- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update June 12, 2026
Energy Market Update
Energy markets are entering the U.S. session with risk premium continuing to unwind after reports that the United States and Iran are moving toward a framework agreement that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump cancelled previously threatened strikes on Iran, while multiple reports indicate negotiations are focused on nuclear and economic issues and that a memorandum of understanding could be signed as soon as this weekend. As a result, Brent crude fell more than 3% overnight to its lowest level since mid-April, while WTI also dropped sharply as traders priced out some of the geopolitical disruption premium that had been built into the market.
Despite the sharp decline in crude, the physical market remains far from balanced. Inventories across key regions remain relatively tight following weeks of disrupted Gulf exports, and vessel traffic through Hormuz remains below normal levels. Analysts continue to warn that unless oil flows normalize quickly, seasonal demand growth during the peak summer consumption period could tighten balances significantly by late July. Several banks and trading houses noted that current price weakness reflects improving expectations for a diplomatic resolution rather than a full restoration of supply.
Fundamental developments were generally bearish for the longer-term outlook. OPEC revised its demand projections lower for next year while maintaining a more constructive view further out, reinforcing expectations for a gradually loosening supply-demand balance. Several major market forecasters have also trimmed longer-term price expectations, citing a combination of softer demand growth and increasing supply. Even so, analysts note that inventories remain relatively tight and geopolitical uncertainty could continue to provide support for prices in the near term.
Natural gas traders are focused on a different set of drivers. U.S. natural gas futures recovered from an overnight two-week low after testing support near 3.03 before rebounding toward the 50-day moving average. Weather-driven demand remains mixed, while LNG export utilization and storage injections continue to be closely monitored. The technical backdrop has weakened following the first daily close below the 50-day moving average in more than two weeks, suggesting near-term momentum has shifted lower even as broader summer cooling demand expectations remain supportive for the medium-term outlook.
Crude (CLN6)
Crude is opening the U.S. session down 2.90 at 84.80 after posting a large bearish engulfing candle yesterday and closing at its lowest level in over two weeks. Prices have broken below the key 85.00 support level that had held on multiple tests since early May. Momentum is oversold, but geopolitical developments are likely to remain the primary driver of price action in the near term.
Resistance
85.50-86.00 – Previous support zone
91.96 – 50-day moving average
93.36 – 20-day moving average
Support
82.58 – Lower Bollinger Band
80.24 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (December low to May high)
Crude (CLN6)
Heating Oil (HON6):
Heating oil is opening sharply lower after posting a large bearish engulfing candle yesterday and closing below its lowest settlement in over two weeks at 3.5171. Overnight selling pushed prices through support at 3.4466, extending the recent decline. Momentum remains oversold and had begun to turn higher earlier this week, but positive developments surrounding an agreement with Iran triggered broad selling across the energy complex.
Resistance
3.4466 – Previous low / support zone
3.6534 – 50-day moving average
3.6784 – 20-day moving average
Support
3.3207 – Lower Bollinger Band
3.2882 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (January low to May high)
3.0439 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Heating Oil (HON6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude spread posted similar price action yesterday, settling at 6.56. Overnight, the spread came under pressure and is down 1.28 heading into the U.S. session. Momentum remains oversold and has crossed higher, suggesting downside momentum may be fading. However, in the current environment, the broader pressure on the energy complex stemming from developments surrounding Iran is likely to have a greater influence on price action than technical indicators.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.86 — Previous lows / pivot zone
6.96 — 50-day moving average
7.73 — 20-day moving average
Support
4.98 — Lower Bollinger Band
4.57 — 50% Fibonacci retracement (December low to May high)
3.07 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGN6)
Natural Gas is up 0.02 at 3.103 to begin the U.S. session. Overnight trading saw NG fall to a new two-week low of 3.031 before staging a rebound. The recovery carried prices back to the 50-day moving average at 3.116.
Yesterday marked the first close below the 50-day moving average in more than two weeks, making that level an important pivot point on a closing basis. Momentum indicators remain in neutral territory but continue to trend lower, suggesting downside pressure remains present.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.116 – 50-day moving average
3.169 – 20-day moving average
3.249 – Wednesday's high
Support
2.990 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.978 – Late-May low
Natural Gas (NGN26)
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply