains remains the key variable traders are focused on. Until that process fully stabilizes, price action is likely to remain heavy with rallies fading into supply.
Crude (CLQ6)
Crude oil is down $0.76 at $69.60. The market has broken through the 200-day moving average and is currently trading just below it at $69.58.
Traders will be watching closely for a settlement below the 200-day moving average, as such a close would represent an important technical breakdown. A confirmed break could open the door for crude oil (CL) to test the next major support level: the gap from the beginning of the war, which comes in at $66.29.
Momentum indicators remain in oversold territory and have not yet crossed back higher. Momentum continues to point lower, suggesting downside pressure remains in place.
Key Levels
Resistance
$70.06 — 200-Day Moving Average
$80.02 — 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (May high to overnight low)
$82.48 — 20-Day Moving Average
Support
$67.90 — Lower Bollinger Band
$66.29 — Gap from the Start of the War
Crude (CLQ6)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is opening modestly lower and continues to trade within its range of the past week. Price action has shown its relative strength compared with crude during the recent decline.
A break outside the recent range of 3.0013 to 3.2002 will likely generate follow-through buying or selling and provide a clearer signal of the market's near-term direction.
Momentum remains crossed higher from deeply oversold levels, which could favor a bounce from current prices if support continues to hold.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.2002 — Top of Recent Range / Monday's High
3.3563 — 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 20-Day Moving Average
3.4660 — 50% Fibonacci Retracement
Support
2.9708 — 50% Fibonacci Retracement (January Low to May High)
2.9190 — Lower Bollinger Band
2.7443 — 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is down 0.39 overnight, trading at 1.99. The move lower has pushed the spread below the key 200-day moving average at 2.18. A close below the 200-day moving average would mark the first settlement below that level since January and could trigger additional selling from longer-term market participants.
Momentum remains oversold and continues to point lower, suggesting downside pressure is still in place.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.18 — 200-Day Moving Average
5.32 — 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 20-Day Moving Average
6.39 — 50% Fibonacci Retracement
Support
1.67 — Lower Bollinger Band
1.21 — Breakout Area from the start of the war
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is up 0.038 at 3.299 this morning. The overnight high of 3.341 stopped just short of the upper Bollinger Band at 3.359, keeping prices confined within the multi-week trading range.
Volatility has been dropping as the market continues to consolidate. Momentum indicators confirm the lack of a clear trend, remaining in neutral territory and moving sideways.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.359 — Upper Bollinger Band
3.418 — Double Top from Early June
3.630 — 200-Day Moving Average
Support
3.237 — 20-Day Moving Average
3.178 — 50-Day Moving Average
3.114 — Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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