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- Daily Energy Market Update June 22, 2026
Energy markets over June 21–22 were driven by sharp swings in geopolitical risk premium tied to U.S.–Iran tensions and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Prices initially spiked as headlines pointed to renewed threats of conflict, including reports of Iran closing the Strait and U.S. rhetoric signaling potential escalation, briefly pushing Brent to 82.30 and WTI higher on the open.
The risk premium quickly unwound after Vice President JD Vance indicated progress in negotiations and confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remained open. High-level U.S. and Iranian talks in Switzerland reinforced expectations of a continued ceasefire framework, easing fears of an immediate supply disruption through the key shipping lane.
At the same time, supply-side developments leaned bearish. Iranian officials pointed to export waivers, asset releases, and reconstruction efforts that could accelerate the return of barrels to market. Reports also indicated significant volumes of Iranian crude continuing to move despite earlier restrictions, reinforcing the view that physical supply has been more resilient than expected.
The net effect has been a market oscillating between headline-driven geopolitical spikes and growing expectations of supply normalization. Without actual disruption to flows, the market has been quick to fade war-premium highs and refocus on barrels returning to the system rather than barrels being removed.
Crude (CLQ6)
Crude oil rallied to an overnight high of 78.14 but is beginning the U.S. session lower by 0.62 at 75.35.
Friday's low held just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (December low to May high) at 72.48. At the time, momentum indicators were oversold and beginning to turn higher. Friday's session also produced signs of a bullish reversal, making a new low for the move before reversing sharply higher. The market not only closed above the previous session's close but also finished back inside the lower Bollinger Band.
The bullish reversal from Friday remains valid as long as crude does not close below Friday’s low or the key 61.8% Fibonacci support level at 72.48.
Key Levels
Resistance
83.25 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to Friday's low)
85.38 – 20-day moving average
86.46 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement
Support
73.92 – Lower Bollinger Band
72.48 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
69.92 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CLQ6)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is opening the session higher at 3.1200 after rallying to an overnight high of 3.2002.
Momentum turned higher on Friday and is beginning to cross over after making a new low. Friday's low also held just above a key support level. The market bottomed at 3.0013, with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (January low to May high) coming in at 2.9708.
Despite the bounce, Friday's action fell short of confirming a bullish reversal. The market failed to close above the previous day's high and did not finish back inside the Bollinger Bands.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.3563 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to Friday's low)
3.4660 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average
3.5148 – 50-day moving average
Support
3.0503 – Lower Bollinger Band
3.0013 – Friday's low
2.9708 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread rallied to an overnight high of 4.71 but has pulled back to open the session modestly lower by 0.16 at 3.81.
The spread is showing signs that the recent move lower may be becoming stretched. Friday marked the third consecutive session in which price tested, but failed to close below the major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 3.07. The test of this key support level produced several bullish signals.
Friday's session produced a bullish reversal bar, making a new low for the move before closing above the previous day's close. The market also finished back inside the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting downside momentum may be fading. In addition, momentum indicators made a new low but have since crossed over and turned higher, highlighting that selling pressure may be losing strength.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.94 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to last week's low)
6.30 – 20-day moving average
6.89 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average
Support
3.07 – Lower Bollinger Band and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
2.86 – Last week's low
2.14 – 200-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is opening the session up 0.06 at 3.338 after holding the support levels highlighted on Friday.
Over the past three sessions, prices repeatedly found support near the 50-day moving average at 3.174, briefly trading below that level intraday before recovering and closing back above it. That support held once again, and the market has now taken out last week's high at 3.319, providing further confirmation that buyers have regained near-term control.
Momentum indicators, which crossed higher late last week, continue to look constructive. While the initial crossover occurred from neutral territory rather than oversold levels, the market's ability to hold above the 50-day moving average and rally back above the 20-day moving average suggests the recent consolidation phase may be transitioning into a renewed upward move.
The next test for bulls comes immediately, with prices opening just below the upper Bollinger Band at 3.388. A move through that level would put the June 1 high at 3.418 into focus, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 3.528. As long as prices remain above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the near-term technical outlook remains constructive.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.388 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.418 – June 1 high
3.528 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (January high to April low)
Support
3.212 – 20-day moving average
3.174 – 50-day moving average
3.036 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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