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- Daily Energy Market Update June 16, 2026
Overnight, crude extended Monday's selloff as the market continued to remove geopolitical risk premium following confirmation of the U.S.-Iran agreement and the planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI traded to fresh three-month lows overnight while Brent briefly fell below $80/bbl for the first time since early March. Selling pressure accelerated as traders priced in the potential return of disrupted Gulf exports and a normalization of regional crude flows over the coming weeks.
Despite the sharp decline, the market's focus is beginning to shift from the headline announcement to implementation risk. Questions remain regarding the pace of vessel movements through Hormuz, mine-clearing operations, insurance coverage, and how quickly exports can return to pre-conflict levels. While the agreement is expected to be formally signed later this week, physical market participants continue to await greater clarity on the timing of restored flows.
The collapse in front-end risk premium has also weighed heavily on time spreads across the crude complex, with nearby spreads continuing to narrow as concerns over immediate supply shortages ease. However, several analysts have noted that inventories and strategic stockpiles depleted during the conflict will need to be rebuilt, which could help support physical demand once logistical bottlenecks begin to clear.
For today's session, traders will be focused on whether crude can find support near key technical levels after the market's over 15% since the peace deal first surfaced on june 11th. While momentum remains firmly lower, much of the initial peace-deal repricing has already occurred, shifting attention toward tanker traffic, export activity, and any new details surrounding Friday's formal signing of the agreement.
Crude (CLN6)
Crude is opening the U.S. session down 2.03 at 78.72 after extending its recent decline overnight. Prices are currently trading below the Lower Bollinger Band, which comes in at 79.48, and are approaching the post-conflict low of 77.22. The continued selloff reflects ongoing liquidation of geopolitical risk premium following the U.S.–Iran agreement and expectations for a gradual normalization of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Momentum indicators continue to make new lows and remain pointed lower, suggesting downside pressure remains firmly in place. With prices now testing major support levels, traders will be watching closely to see whether the market can stabilize near the April low or if selling extends toward the next Fibonacci retracement levels.
Resistance
• 79.48 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 88.65 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to today's low
• 91.81 – Confluence of the 20-day moving average, 50-day moving average, and 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
• 77.22 – April low
• 74.35 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the December low to the May high
• 71.11 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CLN6)
Heating Oil (HON6):
Heating Oil is opening the U.S. session lower at 3.1976, extending the recent selloff and continuing to trade below the Lower Bollinger Band, which currently sits at 3.2256. The market remains under pressure as traders continue to liquidate positions following the sharp decline in energy prices. With prices now below the early June lows, the next major downside target is the April low at 3.0875.
Momentum indicators continue to point lower and have weakened further as the market pushes into new short-term lows. While prices are approaching an area of technical support, selling pressure remains dominant, and traders will be watching closely to see whether support near the April low can slow the decline or if the move extends toward deeper retracement levels.
Resistance
• 3.2256 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 3.5269 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to this morning's low
• 3.6310 – Confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement, 20-day moving average, and 50-day moving average
Support
• 3.0875 – April low
• 3.0430 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the January low to the May high
• 2.7985 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Heating Oil (HON6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The Crude Spread is opening the U.S. session down 0.65 at 3.68, extending the recent decline as pressure continues across the front of the crude curve. The spread has broken below its lower Bollinger Band support at 4.09 and is approaching key support levels established during April. The narrowing structure reflects the continued removal of near-term geopolitical risk premiums and expectations for improving supply availability.
Momentum indicators have crossed back lower and are making new lows, suggesting downside pressure remains intact. With the spread now trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-May rally, traders will be closely monitoring support at 3.07, followed by the April lows at 2.78 and 2.11.
Resistance
• 4.09 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 6.43 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to this morning's low
• 7.00–7.28 – Confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement, 20-day moving average, and 50-day moving average
Support
• 3.07 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the December low to the May high
• 2.78 – April 17 low
• 2.11 – April 8 low
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGN6)
Natural Gas is opening the U.S. session unchanged at 3.15 after rallying to an overnight high of 3.20. Yesterday's trade produced a bullish engulfing candle off the lower Bollinger Band, signaling the market might be forming a short term low. The market also posted a meaningful close back above the 50-day moving average, a level that has acted as an important pivot on a closing basis throughout the past month.
Momentum indicators remain near oversold territory but have begun to turn higher, suggesting downside pressure may be fading. If prices can continue to hold above the 50-day moving average, the market can push higher towards the upper Bollinger Band at 3.337.
Resistance
• 3.170 – 20-day moving average
• 3.207 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the June high to yesterday's low
• 3.251 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
• 3.115 – 50-day moving average
• 3.017 – Yesterday's low
• 3.003 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGN26)
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