- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update June 18, 2026
Crude extended its recent decline overnight as the market continued to remove geopolitical risk premium following the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Brent traded below $79/bbl while WTI fell to its lowest levels since early March as traders continued to price in the expected normalization of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The market's focus is shifting away from immediate supply disruption concerns and toward the timeline for restoring regional exports.
Reports overnight indicated that tanker traffic has already begun moving through the Strait, reinforcing expectations that oil flows will gradually improve in the coming weeks. The agreement calls for traffic through Hormuz to return toward full capacity over the next 30 days, although market participants continue to monitor vessel movements and export activity for evidence that the recovery is progressing as expected.
While the geopolitical risk premium has been sharply reduced, uncertainty remains regarding the pace at which production, exports, and shipping activity normalize across the region. Several analysts have noted that the recovery in physical flows is likely to be gradual rather than immediate, helping to limit expectations for a rapid surge in available supply.
For traders, attention is increasingly turning toward physical market data and confirmation that exports continue to recover. With the initial reaction to the peace agreement largely priced in, near-term price action is likely to be driven by evidence of improving crude flows, broader macroeconomic sentiment, and the market's assessment of how quickly global supply balances adjust to the post-conflict environment.
Crude (August Contract)
August Crude is opening the U.S. session down 1.39 at 74.65 after extending its recent decline overnight. Yesterday's trade produced a bullish reversal day, with the market posting a lower low and closing higher than the previous session. However, the signal was weakened by the market's inability to close back inside the Bollinger Bands, resulting in a second consecutive close below the Lower Bollinger Band.
The back-to-back closes outside the Bollinger Bands, combined with momentum indicators continuing to make new lows and trend lower, suggest that downside pressure remains firmly in place. While the market is approaching significant longer-term support levels, technical indicators currently point to the possibility of additional weakness before a more durable bottom can form.
Resistance
• 83.61 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to this morning's low
• 86.19–86.76 – Confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 20-day moving average
• 87.69 – 50-day moving average
Support
• 72.48 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the December low to the May high
• 69.85 – 200-day moving average
• 66.29 – Gap from the day the conflict began
Crude (CLQ6)
Heating Oil (August Contract)
Heating Oil is also opening lower this morning at 3.1162 after extending its recent decline overnight. Yesterday's bounce from the lows was more muted than the recovery seen in crude oil, highlighting the relative weakness in the distillate market. The session closed almost exactly on the lower Bollinger Band after finishing below the band the previous day.
With prices once again trading outside the lower Bollinger Band this morning and momentum indicators continuing to make new lows while pointing lower, technical conditions suggest there may still be room for additional downside. While the market is approaching important support levels, there are currently few signs that selling pressure has been exhausted.
Resistance
• 3.4652 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to this morning's low
• 3.5281 – 20-day moving average
• 3.5824 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
• 3.0430 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the January low to the May high
• 2.7985 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
• 2.6882 – 200-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is opening modestly lower this morning at 3.44 (-0.26). Price is currently trading right on the lower Bollinger Band after settling near that level yesterday. The spread continues to hold the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on a closing basis, despite briefly trading below it during each of the past three sessions. Momentum remains deeply oversold but appears to be starting to turn higher, suggesting downside momentum may be beginning to fade.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement remains the key technical level in the near term. A continued hold above this support could encourage additional short-covering and stabilization, while a decisive break below it would open the door for a move toward longer-term support levels.
Resistance
• 5.94 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to Tuesday's low
• 6.50 – 20-day moving average
• 6.89 – Confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day moving average
Support
• 3.07 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to Tuesday's low
• 2.11 – 200-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural Gas is opening the U.S. session up 0.037 at 3.22. This marks the third consecutive session trading around the 20-day moving average at 3.201. Over the past three sessions, prices have repeatedly found support near the 50-day moving average at 3.168, with the market briefly trading below that level intraday before recovering and closing back above it.
Momentum indicators have crossed higher, although the signal is occurring from neutral territory rather than oversold conditions, making it somewhat less significant from a technical perspective. Even so, the market's ability to hold above the 50-day moving average while continuing to test the 20-day moving average suggests a near-term consolidation pattern remains in place.
Resistance
• 3.319 – Yesterday's high
• 3.363 – Upper Bollinger Band
• 3.417 – Double top from late May
Support
• 3.168 – 50-day moving average
• 3.059 – June 15 reversal-bar low
• 3.036 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply