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- Daily Energy Market Update June 15, 2026
Crude oil came under heavy pressure over the weekend after the U.S. and Iran confirmed an agreement to end hostilities in the Middle East, removing a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into the market since late February. The deal includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing expected later this week in Switzerland. The announcement triggered aggressive selling across the energy complex, with WTI falling nearly 5% overnight and trading back toward the $80/bbl level after briefly trading above $110/bbl during the height of the conflict.
The market's immediate focus has shifted from supply disruption concerns to the timing and pace of the normalization of crude flows through the Strait. While the agreement paves the way for the resumption of transit, uncertainty remains regarding vessel movements, mine-clearing operations, insurance coverage, and the willingness of shipping companies to quickly return to the region. Market participants will be closely monitoring tanker traffic and export activity over the coming days to gauge how rapidly physical flows can recover.
Despite the sharp decline in outright prices, several analysts cautioned that the return to normal operating conditions may take longer than the market is currently pricing in. Energy infrastructure, logistics networks, and export channels will require time to normalize after months of disruption. In addition, inventories and strategic stockpiles that were drawn down during the conflict are expected to be replenished, which could provide an underlying source of demand even as exports begin to recover.
For now, the market appears to be pricing in a best-case scenario for the peace agreement, with traders aggressively unwinding geopolitical length accumulated during the conflict. As a result, near-term price action is likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the formal signing of the agreement, vessel traffic through Hormuz, and any indications regarding the pace at which Iranian and regional crude exports return to global markets.
Crude (CLN6)
Crude is opening the U.S. session down 4.65 at 80.23 after overnight news of the U.S.–Iran agreement pressured prices lower, with the market trading down to an overnight low of 79.70. The decline has brought crude directly to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the December 2025 low to the May 18 high. Prices are also testing the lower end of the trading range established since the conflict began.
Momentum is pointing lower, though the market has not yet broken below the April 17 low at 77.22, which remains the next major downside level to watch. While technical support is beginning to emerge, geopolitical developments remain the primary driver of price action in the near term.
Resistance
• 80.73 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 85.72 – Previous support zone with multiple lows holding since early May
• 89.44 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May 18 high to the overnight low
Support
• 77.22 – April 17 low
• 74.35 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the December low to the post-conflict high
• 71.03 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CLN6)
Heating Oil (HON6):
Heating Oil is opening the U.S. session lower after overnight selling accelerated on news of a potential peace agreement involving Iran, reducing concerns over supply disruptions across the energy complex. July Heating Oil traded down to an overnight low of 3.2502 before rebounding to 3.3019 to begin the U.S. session.
Prices are currently trading in an important technical support zone where the Lower Bollinger Band aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the January low to the May high. While momentum remains oversold following the recent decline, geopolitical developments continue to be the primary driver of price action.
Resistance
• 3.4600 – Pivot level / previous lows
• 3.5668 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to the overnight low
• 3.6492 – Confluence of the 50-day and 20-day moving averages
Support
• 3.0875 – April low
• 3.0432 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-May rally
• 2.7985 – 200-day moving average
Heating Oil (HON6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The Crude Spread is opening the U.S. session down 1.34 at 4.21 after trading to an overnight low of 4.02. While prices have recovered modestly from the overnight low, the bounce has been limited and the spread remains below the Lower Bollinger Band, which is currently positioned at 4.48.
The spread had already broken below key support at 6.00 on Friday with increased expectations for a potential agreement with Iran over the weekend. Continued pressure across the energy complex has accelerated the decline, pushing the spread to its lowest levels in close to two months
Resistance
• 4.48 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 6.00 – Previous lows / pivot area
• 6.65 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May high to the overnight low
Support
• 3.07 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the December low to the May 18 high
• 2.11 – April 8 low
• 2.06 – 200-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGN6)
Natural Gas is opening the U.S. session down 0.04 at 3.082 after trading to an overnight low of 3.017. Prices have since bounced but remain below the 50-day moving average at 3.114, a level that has now clearly shifted from support to resistance following last week's breakdown.
Momentum indicators continue to trend lower but have not yet reached oversold territory, suggesting there may still be room for additional downside pressure. The recent weakness has pushed prices toward the lower end of the trading range established over the past several weeks, with traders closely monitoring whether support near the late-May lows can hold.
Resistance
• 3.114 – 50-day moving average
• 3.168 – 20-day moving average
• 3.249 – Last week's high
Support
• 2.997 – Lower Bollinger Band
• 2.978 – May 27 low
Natural Gas (NGN6)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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