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- Daily Energy Market Update June 24, 2026
Energy markets continued to unwind geopolitical risk premium overnight as traders focused on improving crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of additional Iranian barrels returning to the market. Crude prices extended this week's decline, with WTI falling back toward pre-war levels as concerns over an immediate supply disruption continued to fade.
While U.S. and Iranian officials remain publicly at odds over several key aspects of last week's peace framework—including nuclear inspections, access to frozen assets, and long-term management of the Strait of Hormuz—the market's primary focus remains on physical supply. Tanker traffic through the Strait is increasing, temporary shipping corridors have been established, and the recently announced 60-day sanctions waiver is expected to facilitate additional Iranian crude exports.
Additional pressure came from signs that regional supply is beginning to recover. Iraqi exports continue to increase, Iranian barrels are returning to global markets, and shipping activity through Hormuz is gradually normalizing following months of disruption.
Recent price action suggests traders are placing greater emphasis on returning supply and improving shipping flows than on geopolitical headlines. While negotiations remain fragile and several key issues remain unresolved, the market has so far been reluctant to rebuild a significant risk premium without evidence of renewed disruptions to physical energy flows.
Crude (CLQ6)
Crude oil broke below the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level overnight and is opening the U.S. session down 1.03 at 72.20. The market is now trading between the 200-day exponential moving average at 74.44 and the 200-day simple moving average at 70.36. The next key support area comes in at 70.36, where the 200-day simple moving average aligns with the lower Bollinger Band.
Momentum indicators remain deeply oversold, but in the current geopolitical environment, technical signals are taking a back seat to headline-driven developments. As a result, traders are likely to place greater emphasis on news flow and shifts in risk sentiment than on traditional momentum readings.
Key Levels
Resistance
74.44 – 200-day exponential moving average
82.46 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to overnight low)
83.39 – 20-day moving average
Support
70.36 – 200-day simple moving average and Lower Bollinger Band
66.29 – Gap from the start of the war
Crude (CLQ6)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is also opening lower at 3.0936, but unlike crude oil, it is posting an inside day with a trading range roughly half the size of yesterday's. This relative stability suggests the market is holding up better despite the broader weakness across the energy complex.
Prices continue to hold above the key 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (December low to May high) at 2.9776. Momentum indicators remain deeply oversold but crossed higher in prior sessions, providing an early indication that downside momentum may be beginning to fade.
If prices break below the 2.9776 support level, additional support should emerge from the lower Bollinger Band and then the 200-day exponential moving average. For now, the market remains above a key technical support zone and continues to show signs of stabilization despite the recent selloff.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.3563 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to Friday's low)
3.3948 – 20-day moving average
3.4660 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.9776 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (December low to May high) and Lower Bollinger Band
2.8536 – 200-day exponential moving average
2.7526 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread has broken below the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 3.07, a support area that had been tested repeatedly but held on a closing basis over the previous five sessions. Overnight, the spread traded down to 2.64, its lowest level since early April, and is currently down 0.45 on the day.
The break below 3.07 shifts attention to whether the market can close below this former support level. A settlement below 3.07 would reinforce the recent downside breakout and leave the next major support zone at 2.20 in focus, where the lower Bollinger Band aligns with the 200-day simple moving average.
Momentum indicators remain oversold, but that signal carries less significance given that momentum has spent much of the past month in oversold territory.
The spread is also now trading decisively below the 200-day exponential moving average at 3.35, highlighting the deterioration in the longer-term technical outlook and confirming that sellers remain in control.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.35 – 200-day exponential moving average
5.80 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to overnight low) and 20-day moving average
6.78 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average
Support
2.20 – Lower Bollinger Band and 200-day simple moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is opening the session up 0.05 at 3.240. Yesterday's selloff stopped precisely at the 50-day moving average at 3.174, which was highlighted as a key pivot level. That support held again overnight, helping the market stabilize and bounce into the U.S. session.
Momentum indicators remain firmly in neutral territory, reinforcing the lack of a clear directional bias. Price action continues to revolve around the 20-day moving average, with neither buyers nor sellers able to establish sustained control of the market.
The recent trading pattern continues to reflect a consolidation phase, with support holding near the 50-day moving average and resistance developing near the upper Bollinger Band and recent highs. For now, the technical picture continues to favor range-bound trading.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.354 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.418 – Double top from late May and early June
Support
3.174 – 50-day moving average
3.098 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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