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- Daily Energy Market Update June 23, 2026
Energy markets continued to unwind geopolitical risk premium overnight as signs of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations outweighed concerns about further supply disruptions in the Middle East. Crude oil extended Monday's decline after the U.S. granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver and reports indicated that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually increasing following months of disruptions.
The market's focus has shifted from the threat of lost supply to the prospect of additional barrels returning to the market. Iranian crude exports are beginning to recover, while Iraq has increased production from its southern oil fields and additional Gulf crude supplies are becoming available. Traders are increasingly viewing recent developments as supply-positive, helping pressure prices lower despite the fragile geopolitical backdrop.
Physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain the key variable. While oil and LNG shipments have resumed and shipping activity is improving, logistical challenges remain. Market participants continue to monitor tanker traffic, port operations, and security conditions for signs that flows can continue normalizing. The reopening process is expected to be gradual rather than immediate.
As a result, crude prices have continued to retreat from the highs reached during the height of the geopolitical tensions. The market is now balancing improving supply expectations against still-elevated geopolitical risks, with traders appearing more focused on the pace of supply restoration than the potential for additional disruptions.
Crude (CLQ6)
Crude oil is opening the session modestly lower at 73.53, down 0.34 on the day. Overnight, prices traded down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level that was highlighted yesterday as key support. Price action remains contained above the lower Bollinger Band, which comes in this morning at 72.14.
Momentum indicators have crossed higher from deeply oversold territory, highlighting the potential for buying interest to emerge and support a bounce from current levels. While the broader trend remains under pressure, the combination of oversold momentum and support holding increases the likelihood of a near-term recovery attempt.
Key Levels
Resistance
83.03 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to this morning's low)
84.32 – 20-day moving average
86.29 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement
Support
72.14 – Lower Bollinger Band
72.48 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
69.98 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CLQ6)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is also opening the U.S. session modestly lower at 3.0463. Both Friday's low and the overnight low have held just above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (January low to May high) at 2.9708, highlighting the importance of this support area. Adding to the significance of the level, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement aligns closely with the lower Bollinger Band.
Momentum indicators have crossed higher from deeply oversold territory, providing an early indication that buying interest may be returning. While a confirmed reversal has yet to develop, the combination of oversold momentum and support holding near a key technical level increases the potential for a near-term recovery bounce.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.3563 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to Friday's low)
3.4135 – 20-day moving average
3.4660 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.9708 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and Lower Bollinger Band
2.7443 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
2.6513 – 200-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is opening the session nearly unchanged at 3.32. Today marks the fifth consecutive session in which prices have traded below the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 3.07 (December low to May high) but have been unable to sustain a move lower. Over the previous four sessions, the spread traded below this level intraday before settling back above it, reinforcing the importance of this support area.
Additional support comes from the lower Bollinger Band, which is currently at 2.75 and sits just below the Fibonacci level. The convergence of these two technical indicators strengthens the support zone and suggests downside momentum may be fading.
Momentum indicators have crossed higher from deeply oversold territory and continue to point upward. This improvement in momentum, combined with the market's repeated defense of key support, increases the potential that the spread may bounce from current levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.94 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average
6.89 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average
7.84 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
3.07 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
2.75 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.16 – 200-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is opening the session down 0.035 at 3.246. The market has been consolidating for the past several weeks and is once again pulling back toward the 20-day moving average after testing the upper Bollinger Band at 3.371 yesterday.
Recent price action continues to support the view that natural gas remains range-bound, with rallies finding resistance near the upper end of the trading range and pullbacks attracting support near the key moving averages. Until either support or resistance is decisively broken, the market appears likely to remain in a consolidation pattern.
Stochastic momentum is also confirming the lack of directional bias, holding near the midpoint of its range around 50.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.371 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.417 – Double top from late May and early June
3.638 – 200-day moving average
Support
3.219 – 20-day moving average
3.174 – 50-day moving average
3.059 – June 15 low
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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