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- Daily Energy Market Update June 17, 2026
Crude prices stabilized overnight after two sessions of aggressive selling removed a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into the market during the U.S.-Iran conflict. After falling sharply at the start of the week, both Brent and WTI spent the overnight session consolidating near recent lows as traders assessed the implications of the agreement and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Market attention is beginning to shift away from the initial announcement and toward the practical implications of restoring normal crude flows through the region. While the agreement reduces the immediate threat of supply disruptions, questions remain regarding the pace at which exports, shipping activity, and broader energy logistics return to normal. As a result, traders are increasingly focused on physical market developments rather than geopolitical headlines alone.
Adding to the softer tone, the International Energy Agency released a longer-term outlook suggesting global oil supplies could outpace demand growth in the years ahead. The report reinforced the view that supply concerns have eased considerably following recent developments in the Middle East and contributed to the broader pressure across the energy complex.
Despite the recent selloff, some underlying support remains in the market. Industry participants continue to monitor inventory levels and physical supply trends as the market adjusts to a rapidly changing outlook. For now, traders remain focused on whether crude can establish a near-term bottom after this week's sharp decline and what the reopening of regional supply routes ultimately means for global balances.
Crude (Continuous)
Crude is opening the U.S. session relatively unchanged at 76.55 after stabilizing near recent lows. Momentum indicators have begun to cross higher from oversold territory, suggesting downside pressure may be starting to fade. Price is currently trading below the 200-day exponential moving average at 79.64 but remains above the 200-day simple moving average at 73.60, placing the market in an important technical area.
A close back above the 200-day exponential moving average would be an sign that a short-term low has been established. Such a move would also coincide with a reversal back inside the Bollinger Bands, reinforcing the idea that the recent selloff may be losing momentum.
Resistance
• 77.40 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 79.64 – 200-day exponential moving average
• 89.78 – 20-day moving average
Support
• 73.60 – 200-day simple moving average
• 67.83 – February 27 gap
Crude (Continuous)
Heating Oil (continuous):
Heating Oil is opening the U.S. session relatively unchanged at 3.1997 after stabilizing following this week's sharp decline. Momentum indicators remain in oversold territory but continue to point lower, suggesting that while selling pressure may be slowing, a clear reversal signal has yet to emerge. The market's low yesterday and again overnight held just above the 200-day exponential moving average at 3.1319.
Yesterday's close finished just back inside the lower Bollinger Band, and after briefly trading below the band again overnight, prices have once again moved back inside the bands. The immediate near term focus will be price action around the 200 day ema.
Resistance
• 3.5995 – 20-day moving average
• 3.6706 – 50-day moving average
• 3.7910 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the March high to yesterday's low
Support
• 3.1765 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 3.1243 – Confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (January low to March high) and the 200-day exponential moving average
• 2.9183 – 200-day simple moving average
Heating Oil (Continuous)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The Crude Spread is opening the U.S. session up 0.15 at 3.61. Momentum indicators remain deeply oversold but have begun to cross higher, suggesting downside momentum may be starting to fade. Most of the overnight trade occurred below the lower Bollinger Band following yesterday's close beneath that level, though the spread has since recovered back above it.
Yesterday's low pushed the spread through both the 200-day exponential moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-May rally, which converge near 3.37. The market also traded below that area overnight before recovering, making it the key technical level to monitor in the near term.
Resistance
• 5.82 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to yesterday's low
• 6.42 – 50-day exponential moving average
• 6.82 – 20-day moving average
Support
• 3.37 – 200-day exponential moving average
• 3.07 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the December low to the May high
• 2.09 – 200-day simple moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGN6)
Natural Gas is opening the U.S. session down 0.05 after posting a new high for the week overnight. Despite the strength earlier in the session, the market appears to be setting up for a potential reversal as prices pull back from recent highs. Momentum indicators remain in neutral territory, which suggests that any reversal signal may carry less significance than it would if momentum were at more extreme levels.
Price is currently holding just above both the 50-day exponential moving average at 3.187 and the 20-day moving average at 3.174. These levels will be important near-term support zones, as a break below them could signal a loss of the recent upside momentum. Conversely, holding above these moving averages would keep the short-term technical outlook constructive.
Resistance
• 3.344 – Upper Bollinger Band
• 3.396 – June 1 reversal-bar high
• 3.482 – 200-day exponential moving average
Support
• 3.187 – 50-day exponential moving average
• 3.174 – 20-day moving average
• 3.005 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGN6)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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