- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update July 9, 2026
Crude oil is trading firmer this morning as geopolitical developments continue to outweigh fundamental data. Renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran have added a fresh risk premium to the market, with traders once again focusing on the potential for disruptions to Middle East supply rather than inventory data.
The market remains particularly sensitive to headlines surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian export infrastructure. While physical oil flows have not experienced a meaningful disruption, any escalation that threatens exports or shipping through the region could quickly increase the geopolitical risk premium and keep volatility elevated across the energy complex. Conversely, any signs of de-escalation would likely remove some of the geopolitical premium that has been rebuilt over the past two sessions.
Yesterday's U.S. inventory data took a back seat to geopolitical developments, with the market remaining focused on evolving headlines out of the Middle East rather than the latest supply data. For now, price action continues to be driven more by headlines than by traditional supply-and-demand indicators.
The focus today will remain on developments in the Middle East and whether tensions continue to build or begin to ease. Until there is greater clarity, expect geopolitical news to remain the primary catalyst for crude and refined product markets.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude oil is opening the U.S. session up 0.82 at 74.32 (7:00 a.m.).
After opening higher, crude traded down to 72.37 before rallying back into positive territory. Yesterday, prices broke above the 200-day moving average and briefly traded beyond the 20-day moving average but ultimately closed back below both levels. This confluence of resistance appears to be slowing the current rebound.
Momentum continues to point higher while remaining in oversold territory, suggesting there is still room for the rally to extend before momentum returns to more neutral levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
74.82 – 20-day moving average
86.37 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (April high to July 2 low)
88.47 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
70.49 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (July 2 low to yesterday's high)
67.04 – July 2 low
62.28 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is opening slightly higher at 3.6631 this morning following yesterday's strong rally.
Yesterday's price action broke above both the 50-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band, ultimately closing above the upper Bollinger Band. While prices have pulled back from yesterday's high of 3.7714, they continue to trade above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating the market remains in a strong short-term uptrend.
Momentum has moved into overbought territory but continues to point higher, suggesting the rally could extend further before a meaningful pullback develops.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.7943 – June 3 high
3.9306 – Double top from mid-May
Support
3.6343 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.4912 – 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread opened higher overnight but has since pulled back and is currently up 0.18 at 3.50.
Yesterday, the spread briefly traded above the 20-day moving average but closed back below it, extending the multi-week pattern of failing to get a close above this key resistance level. Overnight, the spread opened above the 20-day moving average and is currently trading right at that level, making it an important area to watch during today's session.
Momentum crossed higher a few days ago and continues to point higher while remaining in oversold territory, suggesting there is still room for the recovery to continue before momentum normalizes.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.02 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to July low)
6.19 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average
6.42 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
2.32 – 200-day moving average
1.38 – July reversal bar low
0.50 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is opening the session unchanged at 3.211 following a large bearish reversal bar yesterday.
After trading above the upper Bollinger Band and appearing ready to break out of its multi-week trading range, prices reversed sharply lower and closed back near the middle of that range. The failed breakout further confirms that the market is stuck in its range.
Momentum is currently pointing lower but remains in neutral territory. As a result, both yesterday's bearish reversal and the shift lower in momentum carry less significance given that price and momentum are still positioned within their respective neutral ranges.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.225 – 20-day moving average
3.318 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.377 – Double top from late June
Support
3.192 – 50-day moving average
3.131 – Lower Bollinger Band
3.059 – June 15 reversal bar low
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply